明星资讯腾讯娱乐2017年10月24日 10:03:36
Nothing captures how fashionable the startup has become quite like crowdfunding. The craze for raising contributions via websites like Kickstarter and Indiegogo is helping to launch companies from scooter manufacturers to lightbulb vendors to filmmakers.没有什么比众筹更能说明创业的火爆了。很多人疯狂地通过Kickstarter和Indiegogo等网站资助别人搞创业,接受资助的企业有中既有做脚踏车的,也有做电灯泡的,甚至还有拍电影的。Now, even nuclear fusion is game.现在,就连研究核聚变的都上了这条船。Yes, the Holy Grail of cheap, clean, safe, plentiful, low-carbon energy that has remained 40 years in the future since scientists proposed it over half a century ago has entered the crowdsourcing era. International government projects like ITER in France and the National Ignition Facility in California may have spent billions of dollars in pursuit of the technology, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be a little grassroots action, too.核能由于具有廉价、清洁、安全、低碳、用之不竭的特点而被喻为能源中的“圣杯”。自从半个多世纪前,科学家们提出利用核能的设想以来,有40多年的时间里,核能在我们眼中似乎都是未来才能享受到的福利。如今这种“高大上”的能源也终于进入了众包时代。虽然有些核能项目动辄要花费几十亿美元,比如法国的国际热核实验反应堆(ITER)和美国加州的美国国家点火装置(National Ignition Facility),但是这并不意味着在核能领域就完全没有草根阶层可以施展拳脚的空间。LPP Fusion, a tiny company based in Middlesex, N.J., launched in May an Indiegogo campaign to raise 0,000—loose change in this business—that it believes will help it reach a major fusion development milestone in a year and commercialize fusion reactors by 2020.美国新泽西州米德尔塞克斯市的一家叫LPP Fusion的小公司今年五月在Indiegogo上发起了一项募集20万美金的活动。虽然20万美金在这个行业里微乎其微,但这家公司相信,这笔钱能帮助它在一年之内完成核聚变领域的一项具有里程碑意义的研究。这样,到2020年,它的研究成果就可以转化为核聚变反应堆。LPP (it stands for “Lawrenceville Plasma Physics“) is representative of a new class of companies emerging to address the world’s energy crisis: Nuclear startups. Dozens of small new reactor companies are either chasing the elusive fusion dream or pursuing fission designs that trump those on the market today. All are promising to deliver a knock-out blow to the carbon-intensive fossil fuels that bedevil the world with environmental impact and volatile geopolitics and economics. Many of these innovative firms are positioning their reactors not just for electricity, but also to provide clean heat for high temperature industrial processes and for water desalination.LPP公司(全名意为“劳伦斯维尔等离子物理公司”)代表了一群致力于解决全球能源问题的创业公司——即核能创业公司。现在有好几十家规模较小的新型反应堆公司要么在继续研究晦涩的聚变问题,要么在绞尽脑汁地设计优于市场现有方案的裂变反应堆。所有这些公司最终都想来一个“一鸣惊人”,彻底取代给人类造成了深重的环境影响和地缘政治冲突的化石能源。很多创业公司的新型反应堆不仅致力于提供电力,还致力于为各种高温工业流程提供清洁的热能,以及用于海水淡化等造福人类的事业。While LPP might be the only crowdfunded member of the group, it is determined like its young peers to shake up the staid nuclear industry. Reactor designs have not fundamentally changed since utilities first connected fission machines to the grid in the 1950s, marking a conservatism that has mired nuclear in the era of black-and-white television while colorful possibilities abound. The startups aim to brighten the palette.尽管LPP可能是核能创业公司中唯一一个靠众筹来拉资金的公司,但它也像它的小兄弟们一样,立志要把死气沉沉的核能行业搅得风生水起。自从上世纪50年代,科学家们第一次把裂变反应堆接入到输电网络时起,直到现在,核反应堆的设计都没有任何根本性的改良。这种保守主义做法就像在黑白电视时代的末期,尽管持色显像的技术已经四处开花,但厂商仍然抱着黑白电视拒绝进步一样。今天的这些核能创业公司就是要让核能板块“亮”起来。For LPP, that would mean not only delivering fusion—melding atoms together rather than fission’s waste-creating process of splitting them apart—but it would also eliminate the time-honored need for costly turbines and generators. Nuclear power, including most fusion concepts, functions mechanically the same way fossil fuel plants do by creating heat to produce steam to drive a turbine. LPP is working on a type of fusion called “aneutronic” that emits charged particles for electricity.对于LPP公司来说,这意味着它不仅仅要研究出可控核聚变方案(而不是产生有害废物的核裂变反应),还要取消这个过程中历来对于汽轮机和发电机的需求——核能(包括大多数核聚变方案)的基本原理与化石燃料发电厂的原理是一致的,都是先产生热能,然后产生蒸汽,然后驱动汽轮机发电。而LPP公司研究的一种核聚变形式又叫做“无中子核聚变”,可以释放带电粒子来发电。“The nuclear industry is stuck using the same method for making electricity that utilities have used since the days of Thomas Edison—generate heat to make steam to drive a turbine and generator,” says Eric Lerner, president of LPP Fusion. “We can change all that. We can convert energy directly into electricity and slash costs.”LPP Fusion公司总裁埃里克o勒那说:“核能行业的发电方法还停留在爱迪生那个时代——通过发热产生蒸汽来驱动汽轮机和发电机。而我们可以改变这一点,我们可以把能源直接转变为电能,同时大量削减成本。”First, he’ll need the 0,000 he seeks on Indiegogo (he has until July 5 to raise it), which would buy him some fancy new beryllium electrodes that would withstand rigors far better than the copper variety that LPP has been using. He hopes to install them by the end of this year in his experimental fusion reactor, which Lerner operates at the Friendly Storage premises in Middlesex, a place otherwise full of surplus boxes and furniture.首先,勒那需要在Indiegogo上募集到20万美元,用来购买比LPP正在使用的铜电极更能经受极端情况考验的铍电极。勒那希望在年底前将铍电极安装在LPP那台试验性的聚变反应堆上,这个反应堆设置在米德尔塞克斯市的一处库房里,那个地方原本堆满了箱子和家具。Lerner is boldly confident that the beryllium would by the middle of next year enable his lab to overcome the problem that has vexed fusion projects forever: It would harness more energy out of its reactor than what goes into it. Additional financing might then rush in. LPP will need million in total, virtually nothing next to the nearly billion that ITER has budgeted for only the next 10 years of an expected 30 years of construction and development of a 20-story “tokamak” facility.勒那相信,在铍电极的帮助下,到明年中旬,他的实验室将克一个长久以来一直困扰着核聚变研究的难题,让我们从核聚变反应堆中获得的能源超过我们投入的用于点燃反应堆的能源。如果试验成功的话,届时可能会有大量资金涌入。LPP的研究总共要花费5000万美金,听起来倒是不少,但相比之下ITER的核聚变项目预计需要30年的建设时间,光是头10年的预算就高达180亿美元,还要建筑一个20层楼“托卡马克”装置。这样看来,LPP的5000万美金简直太便宜了。With the financing, Lerner believes that by 2020 he could license the mass-production of small 0,000-to-0,000 fusion machines—each the size of a one-car garage—with a capacity of 5 megawatts, enough to power 3,000 houses.勒那相信,凭借这笔资金,到2020年的时候,他的公司将能够量产单价在30万到50万美元之间的小型核聚变发电机。每台这种发电机的尺寸只有一个停车位那么大,发电量达到500万瓦特,足够持3000个家庭的用电量。If only he had the wherewithal of rival fusion startup Tri-Alpha Energy, which has rounded up over 0 million from Goldman Sachs, Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, and Russian state-owned company Rusnano, among others. Like LPP, Irvine, Calif.-based Tri-Alpha hopes to develop an aneutronic machine that delivers electricity without using turbines.可惜LPP的后盾远远不及竞争对手Tri-Alpha能源公司。这家公司已经从高盛(Goldman Sachs)、微软(Microsoft)共同创始人保罗o艾伦、俄罗斯国有企业Rusnano等投资人处融到了1.4亿美元资金。像LPP一样,这家位于加州尔湾市的核能创业公司也希望开发出一台无中子核聚变发电机,从而不需要借助汽轮机也能发电。ITER and NIF, the government groups, are taking a more “conventional” fusion approach, aspiring to drive turbines with heat released by fusing isotopes of hydrogen. (In contrast, an aneutronic process tends to fuse standard hydrogen and boron.) So, too, are a number of startups that believe they can crack fusion long before the big science projects do by developing smaller machines (NIF’s facility is 3 football fields long and 10 stories tall) and deploying different technologies.ITER和NIF这两大政府机构则采取了更加“传统”的核聚变方案,也就是通过融合氢的同位素氘和氚和释放热量,从而驱动汽轮机发电。(相比之下,无中子核聚变倾向于将标准的氢与硼进行融合)。此外还有一大批创业公司相信,他们可以比这些举倾国之力的大科学项目提前研究出可控核聚变技术,并且开发出小型的核聚变发电机(NIF的核聚变设施有3个足球场那么大,10层楼高)。“We liken it to the Human Genome Project or SpaceX, where large government programs were ultimately outrun by more nimble and more practical innovation in the private sector,” notes Nathan Gilliland, CEO of General Fusion near Vancouver, Canada. General Fusion has raised million from sources including the Canadian oil company Cenovus and Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s chief executive.总部位于加拿大温哥华附近的通用聚变(General Fusion)公司的CEO南森o吉利兰德指出:“我们可以把它与人类基因组计划或太空探索技术公司(Space X)做一下比较,因为在后两者的领域中,大型政府性项目最终也是被私人领域的更灵活、更实用的创新超越了。”通用聚变公司从加拿大石油公司Cenovus和亚马逊(Amazon)CEO杰夫o贝佐斯等投资人那里融得3200万美元资金。As intriguing as fusion is, there is probably more startup activity in fission, where novel approaches promise great improvements over the industry’s addiction to fissioning solid uranium fuel rods then cooling and moderating them with water.虽然核聚变的前景非常诱人,但更多的创业公司可能活跃在核裂变领域,他们研究的一些新方法比行业现有的对铀燃料棒进行裂变然后用水冷却、稳定的方法要先进得多。A host of startups are experimenting with different approaches including the use of liquid fuel, the use of solid fuel with different shapes (such as bricks or pebbles), and the use of alternative coolants and moderators such as salts and gases. Many of the designs draw on ideas that politics suppressed decades ago. Some, like Bill Gates-chaired TerraPower in Bellevue, Wash., are designing “fast reactors” that don’t moderate neutrons. Some envision using the element thorium instead of uranium.很多公司正在围绕新型的核裂变方法展开试验,比如使用液态燃料,或是使用不同形状的固态燃料(如砖型或卵型),以及使用盐或气体作为冷却剂与缓和剂等等。许多设计都吸收了几十年前不被政府允许的理念。比如由比尔o盖茨任董事长的泰拉能源公司(TerraPower)正在设计一种不需要对中子进行缓和的“快速反应堆”。有些公司则设想利用钍元素来代替铀作为裂变燃料。Between them, they portend leaps in safety, cut way down on nuclear waste, use “waste” as fuel, minimize weapons proliferation risks, slash costs and tremendously boost efficiencies. Many fit the “small modular” form that enables mass production and affordable incremental power. (Oregon startup NuScale Power recently secured 7 million in federal funds to develop a small but comparatively conventional reactor.)很多创业公司的方案在提高核裂变安全性、大大减少核废料、变“废物”为燃料、最大程度降低武器化风险、降低成本和提高效率方面都具有广阔的前景。许多方案都具有“小型模块化”的特征,能够满足量产和经济性发电的需要。(俄勒冈州的创业公司NuScale能源公司最近获得了2.17亿美元的联邦基金,用于研发一种小型的、但相对传统的核反应堆。)“There is a growing market pull for innovation in the nuclear space, so you’re beginning to see a blossoming of startup companies doing different things in nuclear,” says Simon Irish, CEO of startup Terrestrial Energy, Mississauga, Canada, which is developing a “molten salt” reactor (MSR) based on liquid fuel.加拿大米西索加市创业公司Terrestrial Energy的CEO西蒙o艾里什指出:“市场对核能领域创新的拉动力越来越强。所以我们开始看到,很多在核能领域从事不同研究的创业公司如雨后春笋般涌现出来。”艾里什的公司正在研发一种基于液态燃料的“熔盐”反应堆(MSA)。In the U.S., Russ Wilcox, CEO of Cambridge, Mass.-based MSR developer Transatomic Power, implores the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission to broaden its focus beyond conventional reactor safety, which he says “freezes progress.”在美国,总部位于马萨诸塞州剑桥市的MSR开发公司Transatomic Power首席执行官拉斯o威尔克斯正在请求美国核管理委员会(the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)放宽对传统核反应域安全的限制,称这种限制“冻结了进步”。Many observers believe that countries other than the U.S., such as Canada and China, will deploy first. Beijing is funding innovative Chinese fission projects, with collaboration from the U.S. DOE. Meanwhile, Western companies seek funds. Like Cenovus at General Fusion, more oil companies might pony up, because they want clean heat to process petroleum. As Fortune reported last month, a lack of industry funding appears to have slowed progress in DOE’s mission to develop an advanced reactor.许多观察人士认为,除了美国之外,加拿大和中国等国有望成为第一批部署新型核能技术的国家。中国政府正在美国能源部的协助下大力投资新型核裂变项目。同时像Cenovus公司在通用聚变公司所扮演的角色一样,更多石油公司可能会投资核能项目,因为他们也需要清洁的热能来进行石油加工。正如《财富》杂志上月报道的那样,由于缺乏行业投资的缘故,美国能源部开发一个先进的核反应堆的计划似乎已经放缓。LPP Fusion doesn’t seem to be worried. For the young company, the next financing stage could simply be a matter of warming up the crowd.LPP的核聚变研究则似乎不用担心钱的事。这家年轻公司的下一轮融资可能很容易就点燃大众的热情。 /201407/312875

With a bill of materials that’s lower than expected, price tiers that strongly encourage up-selling and a larger screen that actually costs Apple less to manufacturer than last year’s model, the new line of iPhones should sweeten the iPhone average selling price and generate an extra couple billion dollars in revenue.新版iPhone的材料费低于预期,其价位有利于推动向上销售,而且相比去年的版本,更大尺寸屏幕的确能让苹果公司(Apple)降低生产成本。因此,新版iPhone会提高iPhone的平均售价,并会因此额外产生数十亿美元的收入。That’s the thrust of a note to clients issued Tuesday by Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty. It was accompanied by a two useful charts.这是根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师凯蒂o赫伯蒂周二给客户发布的一份研究报告的核心内容。这份报告附有两份颇有价值的图表。The first is a pie chart generated from that proprietary survey of Chinese buyers. It shows a preference for the 5.5-inch model that’s nearly double that of U.S. buyers (26%).首先是一个饼形图,该图数据来自对中国购买者的专项调查。图中显示,中国购买者更加偏爱5.5寸的iPhone 6 Plus,从人数上看,是美国购买者的近两倍(26%)。The second, copied below, is Morgan Stanley’s breakdown of the current iPhone lineup, from unlocked price, through bill of materials, to profit margins. It shows gross margins reaching 48.8% on the 128GB iPhone 6 Plus. The mark-up for NAND memory is particularly rich.是根士丹利对当前iPhone版本的详细分解,涵盖从无锁版价格到材料清单再到利润空间等内容。图中显示,128GB iPhone 6 Plus的毛利率高达48.8%。NAND闪存的涨价幅度尤其大。“Compared to the 16GB iPhone 6,,” writes Huberty, “we estimate 61% incremental margin for the 64 GB version and 55% for the 128 GB version.”“与16GBiPhone 6相比,”赫伯蒂写道,“我们估计64GBiPhone 6的增量毛利率为61%,而128GBiPhone 6的增量毛利率为55%。” /201409/332271

  It takes more than money to rid the world of a scourge such as polio - though having buckets of cash certainly helps. Also needed are ambitious thinking, organisational know#173;how and the ability to bring new ideas to bear on old #173;problems. These are also the kind of things that go into creating a successful technology company. This time around, though, Bill Gates the CEO has had to take a back seat to a less familiar persona: Bill Gates the diplomat.要让世界根除小儿麻痹症这样的灾祸,光有金钱是不够的,虽然雄厚的资金必然是有益的。我们还需要深远的思考、组织技巧、以及用新理念来对付老问题的能力。这些也恰恰是用来创建一家成功高科技企业的要素。但这一次,首席执行官比尔#8226;盖茨不得不让位于一个世人不太熟悉的人物:外交家的比尔#8226;盖茨。When the Gates Foundation made polio eradication a priority five years ago, the global anti-polio effort was running into the sand. More than 10 years of progress had given way, at around the turn of the millennium, to a stalemate as vaccination efforts in the countries still harbouring the disease failed to reach the coverage levels needed to push it into extinction. The organisations behind the existing drive - such as Rotary International, the business group that had long led the effort - “had sort of naively assumed it was on track, but it wasn#39;t”, Gates says. “The idea that business as usual was going to get us there - it had to be broken out of that, because it wasn#39;t going to #173;succeed. It #173;probably would have been better to just give up than do business as usual. But that would have been horrific.”当盖茨基金会在5年前决定优先努力根除小儿麻痹症时,全球范围抗击这种疾病的努力正举步维艰。在世纪之交前后,当时已经进展10多年的项目在现实面前非常无力,那些仍存在小儿麻痹症病例的国家里,疫苗接种的覆盖尚未达到能根除疾病的水平。这些致力于该运动的组织,比如长期领导这一努力的商业团体“国际扶轮社”(Rotary International)“似乎有点天真地认为一切都在正轨上,但事实却并非如此。”盖茨说,“有人认为一切照常就会达到目标,但这不会成功,我们必须跳出这种想法。干脆放弃也许比一切照常更好,但那将是非常可怕的。”Gates seems to relish nothing more than challenging business as usual, often by applying a dose of more ambitious thinking. It was the same impetus that led him to rethink familiar approaches to philanthropy, throwing his money into the urgent pursuit of solutions to big problems rather than attempting a drip-feed of donations that would amount to little more than a Band-Aid. While the foundations started by the likes of Howard Hughes and pharmaceuticals boss Sir Henry Wellcome are still among the handful of the world#39;s richest decades after their founders#39; deaths, the Gates Foundation has been programmed to dole out all its cash and wind itself up 20 years after their deaths.盖茨似乎最喜欢挑战“一切照常”,他经常为此展开更为深远的思考。同样的动力促使他反思人们熟悉的慈善做法,并最终决定把自己的大量财富花在为重大问题寻找解决方案这一紧迫任务上,而不是进行小打小闹的捐赠、到头来不能彻底解决问题。尽管霍华德#8226;休斯(Howard Hughes)和制药业大佬亨利#8226;惠康爵士(Sir Henry Wellcome)创立的基金会,在其创始人去世几十年后仍位居世界上少数财力极为雄厚的基金会之列。盖茨基金会则计划在盖茨夫妇去世后的20年内捐出所有资金,然后进入清盘程序。The instinct to shake up the complacent and challenge the intellectually lazy doesn#39;t always win Gates friends. Putting his personal money and reputation on the line to eradicate a disease has also risked accusations of vanity - a case of the “ego philanthropy” that can distort goals when the super-rich get involved. Wiping out a disease has only happened once before, when the World Heath Organisation declared in 1980 that #173;smallpox had been eliminated. Helping to finance and organise a second #173;eradication would cap the Gates Foundation#39;s emergence as the most significant private charity in the world of global health. It would also set the stage for the next items on the list of diseases it hopes eventually to wipe out, starting with malaria.撼动自满、挑战思维惰性的本能,并不总能让盖茨赢得朋友。为根除一种疾病而押上自己财富和声誉的做法,还有可能被人指责为“虚荣”——“自我慈善事业”指的就是这种情况。当牵扯到超级富豪时,这种慈善可能会扭曲目标。根除一种疾病的案例以往只发生过一次——世界卫生组织(WHO)在1980年宣布天花已被根除。若能帮助资助和组织根除第二种疾病,盖茨基金会将一跃成为全球健康领域最重要的私人慈善机构。此举还将为该基金会奠定基础,利于将目标转向其希望最终根除的其他疾病,为首的就是疟疾。Gates brushes off questions about the merits of the eradication effort and whether other initiatives might be a better investment in terms of the immediate number of lives saved. “Eradications are special,” he says. “Zero is a magic number. You either do what it takes to get to zero and you#39;re glad you did it; or you get close, give up and it goes back to where it was before, in which case you wasted all that credibility, activity, money that could have been applied to other things.”有人质疑根除疾病努力的价值,认为若按被挽救之生命的直接数量来衡量,其他善举会不会是更好的投资。面对这些质疑,盖茨表示不屑。“‘根除’是一件很特别的事情。”他说,“零是一个神奇的数字。你要么尽一切努力来达到零,然后对自己实现了目标感到欣喜;要么在接近目标后放弃努力,然后发病率反弹至原有水平——在这种情况下,你白白浪费了大量信誉、精力和资金,而这些你原本可以投入到其他事业上。”Since he threw his organisation behind the effort, polio has been eradicated in India. But it remains rooted in Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan, spilling over sporadically into their #173;neighbours. That these three countries remain among the world#39;s most #173;difficult to operate in - in Pakistan, the Taliban has taken to bombing vaccination teams, accusing them of being in cahoots with the CIA - provides a clue about why, nearly 30years after the eradication campaign began, polio persists. Eradication has little to do with making advances in science and technology - though work on new vaccines targeted more directly at the strains of the disease that remain has helped in the fight.有赖盖茨基金会的持,小儿麻痹症在印度已得到根除。但这种疾病在阿富汗、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦仍然流行,偶尔还蔓延到邻国。这三个国家仍是世界上最难开展慈善工作的,在巴基斯坦,塔利班曾对疫苗接种小组实施炸弹袭击,并指责他们与美国中央情报局(CIA)同流合污。这一事实实则说明了为什么在“根除”努力启动近30年后,小儿麻痹症仍然存在。能否根除疾病与科技是否取得进步关系不大,尽管在这一努力中,新疫苗(这些疫苗更直接地瞄准现存疾病类型)的研制工作起到了帮助作用。Take one of the biggest challenges to managing immunisation campaigns against polio and other diseases in the developing world: getting vaccines to where they#39;re required while keeping their temperature in a narrow 2C-8C range to prevent them spoiling. Running the so-called “cold chain” needed for this to happen - from big refrigerators in regional distribution centres to the cases vaccinators carry into the field - requires painstaking logistical organisation. Often, kerosene or other fuels used in refrigeration are in short supply or antiquated equipment fails due to lack of maintenance. According to Gates, problems like these are too low-tech to attract the world#39;s best brains. “Unfortunately, it#39;s a very mundane, practical thing,” he says. “It#39;s not sexy from a scientific point of view.”在发展中国家开展针对小儿麻痹症和其他疾病的免疫活动,最大的挑战之一是把疫苗运送到需要的地方,并在这一过程中确保它们的温度保持在2至8摄氏度的狭窄温度范围内,以防它们变质。要做到这一点,就需要所谓的“冷链”:从区域配送中心的大冰箱,到接种人员手中的接种箱。运营“冷链”需要进行周密的后勤组织。经常发生的情况是,制冷所用的煤油或其他燃料供应短缺,或者设备陈旧,年久失修出现故障。盖茨称,这样的问题技术含量太低,难以吸引世界上最优秀的大脑。“遗憾的是,这是一件很平凡、实际的事,”他说,“从科学的视角看,它不够‘性感’。”A businessman#39;s understanding of incentives helps. The number of fridges needed is not large enough to provide a #173;profitable market for manufacturers so the foundation has had to make financial commitments in advance. The business model of the vaccine makers gives them little reason to lower their manufacturing costs to make their products more affordable, he adds. Their high costs are more than covered by prices they can charge in the developed world and any mistakes they might make as a result of tampering with their carefully regulated #173;production processes would jeopardise that existing business. “That#39;s not science - that#39;s, how the hell do you make 50 cent vaccines?”此时商人盖茨对激励机制的理解是非常有用的。由于所需的冰箱数量不够、不能为制造商提供一个有利可图的市场,盖茨基金会不得不预先作出财务承诺。他补充说,疫苗制造商的商业模式使得它们没理由降低生产成本、让自己的产品在价格上更合适。在发达国家能够开出的价格,足以覆盖它们的高成本。如果它们因改变自己精心调校好的生产工艺而酿成任何差错,那就可能危及现有业务。“这与科学无关——这个问题是,你如何才能制造50美分的疫苗?”Management methods that would be immediately familiar to anyone involved in the fast-moving technology world are also being brought to bear. These include employing the rapid cycle of trial and error that new tech companies engage in before #173;pouring money into a formula that works - a process known as #173;“scaling”, which takes place as they race to capitalise on a new market before rivals emerge.瞬息万变的科技行业的参与者所熟悉的管理方法也被引入。包括采用快速的试误周期——新的科技公司往往会先进行试误,然后再砸下重金将其中一种管用的设计方案投产,这个过程称为“规模化”,目的是让它们抢在竞争对手出现之前独占一个新市场。Apoorva Mallya, a senior program officer who works on #173;country implementation, puts the success in stamping out the disease in India partly down to pouring money into local initiatives that had the potential to be effective across the #173;country, but which were being conducted on too small a scale to make a difference. These included assigning community #173;mobilisers to individual districts and neighbourhoods before vaccination drives began in order to organise meetings of women and overcome distrust or resistance. “We went in and funded them for a massive expansion across India,” he says.在国家层面负责实施的高级项目官员艾普瓦#8226;马尔雅(Apoorva Mallya)认为,他们之所以能够在印度成功根除这种疾病,一定程度上是因为他们将大笔资金投向了地方性的项目;这类项目本已具备在全国有效实施的潜力,但因规模过小影响力不足,包括在疫苗接种活动开始之前向各区和街道指派社区动员者,由其组织妇女开会,克不信任或抵制情绪。他说:“我们介入其中并提供资金,让他们在印度各地大规模推广。”Another method familiar from the tech world involves more effective data collection and analysis. Vaccination drives fail if too many children fall through the net. To get a better understanding of effectiveness, the foundation has paid for teams of researchers to use statistical sampling to see if adequate coverage levels have been reached.从高科技行业借鉴的另一种方法涵盖了更有效的数据收集和分析。如果有太多儿童“漏网”,疫苗接种努力就会失败。为了更好地掌握行动的效果,盖茨基金会资助了一些调研小组,用统计抽样来判断是否已达到足够高的接种率水平。Measurement is also being brought to bear to build a more detailed understanding of how costs are incurred in vaccination drives. Without that data, it#39;s hard to know where to focus attention to make global health programmes more effective, says Orin Levine, who runs the foundation#39;s vaccination efforts. “We don#39;t necessarily differentiate where the costs are in the system yet, so it makes it harder to say an innovation in [a particular area] will be something we really want,” he explains.为了更细致了解疫苗接种项目的各项成本,盖茨基金会还引入了一些测算手段。负责该基金会疫苗接种工作的奥林#8226;莱文(Orin Levine)表示,如果没有这些数据,就很难知道应当在哪里集中注意力,才能使全球健康计划变得更加有效。他解释说:“目前我们并未把整个系统中的各项成本都细列出来,也就是说很难说某一领域的某项创新是我们真正想要的东西。”This kind of rigour would be familiar inside an engineering-centric company such as Microsoft, where rationality reigns. But in the more chaotic world of global aid, with its loose alliance of government agencies, NGOs and charities - many of them operating with only partial information - it does not pay to assume such disciplines. Learning to work in that world is one of the greatest adjustments.在微软这种以工程为中心、理性至上的企业中,人们对这种严谨不会陌生。但在由政府机构、非政府组织和慈善机构组成松散联盟的全球援助领域,局面则更为混乱,很多机构是在仅掌握部分信息的情况下开展工作。在这样的环境中,要贯彻这样的纪律难免吃力不讨好。学会在该领域工作是盖茨作出的最大调整之一。“The fact that people don#39;t understand numbers and systems thinking and science and logic, that#39;s OK,” Gates says - though his famous impatience might belie such a claim. “I only need a half of the people who contribute to really think in a way where I can say, hey, come on, there#39;s a theory of change here, do you get it, do you get if that piece doesn#39;t happen, it completely messes up that piece?”“人们不理解数字和系统思维、不理解科学和逻辑,这没什么,”盖茨说——尽管他那出了名的不耐烦令我不敢全然相信他的这一说法。“我只需要一半参与者真正以合理方式思考,我可以说,嗨,这是变革理论,你要明白,如果不(按照变革的要求)去这么做,就会彻底搞砸。”Like many self-made business people, Gates is wary about the ability of governments to deal with some of society#39;s most pressing problems. Personal experience might have something to do with it. More than a decade ago, his fight with the US Department of Justice over whether Microsoft had acted illegally to defend its PC software monopoly ended in defeat, though a settlement with the George W Bush White House saved the company from the forced break-up that a judge had ordered.与许多白手起家的商人一样,盖茨也担心政府应对某些最紧迫社会问题的能力。他的这种担心可能在一定程度上源自他的亲身经历。10多年前,他与美国司法部(US Department of Justice)围绕微软是否曾采取非法行动维护其PC软件垄断地位展开过较量,并最终成为战败的一方——尽管与小布什(George W Bush)政府达成的和解挽救了微软,幸免不必按照此前法官命令的那样强制分拆。Gates describes himself as a natural optimist. But he admits that the fight with the US government seriously challenged his belief that the best outcome would always prevail. With a #173;typically generalising sweep across history, he declares that governments have “worked pretty well on balance in playing their role to improve the human condition” and that in the US since 1776, “the government#39;s played an absolutely central role and something wonderful has happened”. But that doesn#39;t settle his unease.盖茨称自己是一个天生的乐观主义者。但他承认,与美国政府之间的那场斗争严重挑战了他的信念,他原来一直相信最终胜出的总是最好的结局。他以一种典型的、归纳总结历史的语气宣称,政府“总的来说在改善人类生存条件方面很好地发挥了自己的作用”,在美国,自1776年以来,“政府发挥了绝对核心的作用,推动实现了一些壮举”。但是,这并没有缓解他的不安。“The closer you get to it and see how the sausage is made, the more you go, oh my God! These guys don#39;t even actually know the budget. It makes you think: can complex, technocratically deep things - like running a healthcare system properly in the US in terms of impact and cost - can that get done? It hangs in the balance.”“你越接近第一线、看到腊肠是如何制作出来的,就越有可能说,天哪!这些家伙其实对预算一头雾水。你不由得会想:如果让他们去做些复杂的、在专业管理方面有点深度的事情,比如在美国运行一个有影响又具有成本管理的医疗系统,他们能够办到吗?这有点悬。”It isn#39;t just governments that may be unequal to the task. On this analysis, the democratic process in most countries is also straining to cope with the problems thrown up by the modern world, placing responsibilities on voters that they can hardly be expected to fulfil. “The idea that all these people are going to vote and have an opinion about subjects that are increasingly complex - where what seems, you might think... the easy answer [is] not the real answer. It#39;s a very interesting problem. Do democracies faced with these current problems do these things well?”问题不只是政府可能无法胜任相关任务。按照这种分析,多数国家的民主进程也在艰难应对现代世界带来的种种问题,让选民承担他们显然很难履行的责任。“有人主张,让所有人都去投票、就某些领域中日益复杂的课题形成一个意见——而在这些领域中,你也许会认为,那些貌似……容易的并不是真正的。这是一个很有意思的问题。面对当前这些问题的民主国家,在此类事情上做得到底好不好”Compared with fixing the US healthcare system, the issues of global health and development taken on by Gates#39; foundation are, by his own estimate, relatively straightforward. But the work has required him to develop new skills: a willingness to engage with politicians and to develop reserves of diplomacy and #173;persuasiveness. With more than 1,000 staff members and the ambition to shape the broad strategies directed at solving the problems it takes on, the foundation does much more than simply hand over money. It relies on partnerships with a wide range of government agencies and other bodies to have any effect - and that has forced Gates, the uncompromising and impatient tech leader, to apply the human touch.按照他自己的估计,与修复美国医疗体系相比,盖茨基金会应对的全球健康和发展问题要更加直截了当。但这项工作要求他习得新的技能:培养与政界人士接触的意愿,修炼外交手腕和说力的内功。盖茨基金会所做的远不只是发放资金,该基金会拥有1000多名工作人员,并立志要针对问题塑造整体上的解决战略。要想产生实际影响,它必须与各类政府机构和其他组织建立合作关系,这迫使盖茨这个不妥协和不耐烦的科技行业领袖学会跟人打交道。Workers at the foundation say that he has been closely involved even at a regional and district level in winning the needed political backing. Gates, for instance, says he personally “bonded with” Nitish Kumar, the highly rated chief minister of the Indian state of Bihar, over the latter#39;s strong backing for vaccination efforts.基金会的工作人员称,盖茨一直密切参与争取必要政治持的工作,甚至在区域和地区层面上也是如此。例如,盖茨说,他与印度比哈尔邦(Bihar)备受好评的首席部长尼蒂什#8226;库马尔(Nitish Kumar)结下了很好的私交,以确保后者能够鼎力持疫苗接种。Sometimes in the field of global development, however, it is enough simply to be Bill Gates: the fame and wealth work their own magic. “If... I need to go to the Indian parliament and say, #39;Let#39;s get serious about vaccines,” then yes - since I#39;m giving my own money [on a] large scale and spending my life on it and I#39;m a technocrat - yes, that can be quite valuable.”然而,在全球发展这个领域,有时仅仅做回比尔#8226;盖茨就足够了:他的名气和财富会自动产生魔力。“如果……我需要去印度议会说,‘让我们认真对待疫苗接种工作’,那么没错——由于我拿出自己的大量财富、全身心地投入这项事业,而且我是个技术官僚——这一切可能相当有价值。”If this brand of international development diplomacy has required new skills, however, some things haven#39;t changed. Talk to almost anyone who has worked with Gates and they have a story about his intensity. On trips to the developing world his tirelessness wears out those around him. Inside the foundation, he shows the kind of endurance that once inspired and exhausted Microsoft product managers. “He wants to do the work with us at the most granular level. He will sit in four-hour meetings with us going over slide page after slide page,” says Raja Rao, who heads the foundation#39;s work on perfecting the cold chain. “I#39;ve seen him sit in a room for 11hours non-stop just talking about #173;technology, eating snacks and drinking Diet Coke.”不过,如果说进行此类关注国际发展的外交活动需要习得技能,那么有些东西是一直没有改变的。曾与盖茨共事的人几乎都会谈到他对工作的高度投入。在前往发展中国家的旅途中,他马不停蹄让周围的人筋疲力尽。在盖茨基金会内,他展现出了曾经鼓舞(并且累坏)微软产品经理的那种耐力。“他要和我们一起做那些最琐碎的事。他会参加我们的4小时会议,逐页审阅幻灯片。”在该基金会负责冷链完善工作的拉贾#8226;拉奥(Raja Rao)表示,“我见过他坐在一个房间里,连续11个小时不停地谈论技术、吃零食、喝健怡可乐(Diet Coke)。”Many of the works on the bookshelves in Gates#39; office overlooking Lake Washington are scientific tomes on the diseases that he is combatting - of which, with characteristic diligence, he now has a deep personal understanding, according to others at the foundation. A voracious er - he has always taken #173;periodic breaks from his regular routine to about and ponder the biggest problems he has taken on- his conversation is littered with references to authors. Given the smallest excuse, he plunges into a description of the different types of polio and vaccines - and then into the genetic tests that show how the disease once #173;persisted and sp in areas like Uttar Pradesh even when full outbreaks were rare.在盖茨俯瞰华盛顿湖的办公室里,书架上摆放着很多关于盖茨所抗击疾病的科学著作。据盖茨基金会的人介绍,凭借着标志性的勤奋,如今盖茨对这些疾病有了深刻的个人理解。盖茨是一个览群书的人,他有一个保持了很久的习惯,那就是每隔一段时间暂时告别日常事务,专心阅读和思考自己选择应对的重大问题。他在谈话中也频频引用不同作者的观点。哪怕得到最小的由头,他也会滔滔不绝地介绍不同类型的小儿麻痹症和疫苗,然后又说,基因测试显示,这种疾病如何一度在印度北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)等地持续出现和传播,尽管极少有疫情全面爆发的情况。This is the Gates who once ruled Microsoft with a command of detail and intellectual intensity that led to the kind of culture that was capable of dominating the tech world - even as it tipped over into behaviour that brought a regulatory backlash. “I was a kind of hyper-intense person in my twenties and very #173;impatient,” he says. “I don#39;t think I#39;ve given up either of [those] things entirely. Hopefully it#39;s more measured, in a way.”当年的盖茨正是凭借这样高强度的思维和对细节的掌握来领导微软的,它催生了能够主导高科技行业的那种文化——也催生了最终招致监管反弹的越线行为。“我在20多岁时是那种绷得非常紧的人,非常没有耐心。”他说,“我并不认为自己在这两方面已完全改变。只是希望自己变得更有分寸了。”If the manner has mellowed, though, the uncompromising attitude is still very much in evidence. It is at once one of the strongest assets and one of the biggest hindrances in his plan to save some of the world#39;s poorest from the fate to which a sometimes oblivious world has left them. Knowing how to pursue an unflinching personal logic without alienating people remains a work in progress for him.不过,如果说盖茨的举止已变得更有分寸,那么他的不妥协态度可以说仍十分明显。盖茨的计划旨在拯救世界上一些最贫穷的人群,使他们摆脱这个有时对苦难视而不见的世界带给他们的命运。就该计划而言,盖茨的不妥协态度既是最强大的资产之一,也是最大的障碍之一。明白如何在不得罪人的情况下追求坚定的个人逻辑,对他而言仍是一种需要进一步修炼的内功。“When we had a meeting a couple of years ago, when people weren#39;t thinking through the polio thing very well, I was pretty critical,” he says. His message to the assembled workers: “#39;Hey, this is not good thinking, this is not good, this is not going to get us there.“”盖茨说:“在两三年前的一个会上,当有关人员未能周密考虑根除小儿麻痹症的项目时,我的态度相当不客气。”他向与会工作人员传达的信息是:“这种思路可不行,它不够好,不能让我们达到目标。”The new Gates, though, was not prepared to leave it at that. After the meeting was over, he did what husbands the world over are liable to do at such times: “I said to Melinda, was I too tough on that, who should I send mail to, was that motivational, #173;de-motivational? It#39;s all a matter of degree.”不过,“新”的盖茨并没有打算不去想这件事了。会后,他做了世界各地的有家男人在这种时候都可能会做的事:“我对梅琳达说,我在这事上太严厉了吗?我应该给谁发封邮件?我的话是有激励作用还是让人泄气?这些全都是一个‘度’的问题。” /201312/270459



  It has been a frantic fortnight for gadget lovers and the Apple iPhone 5 launch was the grand finale of the whole shebang. But not without a brush of disappointment. Let#39;s face it, a product has yet to appear that could revolutionize the smartphone landscape as the iPhone did when it launched years ago.过去的两周对数码迷们来说真是段疯狂的时光,苹果iPhone5的发布成为这一切的压轴戏。但结果却是一丝丝失望。面对现实吧!还尚未有任何一种产品可以像数年前iPhone刚刚面世时那样掀起智能手机界的革命。The lack of surprises this season seems to place the industry in a more balanced position in which customers are spoiled by a plethora of handsets options.本季的平淡无奇使得手机业界战火稍稍平息,可供用户来选择的手机种类可谓五花八门,这也使得消费者被宠坏了。Apple plays it safe, again苹果再次稳扎稳打At first glance there#39;s not much difference between the new iPhone 5 and its previous products. But there have been a few tweaks. It#39;s slightly longer, sporting a 4-inch screen with a 16:9 aspect ratio that allows you to watch widescreen s without those annoying black bars on both sides.乍一看,iPhone5同之前的几款苹果手机并无太大差别,但其实还是有一些改进的。iPhone5机身略长,搭配16比9的4英寸屏,这样一来,你便可以告别屏幕两侧那恼人的小黑边,尽享观看宽屏视频的体验了。The latest iPhone is much more slender too. At only 7.6mm thick, Apple claims it is the thinnest in the world. The glass back has been replaced by an all-metal shell with a two-tone effect. The connector is also smaller, which is bad news for those who just spent US,000 (6,300 yuan) on a new dock .最新款的iPhone也更加轻薄。苹果公司宣称,这是世界上最薄的手机,厚度仅有7.6毫米。原先的玻璃背板已经换成了双色调金属外壳。接口也变小了,这对那些刚刚花上1000美元(约合6300人民币)买了新dock音响的人来说是个坏消息。But as this shows, hardware can hardly differentiate rivals anymore. It#39;s up to the software to run the show.而这表明,拼硬件已经很难将自己与竞争对手们区分开来。软件成为制胜的关键。A big feature discussed alongside the iPhone 5 at its launch was the iOS 6 – the latest version of Apple#39;s mobile operating system. It offers a selection of new features, most notably a replacement of Google#39;s mapping software. Apple#39;s own take on maps provides turn-by-turn navigation and local business information. An enhanced version of Siri the robot is also featured.与iPhone5一起备受热议的一大卖点是最新的苹果手机操作系统iOS6。该系统提供了一系列新功能,其中最显著的变化便是放弃Google地图。苹果自主研发的地图为用户提供在车辆需要拐弯时进行语音提醒的导航务,还能显示周边商业信息。升级版的Siri机器人也颇受关注。Finnish paradox诺基亚的自相矛盾Nokia was a major casualty of the iPhone revolution. The mobile phone giant, allying with Microsoft, is trying hard to compete with its new generation of flagship smartphones – the “Lumia” series.诺基亚是iPhone革命中的主要受害者。这个手机巨头与微软合作,正极力想通过自己的新一代旗舰版智能手机——Lumia系列扳回一局。In terms of hardware, Nokia#39;s Lumia 920 seems to match the iPhone on every aspect.在硬件上,诺基亚的Lumia920似乎在各个方面上都与iPhone旗鼓相当。Its 4.5 inch screen is 0.5 inch bigger than Apple#39;s counterpart, and a 8.7 megapixel rear camera beats the iPhone5 by 0.7. Both handsets have adopted dual-core predecessors, but Nokia wins the upper hand on battery life. Wireless charging technology is seen as a highlight.其4.5英寸的屏幕超出对手iPhone5半英寸,后置摄像头(870万像素)超过iPhone5达70万像素之多。这两款手机都配有双核处理器,不过,诺基亚在电池寿命上更胜一筹。无线充电技术也成为一大亮点。Despite seemingly outperforming its rival, Nokia#39;s share price plummeted 16 percent following the release of its new gadget, according to AP. Investors said that the Finnish manufacturer still lacks a “wow” factor.据美联社报道称,虽然诺基亚看似比对手更胜一筹,但是当这款新型手机上市后,诺基亚的股价大跌16%。投资人士认为,这个来自芬兰的手机制造商仍缺乏让人眼前一亮的产品。The Lumia#39;s software might be to blame. Supporting only around 100,000 apps, compared with more than 500,000 for Android and iPhones, Windows phones have so far not been well received in the market, and the negligible edge it has on hardware could not wield its full power to impress customers and outshine the competition.而这可能要归咎于Lumia的软件。安卓和苹果系统都拥有超过50万个的应用程序,但相比之下Windows手机只搭载了约10万个应用程序,这点使得Windows手机的市场销路堪忧;同时,硬件上的微弱优势不能拼尽全力来打动消费者,以至于无法在手机大战中脱颖而出。Moreover, adverts allegedly demonstrating the phone#39;s stunning camera were later found to be based on photos shot on professional equipment. This almost ensured that Nokia#39;s return to the smartphone arena is yet to come.除此以外,据称,Lumia920广告中展示出了强大拍照功能,但后来被人发现这些照片都是使用专业设备拍摄的。这点基本上能说明,诺基亚回归智能手机竞技场的日子还没有到来。Galaxy on the rise三星Galaxy的崛起Samsung#39;s vice is exterior design. Sticking to the Galaxy series#39; plastic shell, it doesn#39;t quite have the luxurious, reliable feel of the iPhone or Lumia. At 4.8 inches, the Galaxy S III#39;s screen is chunky, almost crossing the boundary into tablets. Whereas a big screen is useful for watching movies and playing 3D games, it is less convenient to hold and carry around.三星手机的外观设计是硬伤。执着于Galaxy系列的塑料外壳,三星手机完全没有像iPhone或Lumia手机那样的奢华感和信赖感。Galaxy S III手机的4.8英寸屏幕十分厚实,几乎相当于一台平板电脑了。虽然超大屏利于看电影和玩3D游戏,但手握感欠佳且不便于携带。Following its dual-core predecessor, Galaxy S III#39;s quad-core version makes it the most powerful smartphone yet. The problem is that most apps don#39;t yet take advantage of four-core chips, meaning that for the most part that powerful processor is just sucking away at battery life.在推出双核处理器之后,Galaxy S III这次搭载的四核处理器使它成为目前最强大的智能手机。问题在于,大多数应用程序还不适用于四核芯片,这就意味着大多数情况下,这个强大的处理器仅仅在那里消耗电量,别无它用。As an Android raider, Galaxy S III#39;s new 4.0 Ice Cream Sandwich system lets you drag live widgets to your home screens, showing you live information without having to boot up an app. That#39;s a feature Android owners regularly flaunt in front of iPhone fans, whose home screens don#39;t offer this level of customization.作为一款安卓机,Galaxy S III搭载的全新冰淇淋三明治4.0操作系统让你可以直接将应用程序拖进主屏,无需启动应用程序也可查看实时信息。这也成为安卓用户可以常常在苹果迷面前炫耀的一点,而苹果手机屏幕没有提供这种定制化的务。 /201209/201537Japanese researchers on Friday unveiled a population clock that showed the nation#39;s people could theoretically become extinct in 1,000 years because of declining birth rates.日本研究人员上周五发布了一个人口倒计时钟,该时钟显示,由于出生率持续下降,理论上日本人将于1000年后灭绝。Academics in the northern city of Sendai said that Japan#39;s population of children aged up to 14, which now stands at 16.6 million, is shrinking at the rate of one every 100 seconds.日本北部城市仙台的学者称,日本14岁以下儿童人口目前为1660万,正在以每100秒1个的速度减少。Their extrapolations pointed to a Japan with no children left within a millennium.学者们的推断指出,日本在1000年后将没有儿童。;If the rate of decline continues, we will be able to celebrate the Children#39;s Day public holiday on May 5, 3011 as there will be one child,; said Hiroshi Yoshida, an economics professor at Tohoku University.日本东北大学的经济学教授吉田浩说:“按这种下降速度,到3011年5月5日我们将剩下一名儿童,仍能庆祝儿童节。”;But 100 seconds later there will be no children left,; he said. ;The overall trend is towards extinction, which started in 1975 when Japan#39;s fertility rate fell below two.;他说:“但再过100秒,日本将没有儿童。自从1975年日本生育率降到每名育龄妇女两个孩子以内,走向灭绝便成了总体趋势。”Yoshida said he created the population clock to encourage ;urgent; discussion of the issue.吉田说他创立这一人口钟是为了鼓励人们“紧急”开展关于这一问题的讨论。Another study released earlier this year showed Japan#39;s population is expected to shrink to a third of its current 127.7 million over the next century.今年早些时候发布的另一项研究显示,下世纪日本人口将缩减到现有人口(1.277亿)的三分之一。Government projections show the birth rate will hit just 1.35 children per woman within 50 years, well below the replacement rate.政府预测显示,50年内日本生育率将降至每名妇女1.35个小孩,大大低于人口替换率。Meanwhile, life expectancy -- aly one of the highest in the world -- is expected to rise from 86.39 years in 2010 to 90.93 years in 2060 for women and from 79.64 years to 84.19 years for men.与此同时,日本已然是世界第一的人口寿命将进一步延长。日本女性的平均寿命将从2010年的86.39岁增加到2060年的90.93岁,而日本男性的寿命将从2010年的79.64岁增加到2060年的84.19岁。More than 20 percent of Japan#39;s people are aged 65 or over, one of the highest proportions of elderly in the world.超过20%的日本人年龄在65岁以上(含65岁),是世界上老年人口比例最大的国家之一。Japan has very little immigration and any suggestion of opening the borders to young workers who could help plug the population gap provokes strong reactions among the public.日本的外来移民很少,向外国年轻工人开放边境能帮助填补人口差距,但这种提议总是会激起民众的强烈反应。The greying population is a headache for policymakers who are faced with trying to ensure an ever-dwindling pool of workers can pay for a growing number of pensioners.老龄化人口是让决策者头疼的事情,他们面临着如何用不断减少的劳动人口付的养老金来养活越来越多的退休老人的问题。But for some Japanese companies the inverting of the traditional ageing pyramid provides commercial opportunities.然而,对一些日本公司而言,传统老龄化金字塔结构的这一倒转提供了商机。Unicharm said Friday that sales of its adult diapers had ;slightly surpassed; those for babies in the financial year to March, for the first time since the company moved into the seniors market.日本尤妮佳公司上周五称,在截止到三月的上一个财政年度中,成人尿布的销量“略微超过了”婴儿尿布的销量,这在该公司进军老年人市场后是首次。 /201205/182797

  Many years ago it became obvious to some of us that online retail would continue to grow at a much faster pace than brick and mortar stores. This appeared to be less obvious to traditional retailers until more recently. In 2001, I suggested to some colleagues that Wal-Mart WMT 0.29% should acquire Amazon to gain an edge in online retail (Amazon stock was about a share at the time). This idea was scoffed at. I bought Amazon AMZN 0.07% stock but, clearly, didn’t maximize my execution as I sold it within 18 months for 3 times the return (it’s now 7). I’m guessing there were also some prescient investment bankers who received a similar response after suggesting that Wal-Mart buy Amazon. Who knows what the world would be like today had that occurred, as Amazon could easily have been derailed under Wal-Mart management.多年前,一些有识之士就确信,电商的增长速度将比实体店快得多。在传统零售商看来,这一点并没有那么显而易见——直至最近。2001年,我曾对一些同事表示,沃尔玛公司(Wal-Mart)应该收购亚马逊公司(Amazon),以获得在线零售的优势(当时亚马逊的股价约为5美元)。但这个提法却遭到了嘲笑。我当时买了亚马逊的股票,但很显然并没有赚到最大回报,因为不到18个月我就以3倍价格卖掉了(现在股价是317美元)。我想,当时有些富有预见的投资家在提出沃尔玛应该收购亚马逊这样的建议后,也受到了类似嘲讽。如果当时这个建议成真,就不知道今天的世界会是什么模样,因为沃尔玛治下的亚马逊是很容易脱轨的。Now, traditional retailers are under extraordinary pressure as online has matured and is expected to exceed 0 billion in U.S. sales in 2014. As online retail has claimed a larger and larger share of the overall retail business, it has sucked the air out of brick and mortar stores, and offline growth has come to a virtual standstill. With this emergence, many traditional players have finally seen the light. Wal-Mart has announced it will be increasing its online investments by a substantial amount in an effort to try to close the gap against Amazon. There has been much press about the acceleration in Wal-Mart’s online sales, and as a result, there are some who will mistakenly look at the relative growth numbers of Amazon vs. Wal-Mart’s online store and start to believe Wal-Mart is closing the gap. This could not be further from the truth as it is deceptive to compare larger numbers to smaller ones.而如今,羽翼丰满的电商正在让传统零售商承受巨大压力。2014年,美国的在线零售额有望超过3000亿美元。随着电商在零售业所占的份额越来越大,它已抢走了实体店的人气,线下增长实际上已停滞不前。在这种情势下,很多传统零售商终于有点开窍了。沃尔玛日前宣布该公司将大幅增加在线投资,以努力缩小与亚马逊的差距。有不少媒体报道称,沃尔玛的在线销售额正在快速增长。结果,有些人就会误读亚马逊与沃尔玛网店的相对增速,并开始相信沃尔玛正在缩小差距。但这实际上与事实相去甚远,因为单纯将大数字与较小数字相比是有一定欺骗性的。One reason to believe that Wal-Mart is catching up is because in the current fiscal year, the retailer is expected to grow online sales by 30% while is Amazon “only” expected to post a 20% gain, according to consensus Wall Street estimates. There are four problems with focusing on this number:相信沃尔玛正迎头赶上的一大理由是,据华尔街的一致估算,沃尔玛本财年网店销售额预计增长30%,而亚马逊则“仅”增长20%。光看这一数字存在如下四大问题:1. A portion of Wal-Mart’s growth is deceptive because it partly consists of shifting sales away from its physical stores to its online store.1.沃尔玛的增长额中有一部分颇具欺骗性,因为它部分是由其实体店转移到网店的销售额构成的。2. Wal-Mart’s growth comes off of a much smaller number. In the chart below we look at the actual dollar growth of Amazon and Wal-Mart last year. While Wal-Mart is expected to increase online sales by a very respectable billion, Amazon’s gain of .5 billion is nearly 5 times Wal-Mart’s dollar gain, and the gain alone will exceed Wal-Mart’s total online sales.2.沃尔玛的增速基于一个小得多的数字。下图显示的是亚马逊和沃尔玛去年销售收入的实际增长额。尽管沃尔玛有望增长30亿美元(这已令人肃然起敬了),但亚马逊145亿美元的增长额是沃尔玛的近5倍,仅这一数字就远超沃尔玛的整体在线销售额。3. The shift of overall retail toward online from physical stores has pressured Wal-Mart’s growth in its brick and mortar operations. Last year, Wal-Mart’s overall US revenue growth, including online sales, was 1.6% with same store sales actually declining slightly.3.零售业整体从实体店向网上转移对沃尔玛实体店的经营构成了极大压力。去年沃尔玛在美国的总销售额增长率是1.6%,而同店销售额实际上是有所下降的。4. Amazon sales are recognized on a net basis. Since an increasing proportion of the sales are net dollars (at very high margins) received for selling other merchants products, the amount of sales that it controls far exceeds its reported revenue. They also report what amount of their services revenue is from the combination of Amazon Web Services credit card and advertising. If we assume that the remainder is their share of third-party merchant revenue (also known as Amazon Marketplace) (which is reported on a net basis) then we are able to calculate gross third-party merchant revenue by year. The conversion of that revenue to products sold by third-party merchants is a matter of projecting what Amazon’s average referral fee is for the marketplace. If we assume that Amazon receives 15%, on average, of total marketplace sales then we are able to calculate the total of all product revenue generated by Amazon. In 2013, this would be 5 billion rather than the billion reported by them as total revenue. And this total would be up 28% rather than the reported growth of 22% for the company.4.亚马逊的销售额是按照净值确认的。由于这些销售额中日益增长的部分为销售其他商家产品获得的净收入(利润极高),因此该公司实际掌控的销售额远超其所报收入。亚马逊还披露了该公司从亚马逊网络务(Amazon Web Services)信用卡和广告中获取的务收入。如果我们假定剩余销售额是亚马逊从第三方商家——也被称为亚马逊市场(Amazon Marketplace)——收入中获得的分成(也是按净值确认),那就可以计算出第三方商家每年的总收入。将这部分收入换算为第三方商家销售的商品,就可算出亚马逊从这个市场中所获的平均推介费。假定亚马逊收取的平均推介费为该市场总销售额的15%,那就可以算出亚马逊催生的所有产品销售总收入。2013年,这个数字就是1250亿美元,而不是该公司自己报告的740亿美元总收入。这一总数还意味着公司的销售额增长率是28%,而不是公司报称的22%。Amazon has been secretive about its third-party retailer business but does report the breakout of total services revenue from direct product revenue.亚马逊一直对其第三方零售业务讳莫如深,但却报告称,从直接产品收入中获取的总务收入大幅增长。Given the fact that Amazon is adding sales (in dollars) at 5 times the rate of Wal-Mart online, the question is whether it has enough inherent advantages to continue to significantly outpace Wal-Mart. The answer is yes. The obvious reasons include: a superior online brand, a multiple of customers that are regulars, more knowledge of how to use data, etc .. While these are not easy to replicate, if at all, an even more important issue is whether Wal-Mart’s distribution network could rival Amazon’s?既然亚马逊销售额(以美元计)增长速度是沃尔玛电商的五倍,问题就在于它是否有足够的内在优势继续大幅领先沃尔玛。是毫无疑问的。显而易见的理由有:卓越的电商品牌,大量的回头客,更精通数据应用,等等。尽管这些因素都很难复制,但更重要的问题是,沃尔玛的销售网络是否能胜过亚马逊的呢?Amazon currently has 125 active warehouses that serve end-customers around the world while Wal-Mart only has a handful. This may seem surprising for the world’s largest retailer but keep in mind that a distribution center for resupplying stores with inventory is a completely different animal than a warehouse for shipping directly to end customers. Recently, Wal-Mart has announced plans to build a 1.2 million square-foot warehouse in Indiana dedicated to e-commerce. Wal-Mart currently uses its 4,200 existing retail stores as a nexus for shipping to end customers. Approximately 20% of online orders are now shipped from a store. This strategy is likely much less efficient and could prove quite costly relative to Amazon warehouse that have been optimized solely for online orders.目前亚马逊有125个在用库房为全球终端用户务,而沃尔玛却只有不多的几个。这似乎有点让人吃惊,因为沃尔玛毕竟是全球最大的零售商。但要知道,为实体店补充存货所用的分销中心,和直接运往终端用户所用的库房是完全不同的两种东西。最近沃尔玛宣布,该公司计划在印第安纳州修建120万平方英尺,专供电子商务使用的库房。沃尔玛目前将其现有的4200家零售店作为向终端用户发货的枢纽。约有20%的在线订单是从这些店发货的。相对亚马逊的库房而言,这种战略的效率可能要低得多,而且成本可能要高得多。I’ve chosen to compare Amazon to Walmart, the retailer with the greatest capacity to compete with them. Others will be even harder pressed to hold off online retailers.本文我选了亚马逊与沃尔玛进行对比,沃尔玛毕竟是最有实力和电商竞争的零售商。其他零售商当然更难抵御电商的攻势。 /201410/338834


  Masayoshi Son, the billionaire founder of the telecommunications group SoftBank and perhaps Japan’s most successful example of an American-style entrepreneur, has made a career out of beating the odds. He casts himself in the mould of his hero, Soichiro Honda, an outsider who began making motors for bicycles and ended up building one of the world’s leading car manufacturers. Mr Son loves to recall how Honda defied Japan’s state planners, who wanted to restrict carmakers to a few national champions such as Toyota. Honda had to take on the establishment as well as his competitors.身为亿万富翁,电信集团软银(Softbank)的创始人孙正义(Masayoshi Son)是经过艰苦奋斗成就一番事业的,他或许也是全日本最成功的“美式企业家”。孙正义崇拜本田宗一郎(Soichiro Honda),视他为榜样。本田宗一郎从制造自行车的马达起家,最终打造起了一家全球领先的汽车制造商。孙正义喜欢回顾本田宗一郎是如何对抗日本的国家规划者的。政府当局原本只想让丰田(Toyota)等少数几家全国性龙头汽车企业得到发展,本田宗一郎不得不同时应对当局和竞争对手。Like Honda, Mr Son is a disrupter. He once playfully threatened to torch regulators’ headquarters if he did not have his way. He did (have his way, that is, not set the communications ministry ablaze). After acquiring Vodafone’s Japanese arm in 2006, he threw Japan’s staid telecoms monopoly into turmoil – much to the benefit of consumers.与本田宗一郎一样,孙正义是一个“搅局者”。他曾经开玩笑说,如果他达不到目的,就放火烧掉监管机构的总部大楼。他最终达到了目的(也就没有一把火烧了交通部)。2006年收购沃达丰(Vodafone)日本子公司以后,他打破了日本电信业一潭死水的垄断局面,其结果对消费者是很有利的。SoftBank started a price war. It also introduced new services and products, including Apple’s iPhone, which years before anyone else Mr Son realised would upend Japan’s sophisticated but isolated market.软银发起了价格战,并引入了新的务和产品,包括苹果公司(Apple)的iPhone。孙正义比所有人提前许多年意识到,iPhone将颠覆日本较为高端但封闭的电信市场。As an investor too, Mr Son has had moments of inspiration. Among the duds for which he has paid outlandish sums are some veritable gems. Most dazzling was his m punt 14 years ago on Alibaba, the Chinese ecommerce giant that was then just a twinkle in Jack Ma’s eye. SoftBank today finds itself with a 37 per cent stake in a company whose initial public offering later this year could value it at 0bn or more.孙正义还是一位投资家,时不时会迸发灵感。在他那些出资金额听起来离谱的投资中,有一些是真正的宝石。最令人叫绝的是14年前他拿出2000万美元投资阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的事例,当时马云还只有初步想法,如今阿里巴巴已发展成中国电商巨头。现在软银持有阿里巴巴37%的股权,而后者今年晚些时候上市后,市值可能达到1300亿美元以上。Now Mr Son is at it again, entangled in perhaps the biggest gamble of his life. He is taking on America. Last year SoftBank paid bn for a majority stake in Sprint, the third-largest US mobile provider. The aim is to “do a Vodafone” by using an also-ran carrier as a vehicle to disrupt an entire sector. This month, though, those plans ran into trouble. In the face of intractable opposition from US regulators, SoftBank withdrew its plan to combine with T-Mobile, the fourth-biggest carrier, a merger that was central to its strategy.现在孙正义再次出手,而且这或许将是他毕生中最大的。他要进军美国市场。去年软银以220亿美元收购了美国第三大移动通信运营商Sprint的多数股权。其目标是“打造一个沃达丰”,即利用一家并非顶尖的运营商来搅动美国整个移动通信行业。然而,这项计划在本月出了岔子。由于美国监管机构坚决反对,软银取消了与美国第四大运营商T-Mobile合并的计划,而这次合并对其战略至为关键。Mr Son is not giving up. He has appointed a new Sprint chief executive, Marcelo Claure to try to reverse the haemorrhaging of Sprint customers, hundreds of thousands of whom have defected in the past year.孙正义没有放弃。他任命马塞洛#8226;克劳尔(Marcelo Claure)为Sprint新首席执行官,以期扭转该公司用户大量流失的局面——在过去一年里流失了几十万用户。This week the contours of a new strategy began to emerge. Together with the Japanese company Sharp, SoftBank has developed a near-frameless cheap smartphone. Sprint will offer the Aquos Crystal handset with 100 free pre-installed apps, along with contracts allowing unlimited downloads. To underline Mr Son’s global ambitions, in July SoftBank poached Nikesh Arora, Google’s head of business operations, as group vice-chairman and chief executive of a US-based unit aimed at executing his disruptive strategy.一项新战略在上周开始显形。软银和日本夏普公司(Sharp)联手,开发出了一款近乎无边框的低端智能手机。Sprint将为Aquos Crystal提供100款预装的免费应用,以及允许无限量下载的合约。今年7月,软银挖来谷歌(Google)负责商业运营的尼克什#8226;阿罗拉(Nikesh Arora),请其出任集团副总裁兼美国某子公司的首席执行官,旨在执行其颠覆战略——孙正义的全球抱负从中可见一斑。There is a lot riding on Mr Son’s US adventure, and not only for SoftBank. Japanese manufacturers have a strong, if fading, record of challenging competitors on their own turf. Non-manufacturers have not fared so well. Nomura’s bold attempt to turn itself into a global investment bank failed. Efforts by pharma groups to expand abroad, including Daiichi Sankyo’s disastrous .7bn acquisition of Ranbaxy, an Indian generics maker, have not inspired confidence. Mr Son could do wonders by pulling off a victory.孙正义进军美国市场的成败至关重要,这不仅仅是对软银而言。日本制造企业在挑战竞争对手方面战绩斐然(现在可能稍为逊色)。非制造业企业则表现不是那么好。野村券(Nomura)转变为全球投行的大胆计划失败了。日本制药集团海外扩张的努力——包括第一三共株式会社(Daiichi Sankyo)以47亿美元灾难性地收购印度仿制药生产商Ranbaxy——也没有带给人鼓舞。如果孙正义在美国市场取得成功,他将创造一个奇迹。On the face of it, his US challenge looks similar to the one SoftBank undertook in Japan. Sprint is a David taking on two Goliaths, or Verizon and ATamp;T as they are known in the US. Both have roughly twice the number of Sprint’s subscribers. Like Japan-before-SoftBank, US mobile prices are high and speeds relatively slow. At a recent technology conference, Mr Son joked that foreigners’ experience of US internet services led them to wonder: “Oh my God, how can Americans live like this?”表面看来,孙正义在美国遇到的挑战,与软银在日本经历过的挑战颇为相似。Sprint好比与两个巨人对抗的大卫——Verizon和美国电报电话公司(ATamp;T)。这两家公司的用户数量都是Sprint的两倍左右。与软银出现之前的日本一样,美国移动通信不只资费高昂,而且速度相对缓慢。在最近的一次科技会议上,孙正义开玩笑地说道,外国人在体验过美国的互联网务之后会说:“天啊,美国人怎么会过这样的生活?”In truth, though, the US will be a much tougher nut to crack. Not only are Verizon and ATamp;T dominant, they have access to more spectrum than Sprint is ever likely to grasp. In Japan SoftBank was able to outflank competitors by simultaneously building an acceptable network and offering cheaper tariffs. In the US, although Sprint is making valiant efforts to upgrade its patchy network, it will be hard to catch the two market leaders. They have better coverage and ample cash flow with which to fund investment. If anything, T-Mobile, which has been gaining subscribers faster than Sprint has been losing them, looks like the successful upstart. “Sprint has a mountain to climb,” says Benedict Evans, a partner at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.然而,进军美国市场实际上要困难得多。Verizon和ATamp;T不仅在市场上占据主导地位,而且它们可以利用的频谱远广于Sprint。在日本,软银能够通过铺设让用户满意的网络和提供更便宜的资费来阻击竞争对手。而在美国,尽管Sprint在竭尽全力对自身不完善的网络进行升级,但要赶上那两个市场领军者还是非常困难的,后者的网络覆盖范围更广,而且有充足的现金流可以进行投资。如果说有什么区别的话,T-Mobile看起来是成功的新贵,它赢得用户的速度超过Sprint流失用户的速度。风险投资公司Andreessen Horowitz的合伙人班尼迪克#8226;埃文斯(Benedict Evans)表示:“Sprint面临着严峻的挑战。”Mr Son has taken knocks before. In the dotcom crash of the late 1990s, SoftBank’s shares lost most of their value and Mr Son is said to have suffered a paper loss of bn. That would have bankrupted most billionaires many times over, but not Mr Son. Time and again he has come back from the dead. “Nothing stops him,” says one telecoms analyst. “There’s no such thing as impossible for this guy.”孙正义以前受过挫折。上世纪90年代末,在互联网泡沫破灭期间,软银的绝大部分市值都蒸发掉了,据说孙正义个人的账面损失达到700亿美元。大多数亿万富翁要是损失这么大,都够破产好几次了,但孙正义没有。他一次又一次地东山再起。一位电信业的分析师表示:“任何事都阻止不了他,对他来说,没有什么是不可能的。”Nevertheless, even Mr Son concedes that, without T-Mobile, Sprint cannot muster the firepower to take on the industry leaders over the long haul. Before the deal was scuppered by regulators, he said that, without T-Mobile, Sprint lacked the scale for anything but a “pseudo fight”. Certainly, he has every chance of improving Sprint’s poor performance through innovation and network improvement. But to really shake the US market as he shook the Japanese one will take a change of heart from regulators. And they may be flame-proof.然而孙正义自己也承认,如果没有T-Mobile,Sprint无法长期集中火力挑战行业中的领军者。在监管机构否决这项并购交易之前,孙正义曾表示,如果没有T-Mobile,Sprint只能打一场“伪战斗”。当然,他完全有可能通过创新和改善网络来提升Sprint的糟糕业绩。但是,要像撼动日本市场那样真正撼动美国市场,除非让监管机构改变主意——这些监管机构可能不怕火。 /201408/324415。

  Ray Ozzie, the former Microsoft executive, has a revolutionary idea: Make phone calls cool again.微软公司(Microsoft)前高管雷o奥兹有一个革命性的创意:让打电话再次变得“酷”起来。It’s not clear that voice communication was ever cool. It was always more like a necessity. What is clear, however, is that it has been largely replaced by all sorts of real-time, text-based services, from SMS to the latest crop of mobile messaging apps. Ozzie thinks he’s found a way to revitalize the old-fashioned, voice-based phone call.语音通讯似乎历来和“酷”字沾不上边,充其量只是一项必要的功能。很显然,在很大程度上,语音通讯已经被各种基于文字的实时通讯务取代了,比如短信和近来大量涌现的移动通讯应用。但是奥兹认为,他找到了一种方法让传统的语音电话功能重新焕发青春。“I passionately believe that there’s immense latent potential in voice to convey tone and emotion, to quickly resolve issues, to make decisions and to get things done,” he wrote in a blog post announcing the launch of his new company, Talko (sounds like “taco”). “There’s simply no faster and no more effective way to express essential emotions such as urgency, anxiety, understanding, confidence or trust. Quite simply, amazing things can happen when we just choose to talk.”奥兹在一篇宣布他的新公司Talko正式成立的文中称:“我认为声音中蕴含着无限的潜能,它可以传递语调和情感,可以快速解决问题、做出决定、处理事情。要想表达诸如紧急、焦虑、理解、信心或者信任之类的情绪,基本上没有其他方式比声音更快、更有效。当我们选择用说话来交流时,总会发生一些令人惊奇的事情。”One of the ways Ozzie hopes to make voice-based communication relevant again is by infusing it with other methods, including text and images. Talko’s mobile application, which recently launched on Apple’s iOS mobile operating system, lets people make ordinary phone calls, send text messages, and share photos without having to open a separate application. The app also allows users to bookmark and tag conversations, and automatically records calls for playback purposes. The app’s interface lends itself to conference calls. A user can easily create groups using their phone’s address book, and therefore push out voice messages or initiate live calls to more than one person at a time.奥兹想到的令语音通讯重新焕发青春的方法之一,是把语音与文字、图像等其它交流方法融合起来。Talko移动应用最近刚刚登陆苹果iOS平台,除了可以拨打电话、发送短消息之外,它还可以直接发送图片,而无需再打开另外一个应用。另外,用户还可以对通话做“书签”或者标记,它还能自动对通话进行录音,用于回放。用户还可以非常方便地借助这款应用的界面发起多人电话会议。用户只需借助手机通讯录就可以轻松地创建对话群,因此可以一次性向多人推送语音消息或发起多人进行实时对话。“It won’t replace [email or messaging] but if we can increase the amount of talking I think it will help a lot,” Ozzie tells Fortune.奥兹对《财富》(Fortune)表示:“它不会取代(电子邮件或短消息),但如果我们能增加语音通话的数量,我认为它会起到很大帮助。”The long-time entrepreneur founded the company with Matt Pope and Eric Patey. The trio has raised money from Andreessen Horowitz, Greylock Partners, Kapor Capital, and from Ozzie himself. (The company won’t disclose exactly how much it has raised to date.)这家公司是奥兹与另外两名联合创始人马特o蒲伯和埃里克o佩蒂共同创办的。他们已经从安德里森-霍洛维奇基金(Andreessen Horowitz)、格雷洛克合伙公司(Greylock Partners)、卡普尔资本(Kapor Capital)和奥兹本人那里拉来了投资。(不过该公司没有透露目前获得的融资额。)Earlier in his career, Ozzie was one of the masterminds of Lotus Notes, the collaboration software that was eventually acquired by IBM . He later sold another company, Groove Networks, to Microsoft in 2005 and worked for the Redmond-based tech giant until he left in 2010. More recently, he joined the board of directors at Hewlett-Packard .在职业生涯的早期阶段,奥兹曾是协作软件Lotus Notes公司的主要幕后功臣之一,这家公司后来被IBM收购。奥兹又于2005年将他创办的另一家公司Groove Networks卖给了微软,然后在微软工作了五年,2010年时从微软离职。最近,他又加入了惠普公司(Hewlett-Packard)董事会。Despite deep knowledge of the technology industry and previous successes to his name, it’s a tall order for Ozzie to bring voice back in vogue. If the company takes off, it’s going to need business customers to embrace the app, not just consumers. Today, Talko is free, but the company plans to charge a monthly subscription fee to users who want their calls saved indefinitely. (The free version of the app will only preserve conversations for a 10-day period.)虽然奥兹对科技行业有很深的理解,此前的成功也让他小有名声,但要想让语音通话再次流行起来,恐怕也不是容易的事。这家公司要想展翅高飞,它不光需要普通消费者捧场,还得受到企业用户青睐才行。目前Talko仍然是免费的,但该公司计划向那些想要无限期地存储通话的用户按月收取费用。(Talko的免费版只能将通话储存10天)。Talko isn’t the only startup trying to make money in this category. Twilio, a development platform for voice communication, lets corporate customers create their own apps. That company recently launched a feature which lets users easily integrate images in its communications.Talko并非唯一一家试图在这个领域赚钱的公司。另一个语音通讯开发平台Twilio允许企业用户构建自己的应用。该公司最近推出了一项新的功能,可以使用户轻松地将图片整合进通话中。Voice is unlikely to make a strong comeback. (When’s the last time you checked your voicemail?) But it may have untapped potential when bundled with more fast-growing modern means of communication. Why shouldn’t you be able to quickly share photos of your surroundings while on a personal or work call?语音貌似不大可能会强势回归。(你最近一次检查语音邮箱是什么时候?)但一旦与各种热门的现代化通讯手段结合在一起,它还是有很多潜能可以挖掘的。如果你能在打电话的时候(不论是私人电话还是工作电话)快速分享照片的话,为什么不这样做呢?Ozzie says he plans to integrate other functions—such as document or sharing—into Talko’s calls in the near future. The company also plans to make the app available on Google’s Android mobile operating system as well as a web-based application.奥兹表示,他计划近期继续在Talko中添加其它功能,比如文档或视频分享等。该公司还打算推出安卓版和网页版应用。One place Talko won’t be available anytime soon? Microsoft’s mobile operating system, Windows Phone. Apparently, you can take the boy out of Microsoft and take the Microsoft out of the boy.不过有一个平台是Talko短期内不打算登陆的,那就是微软的Windows Phone系统。显然,离开微软之后,奥兹身上已经没有一丁点“微软情怀”了。 /201410/332277



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