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2018年03月19日 09:16:50来源:医生互动

By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans made that year, all the home loans made that year,were liars loans,40 percent.截至2006年,当年发放的所有贷款,当年的所有房屋贷款中四成是欺骗性贷款。高达四成啊,亲。And this is despite a warning from the industrys own antifraud experts that said that these loans were an open invitation to fraudsters, and that they had a fraud incidence of 90 percent,nine zero.行业自身的反欺诈专家曾经警告,这些贷款简直是引狼入室,诈骗率高达九成,百分之九十。尽管有这些警告,问题还是发生了。In response to that, the industry first started calling these loans liars loans, which lacks a certain subtlety, and second, massively increased them, and no government regulator ever required or encouraged any lender to make a liars loan or anyone to purchase a liars loan,and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.作为回应,金融行业首先开始称呼这些贷款为欺骗性借贷,听上去不太悦耳。其次,大幅增加这种贷款。没有任何政府监管机构要求或者鼓励任何借方放出欺骗性贷款要求或鼓励任何人去购买欺骗性借贷,这当然也包括房利美和房地美。This came from the lenders because of the fraud recipe.由于欺诈的成因和模式,借方难辞其咎。What happened to appraisal fraud?估价欺诈行为又是怎样呢?It expanded remarkably as well.同样膨胀得非常了得。By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,90 percent of appraisers reported that they had been subject to coercion from the lenders trying to get them to inflate an appraisal.2007年,有份针对估价师的调查,9成受访的估价师表示,他们受到借方的胁迫,要求他们对估值进行灌水(夸大价值)。In other words, both forms of fraud became absolutely endemic and normal,and this is what drove the bubble.换言之,两种形式的欺诈行为成为常态,疯狂肆虐,泡沫于是成型。What happened in the governmental sector?政府部门的情况呢?Well, the government, as I told you,when we were the savings and loan regulators,we could only deal with our industry,and if people gave up their federal deposit insurance,we couldnt do anything to them.政府啊,不提也罢,说多了都是泪,我们监管储贷的时候,我们只能处理我们负责的行业,如果借方放弃他们的联邦存款保险,我们就将束手无策。Congress, it may strike you as impossible, but actually did something intelligent in 1994,and passed the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,the explicit, statutory authority to ban liars loans by every lender,whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.国会,说起来你们可能不信,在1994年实际上倒是干了点实事,通过了《房屋所有权和股权保护法》,法案赋权美联储,仅限美联储明确的法律权力去取缔来自任何借方的欺骗性贷款业务,无论这些借方有无联邦存款保险。So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,as chairs of the Fed, do when they got these warnings that these were massively fraudulent loans and that they were being sold to the secondary market?在接到这些预警信号:这些大面积的欺诈性贷款这些要转售给次级市场的欺骗性贷款作为美联储主席到底做了些什么?Remember, theres no fraud exorcist.请记住,没有神人能将这些欺诈行为消失。Once it starts out a fraudulent loan, it can only be sold to the secondary market through more frauds, lying about the reps and warrantees,and then those people are going to produce mortgage-backed securities and exotic derivatives which are also going to be supposedly backed by those fraudulent loans.欺骗性贷款一旦出现,只能通过更多的欺诈行为,如编造合约声明和保条款把这一借款转售给次级市场。然后借方再推出抵押贷款券和衍生产品,而为这些产品进行担保的正是欺骗性借款。So the fraud is going to progress through the entire system,hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.欺诈行为将贯穿整个系统的始终,使泡沫急剧膨胀,进而造成灾难。And remember, we had experience with this.想想看,这事我们之前经历过。We had seen significant losses,and we had experience of competent regulators in stopping it.我们遭受了巨大的损失,职能监管机构也有阻止危机出现的先例。Greenspan and Bernanke refused to use the authority under the statute to stop liars loans.但是格林斯潘和伯南克拒绝使用法律赋予他们的权力来取缔欺骗性借贷。201502/357500。

  • I thought I would start with a very brief我觉得我得从城市的历史history of cities.简单说起Settlements typically began人们聚井而居with people clustered around a well, and the size揭开了典型的定居生活of that settlement was roughly the distance you could walk而这种定居的范围,也不过是你头顶着一盆水with a pot of water on your head.所能走的距离罢了In fact, if you fly over Germany, for example,其实,假如你能从德国上空飞过and you look down and you see these hundreds往下看,你会看到数以百计的小村庄of little villages, theyre all about a mile apart.每个距离约一英里You needed easy access to the fields.这样你就到地里去就很方便了And for hundreds, even thousands of years,几百几千年以来the home was really the center of life.家就是生活的中心Life was very small for most people.所以对大多数人来说,生活范围其实很小It was the center of entertainment, of energy production,家是欢乐,动力of work, the center of health care.工作,和医疗的中心Thats where babies were born and people died.在那里,也有生老病死Then, with industrialization, everything started之后工业化的兴起,to become centralized.一切开始变得集中起来You had dirty factories that were moved那些污浊不堪的工厂to the outskirts of cities.都搬到了郊外Production was centralized in assembly plants.产品也都被集中到装配厂You had centralized energy production.我们还把能源生产也集中起来Learning took place in schools. Health care took place学校是学习用的in hospitals.医院是治病用的And then you had networks that developed.然后网络也发展起来了You had water, sewer networks that allowed for this供水管网,污水管网也使得kind of unchecked expansion.不断的扩张成为了可能You had separated functions, increasingly.慢慢地,我们把不同的职能给区分开来You had rail networks that connected residential,铁路网连接到了住宅区industrial, commercial areas. You had auto networks.工业区和商业区,汽车交通网也建立起来了In fact, the model was really, give everybody a car,事实上,这个模式就是,给每人一辆车build roads to everything, and give people a place to park把路给修起来,然后在人们停车的地方when they get there. It was not a very functional model.弄个车库,其实这并不是一个行得通的模式And we still live in that world,但我们依旧生活在这样的环境下and this is what we end up with.所以这就是我们所得到的So you have the sprawl of LA,所以就有了洛杉矶的扩展区the sprawl of Mexico City.墨西哥城的扩展区You have these unbelievable new cities in China在中国匪夷所思般崛起了各种新城市which you might call tower sprawl.也可以称为“雨后春笋”Theyre all building cities on the model that we invented他们都是基于我们在50年代或60年代发明的模式in the 50s and 60s, which is really obsolete, I would argue,在建城市,我觉得这样是跟不上时代的and there are hundreds and hundreds of new cities而此时此刻,不计其数的城市that are being planned all over the world.正在世界各地紧锣密鼓筹备兴建In China alone, 300 million people,单中国来说,3亿人口,some say 400 million people,有的说4亿will move to the city over the next 15 years.将会在接下来的15年里搬迁到城市里That means building the entire, the equivalent这就等同于要美国of the entire built infrastructure of the U.S. in 15 years.在15年内建造起整个国家基础设施Imagine that.想象一下And we should all care about this我们都应该关注一下whether you live in cities or not.不管你是否住在城里Cities will account for 90 percent of the population growth,城市主宰着90%的人口增长80 percent of the global CO2, 75 percent of energy use,全球80%的CO2,75%的能源消费but at the same time its where people want to be,同时,也是人们向往的地方increasingly.这情况与日剧增More than half the people now in the world live in cities,现在世界上一半以上的人口住在城市里and that will just continue to escalate.而且还会不断增加Cities are places of celebration, personal expression.城市是人们庆祝和表现的地方You have the flash mobs of pillow fights that a”城市里有枕头大战的快闪族——Ive been to a couple. Theyre quite fun. 我去过几次,还真有趣。You have”还有——Cities are where most of the wealth is created,城市是大部分财富的来源and particularly in the developing world,尤其是在发展中国家its where women find opportunities. Thats妇女也能拥有各种机遇,所以a lot of the reason why cities are growing very quickly.有很多原因可以解释为何城市发展如此快速Now theres some trends that will impact cities.但某些趋势会影响到城市First of all, work is becoming distributed and mobile.首先,工作遵循分配模式而且不再一成不变The office building is basically obsolete办公大楼基本淘汰了for doing private work.私人的工作The home, once again, because of distributed computation --由于有了分布式通信和分布式计算communication, is becoming a center of life,家,再一次成为了生活的中心so its a center of production and learning and shopping家成为了生产,学习,购物,还有医疗and health care and all of these things that we used还有那些我们认为to think of as taking place outside of the home.都是在家外发生的一切的中心And increasingly, everything that people buy,渐渐地,所有人们买的东西every consumer product, in one way or another,所有的消费品,通过不同的方式can be personalized.都能够实现个性化And thats a very important trend to think about.这是值得关注的一个重要趋势So this is my image of the city of the future.这就是我想象中的未来城市In that its a place for people, you know.图中那里就是人们可以待的地方Maybe not the way people dress, but --人们的衣着可能不会是这样,但You know, the question now is, how can we have all要知道,现在的问题是,我们要如何the good things that we identify with cities对于城市带给我们的产物without all the bad things?做到取其精华去其糟粕呢?This is Bangalore. It took me a couple of hours这儿是班加罗尔,在去年的时候to get a few miles in Bangalore last year.我花了好几小时才在班加罗尔移动了几英里So with cities, you also have congestion and pollution所以在城市里,有拥挤和污染and disease and all these negative things.有疾病还有很多负面的东西How can we have the good stuff without the bad?怎样取其精华去其糟粕呢?So we went back and started looking at the great cities我们暂且回头看看那么比较不错的城市吧that evolved before the cars.在有了汽车之前的状态Paris was a series of these little villages巴黎就是由好些小村庄that came together, and you still see that structure today.合并而成的,这种分布结构你今天还可以看得出来The 20 arrondissements of Paris巴黎的20个区are these little neighborhoods.就像20个小邻居Most of what people need in life can be大多数人们的生活所需within a five- or 10-minute walk.或许就在5到10分钟的步行范围里And if you look at the data, when you have that kind如果你去看那些数据,当你建立了of a structure, you get a very even distribution这种结构后,巴黎的商店of the shops and the physicians and the pharmacies内科医生,药房,还有咖啡厅and the cafes in Paris.都会很平均地分布在城市中And then you look at cities that evolved after之后你再看那些拥有了汽车后的城市the automobile, and its not that kind of a pattern.他们就完全不是这个模式了Theres very little thats within a five minute walk像匹兹堡,大部分地方of most areas of places like Pittsburgh.很少再有几步之遥的生活了Not to pick on Pittsburgh, but most American cities不单是匹兹堡,大部分美国的城市really have evolved this way.都演变成这个样了201504/370536。
  • My third story is about death.我的第三个故事是关于死亡When I was 17, I a e that went something like: ;If you live each day as if it was your last, someday youll most certainly be right.; It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: ;If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?; And whenever the answer has been ;No; for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.在我17岁的时候,我读到了一句箴言,差不多是这样的:“如果你把每一天都当作生命中的最后一天去生活的话,那么终有一天你会发现自己是正确的。”这句话给我留下了深刻的印象,从那时算起的33年以来,我每天早晨都会对着镜子问自己:“如果今天是我生命中的最后一天,我还会做自己今天即将要做的事吗?”当连续多次都是“不”时,我就知道自己需要做些改变了。Remembering that Ill be dead soon is the most important tool Ive ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything ?all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are aly naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.“记住你就快要死了”是我听过的最重要的箴言,它帮我做出了生命中非常重大的决策。因为几乎所有的一切——包括所有的外界期望、所有的骄傲、所有对于难堪或失败的恐惧——都会在面对死亡时化为虚无,留下真正重要的东西。你有时会想自己可能失去一些东西,“记住你就快要死了”是我知道的逃脱这种思维陷阱的最好办法。既然你已经赤身裸体了无牵挂了,你就没有理由不去遵从自己的内心。About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didnt even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctors code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought youd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.大概在一年前, 我被诊断出患有癌症。那天早晨七点半,我接受了一次扫描,结果清楚地显示我的胰腺里长了一个肿瘤。我当时都不知道胰腺是什么东西,医生们告诉我,这几乎可以确定是一种无法治愈的癌症,我的寿命估计还有三到六个月的时间。医生们建议我回家把事情都做个了结,这是医生们的行话,意思是准备后事。这意味着在接下去的几个月里你要把未来十年要对孩子们说的话提前说完,意味着你要确保把每件事都安排妥当好让家人以后的日子尽量好过,也意味着你要对这个世界说再见了。I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and Im fine now.这个诊断一整天都萦绕在我心头,当天晚上,我做了一次活体组织切片检查:他们把一个内窥镜伸进我的喉咙,穿过我的胃一直进到肠子里,用一枚探针伸进胰脏取得了一些组织细胞。我当时被麻醉了,在场的妻子告诉我,医生们把这些细胞放到显微镜下观察之后都惊叫起来,因为他们发现这是一种非常罕见的、通过手术可以治愈的胰腺癌。后来我做了手术,现在已经康复。201307/248083。
  • That thing doesnt exist in the world.世界上不存在这种革命。Whenever you see young people in front of the road trying to fraternize with the police or military,如果你看到年轻人在接上态度友好的和警察或者军队交涉,somebody was thinking about it before.肯定有人实现计划。Now, at the end, nonviolent discipline,最后我要谈一谈不使用暴力的重要性,and this is probably the game-changer.这在一场运动中可能会起到决定性的作用。If you maintain nonviolent discipline, you will exclusively win.如果坚持非暴力斗争,你就会取得胜利。You have 100,000 people in a nonviolent march,如果十万人参加了非暴力游行,and one idiot or agent provocateur is throwing stones,如果其中一个白痴或者奸细扔了石头,guess what takes all the cameras? That one guy.媒体的镜头全都会对准这一个人。One single act of violence can literally destroy your movement.一个暴力行为就可以毁掉整个运动。Now let me move to another place.现在我们看下一个问题。Its selection of strategies and tactics.战略和战术的甄选。There are certain rules in nonviolent struggle you may follow.在非暴力斗争中遵守一些规则是必要的。First, you start small.第一,从小规模的运动开始。Second, you pick the battles you can win.第二,将精力集中在可能赢的活动上。Its only 200 of us in this room.今天出席的观众大约两百人。We wont call for the March of Millions.我们没办法组织百万人大游行。But what if we organize spraying graffiti throughout the night all over Krakow city? The city will know.如果我们趁夜晚在克拉科夫四处涂鸦呢?市民们一定会知道的。So we pick the tactics which accommodates to the event,因此,我们根据形势挑选策略,especially this thing we call the small tactics of dispersion.尤其是运用分散的小规模策略。Theyre very useful in a violent oppression.这种策略在暴力镇压中特别有效。We are actually witnessing the picture of one of the best tactics ever used.这张照片记录的就是有史以来最棒的策略之一。It was on Tahrir Square, where the international community was constantly frightened that the Islamists will overtake the revolution.这是在解放广场,国际社会一直担心伊斯兰教徒会在这里改变革命的性质。Well, theyve organized Christians protecting Muslims, who are there praying,于是,他们安排了基督教徒保护正在祈祷的穆斯林,Coptic wedding cheered by thousands of Muslims.以及受到成千上万穆斯林祝福的科普特人婚礼。The world has just changed the picture,他们改变了世界的想法,but somebody was thinking about this previously.这一切都是事前计划。So there are so many things you can do instead of getting into one place, shouting and showing off in front of the security forces.除了聚集在一起,在安保人员面前大叫示威之外,还有很多其他的斗争方式。Now there is also another very important dynamic,事实上还有一种动态制衡也非常重要,and this is a dynamic normally analytics dont see.而且常被分析家忽略。201601/420528。
  • There is no secret society out there 外面没有秘密帮会that will tap you on the shoulder one night and show you the way 能够某天晚上轻拍你的肩膀 给你指明方向because the true secret is 因为真正的秘密在于your life will not be defined by the society that we have left you 你的生命并不是由我们留给你们的社会所定义to paraphrase Robert Bolt 转述罗伯特·鲍特的一句话society has no more idea of what you are than you do 社会对你一无所知 它只能看到你做了什么because ultimately因为最终it has only your brains to think with 社会将只能通过你们的大脑来思考Every generation must define itself每一代人必须定义自身and so make the world that suits itself 从而让世界适宜于自身So 因此if you must find your own path如果你必须找到自己的道路and we have left you no easy path 而且我们没有留下任何容易的道路then decide now to choose the hard path 那么你们现在就必须选择难的道路that leads to the life and the world that you want 从而获得你们想要的生活和世界and dont worry 不要担心if we dont approve of your choices 我们不赞同你们的选择In our benign self absorption 在我们良性的自我陶醉中I believe we have given you a gift我相信我们给了你们一个礼物a particular form of independence 一种特殊形态的独立性because you do not owe the previous generation anything 因为你们不欠上一代人任何东西Thanks to us 幸亏有我们you owe it to the Chinese 你们只欠中国人的So have the courage 你们要有勇气to follow the example of your founder Thomas Jefferson 以你们学校的创建者托马斯·杰斐逊为榜样the greatest mind of that most daring generation 以这位最大胆一代中的伟人为榜样to create something new for yourselves为你们自己创造全新的世界201603/430031。
  • For myself, with all the willpower I can muster就我自己而言 我集中全部的意志力I try to bring the sense of urgency in Dr. Kings words to my work today试图将金士所说的紧迫感带入我今天的工作I do this with an understanding that I still have no idea of what the future may bring我这样做是因为我了解我仍不知道未来可能会带来什么After all, I had no idea that I would not only get my medical degree毕竟 我没有想到我不仅获得了医学学位but also a PhD in anthropology而且还获得了人类学士学位at an institution that is known as a ;small technical school; just我获得士学位的地方就在东北大学历史传奇校园外just up Huntington Ave from the historic legendary campus of Northeastern University亨廷顿大街往上的那所;小技术学校;(哈佛)I had no idea that I would help found an organization, Partners in Health我没有想到 我会和我的同事保罗?法默一起帮助创建了with my colleague Paul Farmer一个机构;健康伙伴;and eventually work in 10 countries并最终在全世界10个国家开展了工作I had no idea that my experience at Partners In Health我没有想到我在;健康伙伴;的工作经历would lead me to take charge of the World Health Organizations HIV/AIDS initiative会为我带来主管世界卫生组织艾滋病计划的工作where we try to get 3 million people treatment by the year 2005并开展了一场到2005年治疗3百万名艾滋病患者的运动And with only minimal academic administrative experience我只有很少的学术管理经验I was given the enormous honor of becoming President of Dartmouth College却得到巨大荣誉 被委以达特茅斯学院院长一职Finally, completely out of the blue最后 就如晴天霹雳一般President Obama last year asked me to stand as a candidate to lead the World Bank Group去年奥巴马总统邀请我作为领导世界集团的候选人之一Always with some trepidation虽然总是有些诚惶诚恐I embraced these unexpected opportunities但我接受了这些意外的机会and now I find myself in one of the most interesting jobs in the world现在我发现自己做的是世界上最有意思的工作之一201502/361166。
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