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  • Commerzbank德国商业Das slog步履维艰The second-biggest bank in Europes strongest economy still faces an uphill task欧洲最强经济体的第二大仍然面对提高业绩任务。Jul 27th 2013 | Berlin |From the print editionCOMMERZBANKS marketing materials show a woman running in a grey, hooded jumper, headphones in her ears. Her eyes are locked on the path ahead in determination to finish her workout. This is probably meant to flatter the banks customers as gritty and hard-working. But it is a better metaphor for the bank itself. It is on a long, hard road back to health, a journey that exemplifies the painful reshaping of Europes troubled banking system to be smaller, safer and more domestic.德国商业的营销材料上画着一名女子,身穿灰色衣跑步,带着连衣帽,耳朵里塞着耳机。眼神坚毅,死死盯着前方的路,志在完成自己的锻炼计划。这可能是在讨好自己的客户,暗指他们都是坚韧不拔,工作勤奋。但是这个隐喻或许更贴合自身的实际。德国商业离回到良性发展还有很长的路。这是欧洲陷入危机的体系转向更小,更安全和更本土化的痛苦转型的很好的例。Commerzbanks initial trajectory through the crisis resembles that of another European lender, Britains Lloyds Banking Group (LBG). Like LBG, it was a big bank but not the biggest in the country—Deutsche Bank is Germanys colossus. Like Lloyds, it undertook a disastrous domestic transaction at the worst possible time, buying Dresdner Bank in the summer of 2008 just weeks before LBG gobbled up HBOS. And like the British bank, it quickly ended up tapping state coffers to survive.德国商业度过危机的初始轨迹很想另一家欧洲,英国的劳埃德斯集团。跟劳埃德斯一样,德国商业是本国的一家大型,但却不是最大的,德国最大的是德意志。德国商业同样经历了一次灾难性的国内收购。它在2008年夏天买下了德累斯顿,这是在劳埃德斯吞并苏格兰哈利法斯克几周之后。同样的,很快以向国库求救自保结束。The parallels between the two are less obvious now. LBGs shares have risen by 33% in the past three months, and by 133% in the past year. The banks share price hovers just below the price the British government paid to buy its 39% stake, which will soon be sold. Things look far less fizzy at Commerzbank. At the time of the rescue deal the banks boss, Martin Blessing, declared that state ownership should last a maximum of 36 months. More than four years on, its shares still lag the broader index of European banks; its price-to-book ratio is one of the lowest on the continent (see chart). Its 2012 net profit came in at a mere 6m euros(7.7m dollars).两者现在的处境有所不同。劳埃德斯的股价在过去的三个月中上涨了33%,在去年上涨了133%。该的股价稍稍低于英国政府购买其39%股份时的价格,英国政府很快就会将这笔股份卖掉。德国商业的处境则要惨得多。德国政府救助与其交易的时候,老板Martin Blessing说,国有权最多持续36个月。而现在,四年过去了,其股价仍旧低于欧洲的大盘指数。其市净率在欧洲处于最低水平。而在2012年的净利润也只有600万欧(770万美元)。Rumours that the German government might sell its 17% stake to a foreign bank were scotched this week. Newspapers speculate whether the bank might exit the DAX, the countrys benchmark stockmarket index, leaving Deutsche as the only member bank. Deutsche itself still labours to plump up its own thin capital cushion.本周,德国政府出售其控股的17%给一家外国的谣言四起。媒体纷纷推测德国商业会不会退出德国DAX指数,这样该指数就只剩德意志一家股了。德意志也忙着增加其缓冲资金。Commerzbank can point to several forces beyond its control. The euro-zone crisis weighs heavily. The restructuring of Greek government debt handed it a big loss. Historically low interest rates have depressed income. Competition from Germanys many small savings banks and co-operatives puts pressure on fees; online banks are adding to the pressure. A downturn in shipbuilding has hit Commerzbanks big portfolio of loans in that industry. The Basel 3 rules have prompted the bank to retain capital rather than dole it out to shareholders. (The bank estimates that its Tier-1 core capital ratio under Basel 3 is 8.4% after a May capital-raising.)德国商业能将原因归咎于几个它无法控制的因素。欧元区危机无疑是最大的因素。希腊政府债务重组给其造成了重大损失。史上最低的利率也减少了其收入。来自德国的许多小型储蓄的竞争也使其降低自身费用,网上也增加了其压力。造船业的衰退也使得其在造船业德组合贷款业务受到沉重打击。巴塞尔3资本规定使得德国商业只能保留资本,而不能发放给股东。(估计,在巴塞尔3规定下,其一级核心资本比率在五月融资之后达到8.4%)For one bank to have had so much bad luck prompts the question of just how much carelessness, not misfortune, is to blame. Like many European banks, both Commerzbank and Dresdner invested in subprime-mortgage-backed assets before the crisis. And like many of its continental peers, the bank was also a big international lender against chunky assets in areas like shipping, aviation and property. About a quarter of its 18.3 billion euros shipping portfolio is non-performing; it is expected to take a charge against lending in Detroit when it next reports results.对于一家来说,这么多倒霉事儿遇到一起,只能怪其太粗心,而不能说太不幸了。跟许多其他欧洲一样,德国商业和德累斯顿在危机之前都投资了次贷资产。这个也借贷给船舶业,航空业和房地产业。其在船舶业投资达183亿欧,其中有四分之一毫无收益,等下次报告出来该行有可能向底特律的借贷提起指控。Analysts want Commerzbank to keep shedding these “non-core” assets, which stood at 151 billion euros at the end of 2012. Some are easier to offload than others. Holdings of peripheral euro-zone government bonds can be gently unwound by letting them run off. But shipping and property loans are longer-term and less liquid, which is why they are now being treated more harshly under the Basel 3 rules. Commerzbank did this month at last manage to sell the British operations of EuroHypo, its commercial-property arm.分析员希望德国商业能放弃非核心资产,这些在2012年底占到1510亿欧。有些很容易脱手。所持欧元区其他国家政府的债券会轻微受损。但是船舶业和房地产业的贷款是长期的,流动性也差,这也是在巴塞尔3规则下更严厉的原因。德国商业这个月末最终准备卖掉欧洲抵押的英国公司,其商业地产分。As Commerzbank slims down these parts of its balance-sheet, a more Germanic lender is slowly emerging. The strategy is plausible. The combination with Dresdner gave Commerzbank an enviably big retail-branch network and customer base in Europes strongest economy. The Mittelstandsbank, the division lending to Germanys small and medium-sized, mostly family-owned businesses, is in decent health: 30% of Mittelstand companies are customers, and the pre-tax return on equity in this unit was 28.6% in 2012, against 3.1% for the group overall. As these firms go into global markets, where savings banks cannot follow, Commerzbank has a shot at boosting its business with them. Expansion in Poland looks sensible.随着德国商业将这些从资产负债表中除去,一个更德国的借贷者出现了。这个战略看起来是有效的。跟德累斯顿的合并会使得德国商业在欧洲最强经济体拥有一个令人羡慕的大型零售网络和顾客基础。中小企业掌管德国的中小企业贷款业务,这些中小企业中很多都是家族企业,2012年,这一业务的税前回报为28.6%,整体业务只有3.1%的回报。随着这些企业的国际化,储蓄就无能为力了。德国商业有意拓展跟他们的业务。在波兰的扩张看起来很有用。Yet the bank is still some way from turning this vision into reality. A banking consultant quips that the maths of the Dresdner deal amount to “one plus one equals one”. And a domestic focus has its downsides. Fierce local competition from the savings banks and co-operatives will not go away. Nor will the drag from the euro zones economic prospects: interest rates will remain low as long as inflation stays subdued.然而,德国商业还是应该回到现实。一个业顾问指出,这次的德累斯顿交易是一次亏本买卖。国内的重点业务呈下降趋势。来自储蓄的激烈的本地竞争不会停止。欧元区的经济预期是只要通货膨胀得到抑制,利率将会持续走低。这也会拖累复兴。So Mr Blessing and his team have little choice but to concentrate on the nuts and bolts. That includes making more cuts in branches and staff (branches have aly fallen from about 1,500 to 1,200), controlling their tempo so that the bank can reap savings without battering its franchise. One part of this is greater flexibility in the offerings at each branch. Not every location needs an expert in everything; more advice can be given online or over the phone. Another is growth in its online division, comdirect. Commerzbank has the scale to build a sophisticated offering; savings banks and co-operatives may not.因此,Blessing先生跟他的团队没有多大选择,只能是集中精力做好细节工作。包括减少分机构,裁员(分机构已经从1500个减少到1200个了),控制好节奏,只有这样才能从存款中获利,并且不影响其经营。这在各分有很大的灵活性。不是每个地方都需要专家,可以通过电话或者网络提供建议。还有一个是网上分的增加。德国商业能提供各种复杂的务,但是储蓄则不能。Such strengths should eventually return Commerzbank to fitness. But the miserable share price suggests that investors expect a period of plodding before it is back to running at full tilt.这些措施应该最终能使得德国商业回到正轨。但是其可怜的股价意味着投资者期望其走出困境之前有一段时间的辛勤工作。 /201308/250788
  • Tsunamis are powerful waves caused by underwater earthquakes or eruptions that can crashover ten stories tall into a coastline.海啸是由海底的地震或者火山喷发引起的足以把一个十层高楼淹没的强大海浪。If you were sailing far from shore, how would you feel about a tremendous tsunami heading your way?如果你正远离海岸航行,这时遭遇了海啸,是什么样的感觉呢?Actually, you wouldnt notice a tsunami at all.事实上,你根本不会注意到海啸。In deep water, a tsunami raises the oceans surfaceonly about one or two feet—much less than ordinary ocean waves.在深海中,海啸只会掀起一或两英尺的海浪-远远低于普通的海浪。Whats more, it takes up to an hour for a single tsunami to roll by.更重要的是,一次海啸最多一个小时就过去了。How can a wave be so deadly to a coastline, but so tame inthe open ocean?为什么对于海岸如此致命的海浪在公海中如此温驯呢?The energy of a wave has more to do with how deep the water churns than how tall the waverises.海浪的力量与水层波动的深度而不是海浪的高度有关。Ordinary waves can be rather tall, but they dont go very deep.常波可能很高,但是它们水体波动的深度并不深。Whats more theres nevermuch distance between one ordinary waves crest and the one following it.更重要的是常波前后的波峰之间并没有太大的距离。The distance betweenwaves is called “wavelength,” and its another secret of a tsunamis strength.波之间的距离被称为“波长”,这是海啸力量的另一个秘密。While ordinary waves only tug at the surface water, tsunamischurn the water all the way to thedeepest ocean floor!尽管常波只是在水表面生成,但是海啸可以在最深的海底引起水层波动使其产生。They also have very long wavelengths—a hundred miles or more.它们同样有很长的波长一百英里或更多。Although tsunamis raise the surface only a foot or so in deep water, they carry a lot of energy.虽然海啸通过深海中的水层波动只能提升水平面一英尺左右,但是它们带来了大量的能量。When a tsunami approaches a coastline, the water gets shallower.当海啸接近海岸线时,水的深度逐渐变浅。This causes friction at the frontof the wave and slows it down.导致波前擦,使其速度变慢。The faster moving back of the wave piles into the slower front,squeezing the whole hundred mile tsunami like an accordion.快速前进的波浪与前面速度较慢的波浪重叠,像手风琴那样挤压这些整个百里长的海啸。Just as a rug will crumple and rise if its scrunched by an opening door, the tsunami gets taller.正如由于门开时被压住而弄皱卷起的地毯,海浪就越来越高。By the time it hits the beach, it canbe a hundred feet high!当它到达海滩的时候,它可以达到一百英尺。 /201408/320556
  • Americas big banks reported earnings for the second quarter. The headline figures looked buoyant, partly because of lower operational and litigation costs. Net income at JPMorgan Chase rose by 31% to .5 billion; Bank of Americas profit was up by 63% to billion; and Citigroups quarterly profit of .2 billion was its best since 2007. Goldman Sachs saw income double to .9 billion. But with the outlook for growth subdued in the banking industry, margins down and more costly regulations coming in, investors were unimpressed.美国的各大发布了第二季度的营收。数据显示营收有所上涨,部分原因是运营和诉讼费用的减少。根大通公司的净收入增长了31%,达到65亿美元;美国的利润增加了63%之多,达到了40亿美元;花旗的季度利润达到了42亿美元,是自从2007年至今的最好业绩。高盛的收入翻番,达到了19亿美元。但是随着对业未来增长前景的看衰,利润减少以及管理费用的增加,投资者并没有为之所动。Americas Federal Energy Regulatory Commission fined Barclays 3m for allegedly manipulating electricity prices in four states in the American West to benefit the banks derivatives positions. Barclays is fighting the claim and will take the matter to court. JPMorgan Chase was said to be in talks to settle with the FERC in a similar case.美国联邦能源管理委员会给巴克莱开出了4亿5300万美元的罚单,原因是后者据称为了使其衍生产品卖得更好,在美国西部的四个州操纵电价。巴克莱予以反击,并将在法庭上解决此事。根大通也卷入类似风波。;Fabulous Fab;神奇的法布The trial got under way in Manhattan of Fabrice Tourre, a former banker at Goldman Sachs, on civil charges of securities fraud. Mr Tourre allegedly did not tell investors that a hedge fund had helped him select the assets in a portfolio of mortgage bonds, which it then bet against. The investors lost billion.在曼哈顿对于前高盛家法布里·托雷尔的审讯正在进行中,其涉嫌进行券欺诈。据称,托雷尔先生未告知其产品投资者一家做空这些抵押贷款的对冲基金参与了产品的设计。导致投资者蒙受10亿美元的损失。A judge allowed a billion lawsuit, brought by the Justice Department and claiming that Standard amp; Poors intentionally misled investors, to proceed. The government alleges that Samp;P produced inflated ratings between 2004 and 2007 to please its clients in the financial industry.一位法官接受了一起涉案金额50亿的案件,原告是司法部,指控标准普尔蓄意误导投资者。该案件正在接受审理。政府控诉标准普尔在2004年到2007年期间为了取悦其金融业的客户,在评级中作假。A Chinese executive at GlaxoSmithKline appeared on state television giving details of what the government alleges to be graft at the drugmakers operations in the country. Four executives are accused of paying bribes to medical staff to entice them to sell GSKs products. GSK said its Chinese staff are expected to abide by the law and it had ;zero tolerance; for bribery.葛兰素史克公司的一位中国主管出现在中国国家电视台解释中国政府所说的运营中行贿的细节。四个主管被指控贿赂医药人员怂恿其销售葛兰素史克的产品。葛兰素史克表示其中国员工应该遵守法律,并且其对贿赂持零容忍态度。How Lou can you go?楼能走多远?Chinas economy slowed again, growing by 7.5% in the second quarter. The finance minister, Lou Jiwei, caused a stir when he reportedly said he expected GDP for the year to rise by 7%, which is below the governments 7.5% target (Mr Lous figure was rewritten by the state press to reflect the party line). With industrial production also slowing, some economists wonder whether it is time for them, too, to rewrite their forecasts.中国经济再次放缓,第二季度增幅仅为7.5%。财政部长楼继伟在其报告中表示他预期今年GDP的增长为7%,低于政府7.5%的目标,这引起了不小的震动。(为了跟党的方针相呼应,楼的数据被重新更正)。随着工业生产的放缓,一些经济学家开始思考:对他们来说,是不是也应该重新预测经济走势了?Googles effort to end an antitrust inquiry into its search business in Europe appeared to be in trouble when Joaquín Almunia, the EUs competition chief, declared that it had so far not done enough ;to overcome our concerns;. In April Google submitted several remedies to the EU to address complaints that it promotes its own services over those of its rivals in search results.谷歌试图结束欧洲对其搜索业务的反信任调查的努力再次陷入麻烦,欧盟竞争委员会主席Joaquín Almunia称谷歌到目前为止尚未做出足够措施来解除我们的担忧。四月,谷歌向欧盟递交了几项改进措施,并投诉其只是在竞争对手的搜索结果上推广其自身务。Yahoos earnings were mixed. The internet companys net income grew by half compared with the same quarter last year, to 1m, but revenue was down, as was the price it charges per ad. Investors expressed confidence, however, in Marissa Mayers strategy (she took over as chief executive a year ago), pushing the share price to a five-year high.雅虎公司的营收账目混乱不堪。与去年同一季度相比,这家互联网公司的净收入增长了50%,达到3.31亿美元,然而收益却由于每广告的收费下降而下降了。但是,投资者们都对玛丽莎·梅耶尔(于一年前接任雅虎首席执行官)的战略计划信心十足,雅虎股票已被推高至五年来的最高值。From dreams to nightmares从梦到梦魇Investigators looking at the cause of a fire on a parked Boeing Dreamliner at Heathrow airport found no initial evidence that the jets batteries were the source. Several charred components have come under scrutiny, including the planes emergency transmitter. All Dreamliners were grounded worldwide for three months earlier this year because of overheating batteries.对停在英国希斯罗机场的波音梦幻客机的起火原因,调查员表示,目前初步发现没有据表明电池是飞机起火的原因。包括飞机应急发射器在内的几个被烧焦的部件已经受到了严格的审查。今年早些时候,所有的梦幻客机由于电池组过热在全球范围内停飞三个月。In Argentina a joint venture was announced between Chevron and YPF, the state-run energy company, to develop the Vaca Muerta shale formation, one of the biggest outside North America. Vaca Muerta was discovered in 2010 when YPF was majority-owned by Spains Repsol. The venture with Chevron is YPFs first big deal since it was expropriated by the Argentine government last year.在阿根廷,由雪弗兰公司和一家阿根廷国营企业YPF组成的合资企业,宣称将开发瓦卡姆尔塔这个除北美外最大的页岩潜油层。瓦卡姆尔塔在2010年被发现,当时YPF的大部分股份由西班牙雷普索尔石油公司持有。这次与雪佛龙组成的合资公司是YPF自去年被阿根廷政府国有化以来首次大规模的交易。Bernie Ecclestone, the chief executive of the Formula One Group, was charged by a German court in a case over an alleged m bribe to a banker who was involved in the sale of the car-racing championship to CVC Capital in 2005. Mr Ecclestone has acknowledged the payment but insists he was being blackmailed and rejects the charge.一级方程式赛车的首席执行官伯尼·埃克莱斯顿因向一位家行贿4400万美元被德国一家法庭起诉。这位家曾在2005年参与私募股权基金公司对赛车锦标赛的收购案。埃克莱斯顿先生承认付了费用,然而坚持声称他遭到勒索并对控告表示抗议。Rossignol, a French ski-maker, was bought by Altor, a Swedish private-equity firm. The global ski market has gone downhill from its peak in the 1980s partly because more people are renting skis rather than buying them. The Nordic firm hopes to make Rossignol more profitable by expanding into outdoor wear, a strategy it tried with Helly Hansen, a Norwegian sports-apparel firm that had struggled before Altor bought it in 2006.法国滑雪板制造商金鸡被瑞典一家私营公司Altor收购。全球滑雪板市场在20世纪80年代经历高峰期,此后不断走下坡路。部分原因是越来越多的人选择租用滑雪板而不是自己购买。这家北欧公司试图通过拓展户外装备业务让金鸡盈利增加,其曾在挪威运动饰公司哈里汉森实施过这项战略,哈里汉森于2006年被Altor公司收购。201307/249858
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