首页>要闻>天下           天下         



2017年12月14日 00:45:38 | 作者:明镜助手 | 来源:新华社
For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the ed States.至少目前看,希拉釷克林顿6%的几率打败唐纳德·特朗普,成为美国新一任总统。A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw.但特朗普依然相当可能获胜:克林顿失利的可能性与一名NBA球员罚球不进的几率相当。This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April.这样的大选胜负几率是《纽约时报》“结语”专The Upshot)的大选预测模型做出的第一轮预测,是基于各个州的投票历史,以及月中以来就竞选进行的00项州和全国性民意调查得出。Our model suggests Mrs. Clinton is a strong favorite in 15 states, enough to give her 186 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the White House. Add to this eight states that polls currently show are leaning Democratic including Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania and Mrs. Clinton would have 275 electoral votes and the presidency.我们的模型显示,克林顿在15个州获得了着强有力的持,足以让她拿到赢得大选所需70张选举人票中的186张。再加上民意调查目前显示有另外八个州倾向于民主党——包括明尼苏达、密歇根和宾夕法尼亚——预计克林顿将获75张选举人票,由此赢得总统职位。But, with 16 weeks remaining in the campaign, a lot can change. Using the same model, we would have said that Bill Clinton had less than a 20 percent chance to win the presidency with roughly four months to go in 1992. It was only after Ross Perot left the race and the Democrats rallied around Mr. Clinton after the Democratic convention that his polls improved. And they improved sharply. One month later, he was an 84 percent favorite.然而,考虑到距离最后的投票时间还有16周,很多情况有可能发生改变。使用同一个模型,我们本会预测,在距离1992年大选还有大个月时,比尔·克林顿赢得竞选的几率只有不到20%。只是在罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)退出竞选,民主党人在该党全国大会之后团结在克林顿周围之时,他的民意调查结果才有所改善。而且是急剧提升。一个月后,他的获胜几率达到4%。This kind of polling volatility should be expected, particularly with party conventions at hand. It is one reason that Mrs. Clinton’s probability of victory is not higher. Current polling averages suggest a four-point victory in the national popular vote for Mrs. Clinton, if nothing changes. But we expect changes between now and Election Day.应该对这种民意调查的剧烈变化做好心理准备,尤其是考虑到两党的全国大会就在眼前。正因如此,克林顿的获胜几率没有更高一些。如果情况不发生任何改变,目前的民意调查显示克林顿在全国普选中个点的赢面。但我们料想从现在到大选日会有一些改变发生。The Upshot is not the only news organization trying to forecast election results. We believe each model provides useful glimpses of possible futures, so we are compiling forecasts from a variety of them into one easy-to-digest table.“结语”专栏不是唯一一个试图预测大选结果的新闻机构。我们相信每种模型都可以提供一些有关未来可能性的有用信息,所以我们在将各种预测信息汇总,编辑成一个易于理解的表格。Viewed side by side, the differences among the models become clearer. Arizona, for example, is rated as a tossup by FiveThirtyEight, while our model has not yet seen enough polling evidence to revise its assessment of Arizona’s recent history as a Republican-leaning state. Similarly, while the betting markets rate New Mexico as almost a sure thing in the Democratic column, our model is not as certain, giving Mr. Trump a 21 percent chance to upset Mrs. Clinton there.放在一起看,不同模型的区别变得更加一目了然。比如,亚利桑那州被客网站FiveThirtyEight列为没有明确倾向的州,而我们的模型还没看到太多的民意调查据,不足以修改亚利桑那在最近这些年中作为倾向共和党的州的判断。同样地,尽管市场将新墨西哥州列为几乎可以肯定会持民主党的州,我们的模型却没有如此确定,而是认为特朗普在该州1%的几率击败克林顿。来 /201607/455640Mr Buffett said he had paid income tax every year since 1944 following Mr Trump’s assertion that he had taken a ;massive deduction; during Sunday’s TV debate with Democrat Hillary Clinton.在上周日的总统电视辩论中,川普声称巴菲特得到了“大量减税”,而随后巴菲特则表示说他从1944年以来,每年都缴纳了个人所得税。In 1995, Mr Trump claimed losses of 6m (736m pound) to reduce his tax burden.1995年,川普声称自己亏损.16亿美约合7.36亿英,从而减小自己的税务负担。There is no evidence he did anything illegal.没有据显示川普做了任何违法的事。Mr Trump was asked during the debate by moderator Anderson Cooper if he had taken advantage of the ;carryforward; rule, which allows businesspeople to offset a big loss incurred one year against income made in subsequent years for tax purposes.在总统辩论中,主持人安德森·库珀询问川普是否利用了“亏损预报措施”,这一条例使得商人可以用某一年的巨额亏损来抵消随后几年的应纳税额;Of course I do. Of course I do, and so do all of her donors, or most of her donors,; he said, referring to Mrs Clinton’s supporters, before going on to name Mr Bufffett.川普说道:“我当然这样做啦。我的确这样做了,希拉里所有或者至少大部分捐助者们也这样做了。”川普在回应中指出了希拉里的持者,但是那时还没有说出巴菲特的名字。Mr Buffett said he had never taken advantage of the carryforward rule, in a statement on Monday.在周一的一份声明中,巴菲特表示他从未利用过亏损预报措施这一便利;I have paid federal income tax every year since 1944, when I was 13. I have copies of all 72 of my returns and none uses a carryforward,; he said.他说道:“从1944年以来我每年都缴纳了联邦个人所得税,那时我3岁。我保存着2年来所有的纳税凭,都未使使用过亏损预报措斀?”Mr Buffett said his 2015 federal income tax payment had been .8m after calculating gross income of .5m from which deductions of .5m, including .5m of charitable donations, were then subtracted. He also said he had given away a further .85bn to charity.据巴菲特称,015年的全部个人所得为1150万美元,减去包括350万美元慈善捐赠在内的550万资金之后,他一共缴纳了180万美元的联邦个人所得税。巴菲特还表示他将进一步向慈善机构捐赠28.5亿美元的资金。He suggested Mr Trump make his own tax details public, something the Republican candidate has so far refused to do.巴菲特还建议川普公布他自己的详细纳税记录,此前川普曾一直拒绝这一要求;I have no problem in releasing my tax information while under audit. Neither would Mr Trump - at least he would have no legal problem,; Mr Buffett said.巴菲特说道:“我完全可以向审计公布我的纳税信息。而川普则不可能这样做--至少他不会有法律问题。”Mrs Clinton has released her 2015 tax return, showing that she and her husband Bill paid a 34% rate of federal tax and a 9% rate of state tax on a total income of .5m.希拉里已经公布了015年的纳税信息,数据显示希拉里和其丈夫比尔·克林015年共收入1050万美元,他们为此一共付了34%的联邦税%的州税。来 /201610/470563

The damage a President Trump could do to the American republic is thankfully limited. A president is not a king. There are laws and a court to enforce them. There is Congress to block him. If a president breaks the law, he can be impeached. America may become a more intolerant and chaotic place under Donald Trump, but thanks to its institutions the republic will survive. 谢天谢地,唐纳德#8226;特朗Donald Trump)当选为总统对美利坚共和国的破坏将是有限的。总统不是国王。他们会受到法律和法庭的限制,而且还有国会的掣肘。如果总统违法,他可能受到弹劾。在特朗普的领导下,美国可能成为一个更加偏狭和混乱之地,但得益于其制度,美利坚共和国将会存活下来The world is a different matter. The president enjoys his or her greatest power in foreign policy. His power to use force is well known. As important, though, is what he can choose not to do. He can unilaterally refuse to defend an ally. He can choose to strike a bargain with Russia instead of deterring it. He can pull out of a trade deal. There are fewer checks and balances. Damage done in one year may never be undone. 全世界的情况则有所不同。美国总统在外交政策上的权力最大。他动用武力的权力众所周知。然而,同样重要的是,他可以选择不做什么。他可以单方面拒绝捍卫盟友。他可以选择与俄罗斯达成协议而非威慑。他可以退出贸易协定。美国带来的制衡作用将会减弱。一年的破坏就可能永远难以消除A Trump administration would pose the greatest shock to international peace and stability since the 1930s. This is not because Mr Trump would invade other countries but because he would unilaterally liquidate the liberal international order that presidents have built and defended since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If the word “isolationisthas any meaning, he qualifies as one. 特朗普政府对国际和平和稳定的冲击将会是上世纪30年代以来最大的。这不是因为特朗普将会入侵其他国家,而是因为他将会单方面地瓦解自富兰克林#8226;德拉#8226;罗斯Franklin Delano Roosevelt)起美国历任总统创建和捍卫的国际自由秩序。如果“孤立主义者”这个单词有意义的话,他就是一个孤立主义者Mr Trump has a coherent and consistent worldview that dates back almost 30 years when he spent ,000 on a full-page advertisement in the New York Times to publish an open letter to the American people on US foreign policy. It was this worldview that he described to the Washington Post editorial board on Monday. It appears in virtually every interview and speech he has given about world affairs since the 1980s. 特朗普拥有一套连贯一致的世界观,其痕迹可以追溯至0年前,当时他拿出9.5万美元在《纽约时报New York Times)刊登了一整版广告,向美国民众发表关于美国外交政策的公开信。他在本周一向《华盛顿邮报Washington Post)的编委描述了这种世界观。实际上自上世纪80年代以来,他在几乎每场关于世界事务的采访和演讲中都阐述了这种世界观Simply put, Mr Trump thinks America’s allies and partners are ripping it off and he wants out of America’s leadership role in the international order. Over and over again, Mr Trump has questioned why the US defends Japan, South Korea, Germany and other nations without being paid for it. Just this week, he promised to significantly diminish US involvement in Nato and when asked if America “gained anythingfrom having bases in east Asia he replied “personally I don’t think so This is not about a more equitable share of the burden, which many have called for. Mr Trump believes that the US gains little from having allies unless it is paid handsomely paid by them. 简言之,特朗普认为美国的盟友和合作伙伴在敲美国的“竹杠”,他希望美国退出国际秩序中的领导角色。特朗普一次次地质问,为何美国要不计报酬地捍卫日本、韩囀?德国以及其他国家?就在本周,他承诺大幅削减美国在北约的参与,而且在被问及美国是否从东亚的基地“获得什么”的时候,他回答称“我个人认为没有”。这不是像许多人呼吁的那样更加公平地分担责任。特朗普相信,美国几乎没有从结盟中受益,除非盟友们付丰厚报酬He also opposes every trade deal America has signed over the past 30 years. He wants to use tariffs and other protectionist measures to bludgeon other countries into accepting lopsided agreements that disproportionately benefit the US. He has suggested charging other countries for use of the sea lanes. Under his presidency, the open global economy would slam shut. 他还反对美国在过0年签署的所有贸易协定。他希望动用关税和其他保护主义措施来强迫其他国家接受让美国从中极大受益的不对称协议。他提议对其他使用航路的国家收取费用。如果他担任美国总统,开放的全球经济将砰然关闭As he shuns America’s allies, Mr Trump would seek to strike deals with Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, and other authoritarian strong men. Mr Trump has received Mr Putin’s endorsement and has called for much better relations with Russia. 在避开美国盟友的同时,特朗普会寻求和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)等专制的政治强人领袖达成协议。特朗普已经得到了普京的持,并呼吁大力改善美俄关系Meanwhile, to deal with threats to the American homeland, Mr Trump has promised his own Chechnya-style scorched-earth policy of targeting civilians and using torture. 同时,为了应对美国国土的威胁,特朗普承诺实施他的车臣式焦土政策——把平民列为打击目标,并使用酷刑Some think that Mr Trump will moderate these positions if he is elected, but it is unlikely that a 70-year old who has held these views for decades and probably views himself as a prophet will abandon them at exactly the moment he feels vindicated and empowered. 有些人认为,当选后特朗普的这些立场会有所缓和,但一个数十年来都抱着这些想法,并且很可能把自己看成先知的70岁的人,不太可能在他感到自己被明有理而且掌握权力的那一刻放弃这些想法The day after his election, allies in Europe and Asia will rightly worry if their security relationship with the US remains intact. Russia and China will have an unprecedented opportunity to achieve in a single presidential term what they thought would take decades, namely the destruction of the US-led alliance system. 在他当选之后,美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友完全有理由担忧它们与美国的安全合作关系是否还能保持原样。俄罗斯和中国将获得一个史无前例的机会在一届总统任期内完成它们此前认为需要花数十年才能实现的目标——即摧毁美国领导的同盟体系These are the true stakes of the 2016 election. The campaign will be unlike any other as the fundamental pillars of post-second world war American foreign policy are put up for debate. Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee, might be synonymous with the establishment, but her destiny is clear. It is to explain why an open and liberal international order benefits ordinary Americans. It is to show how the closing of the global economy, the end of alliances and dawning of an authoritarian age poses as great a threat to American interests now as it did in the late 1940s when the architecture of US leadership was created. 这是2016年的美国大选真正关系重大的地方。这场大选不同于其他任何一场,因为美国二战后外交政策的核心成为了辩论的焦点。很可能会成为民主党总统候选人的希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)或许是建制派的代名词,但她的使命很清楚。那就是解释为何自由开放的国际秩序让普通美国人受益,向他们展示国际经济的封闭、同盟的瓦解,以及威权时代的到来对美国利益威胁之大将不亚于上世纪40年代末由美国扮演领导角色的架构刚建立的时候The international order can survive many things terrorist attacks, Russian aggression, Chinese revisionism and an international financial crisis but the collapse of American leadership may prove a disaster too far. 国际秩序能够经受住许多东西的侵袭——恐怖主义袭击、俄罗斯的侵略、中国的修正主义和一场国际金融危机——但美国领导地位的崩塌很可能会被明是一场破坏性过大的灾难。来 /201603/433537

Those poor dogs went from one hell to another Hundreds of animals that Hollywood crusader vowed to rescue from the dinner table in China were later left to die in sweltering cages可怜的,从一个地狱到另一个地狱:好莱坞十字军发誓要从中国餐桌上拯救的数百条,后来死在闷热的笼子里When Hollywood stars including Matt Damon, Joaquin Phoenix and Minnie Driver filmed an emotional appeal to stop China’s brutal dog meat trade, horrified animal lovers from Britain and around the world rallied to the cause.马特·达蒙,瓦昆·菲尼克斯和明妮·德瑞弗等好莱坞明星,曾经拍摄了一部情感诉求的电影,呼吁中国叫停残忍的肉交易。来自英国和世界各地的数百名受惊吓的动物爱好者持这一事业。Volunteers from the UK and the US flew out to help charismatic animal crusader Marc Ching who orchestrated the celebrity appeal stage a daring bid to shut down slaughterhouses and rescue 1,000 dogs from the dinner table.来自英国和美国的志愿者,坐飞机前去帮助编排了名人诉求的动物保护活动家Marc Ching ,呼吁关闭屠宰场,从餐桌上拯000条。But a Mail on Sunday investigation has found that unknown to his Hollywood backers and donors Ching’s high-profile operation deteriorated into farce, and ended with hundreds of dogs suffering slow and excruciatingly painful deaths within days of being rescued.这些动物爱好者承诺在西方为这些寻找安身之所。然而一项调查发现,高调的行动演化成了闹剧,结果数百条获救数天后慢慢地痛苦死去。来 /201611/480827

The confrontation between the technology industry and the FBI over encryption has deepened after Apple pledged to fight a court order that it help unblock an iPhone used by the perpetrators of December’s San Bernardino shooting.苹果(Apple)声称将抗辩一项法院命令,该命令要求苹果帮助解锁去2月圣贝纳迪诺(San Bernardino)击案行凶者使用的一部iPhone。苹果此举令科技行业与美国联邦调查局(FBI)之间围绕加密的对抗加深。Tim Cook, Apple chief executive, said the federal court ruling was a “chillingexample of “over-reach by the US governmentand claimed the company was being asked “to build a back door to the iPhonewhich he said was “too dangerous to create苹果首席执行官蒂姆錠Tim Cook)表示,这份联邦法院裁决是“美国政府伸手过长”的一个“可怕”例子。他声称,法院要求苹果“在iPhone上创建一个后门”,他表示,“这么做太危险了”。The ruling has brought to a head a dispute over encryption and privacy between Silicon Valley and law enforcement that has been simmering for more than a year and sets up a legal showdown that could potentially end up in the Supreme Court. Mr Cook’s sharply-worded statement came hours after a Los Angeles judge said the company must provide “reasonable technical assistanceto the FBI in its efforts to get information off the phone.这项裁决使硅谷和执法机构之间发酵了一年多的有关加密和隐私的争议白热化,成为可能最终闹到最高法院的一次法律摊牌。库克发出上述言辞激烈的声明几个小时之前,一名洛杉矶法官表示,苹果公司必须向FBI提供“合理的技术援助”,帮其获取iPhone中的信息。Industry executives fear that US government pressure to weaken encryption could damage the credibility of their products which was aly hit by the 2013 Edward Snowden revelations. They also worry that authoritarian governments would force them to hand over the same techniques to get around security systems. “This is the most important tech case in a decade,Mr Snowden tweeted yesterday.科技行业高管害怕,美国政府在弱化加密上的施压,可能破坏其产品的可信度,2013年爱德华斯诺Edward Snowden)的爆料已经让其产品的可信度受损。他们还担心,威权政府将迫使他们交出同样的技术,用于绕过安全系统。“这是十年来最重要的科技案,”斯诺登昨日在Twitter上发言称。The FBI has been warning for months that new encryption procedures allow terrorists to “go darkfrom surveillance approved by courts and make it harder to conduct criminal and national security investigations.几个月以来,FBI一直在警告称,新的加密程序使恐怖分子可以对法院批准的监视“隐身”,使执行刑事和国家安全调查变得更困难。The iPhone belonged to Syed Rizwan Farook, who, alongside his wife, Tashfeen Malik, carried out a mass shooting at the San Bernardino County Department of Public Health. Mr Farook and his wife were later killed by police in a shootout.上述iPhone手机属于赛义德里兹万法鲁Syed Rizwan Farook)。他和妻子塔什费恩氠利Tashfeen Malik)在圣贝纳迪诺县公共卫生局(Department of Public Health)朝多人开。法鲁克和妻子随后在交火中被警察击毙。The ruling orders Apple to create software that would allow the FBI to try and break the password.法院裁决要求苹果公司开发让FBI能够尝试破解密码的软件。Mr Cook’s decision to publish an open letter to customers, rather than debating the issue through the courts or in private meetings with the authorities, is unusually forthright for the company.库克决定发布一封致用户的公开信,而不是在法庭上、或与当局在私下会议中辩论此问题,这对于苹果公司而言直率得非同寻常。Donald Trump called on Apple to open up the phone to authorities. “I agree 100 per cent with the courts.the Republican presidential candidate said.唐纳德礠朗普(Donald Trump)呼吁苹果为当局解锁那部iPhone。“我百分百认同法院的看法,”这位共和党总统竞选人表示。来 /201602/427264

  • 360明医南昌市中医院祛眼袋多少钱
  • 南昌市第三医院纹眉多少钱
  • 南昌大学第四附属医院激光去痘多少钱
  • 首都知名江西省医院双眼皮多少钱
  • 光明翻译南昌同济医疗整形美容医院整形
  • 南昌割双眼皮多少钱啊
  • 华东互动南昌同济整形打溶脂针多少钱
  • 南昌同济医院种植眉毛做的怎么样
  • 南昌大学第三附属医院祛疤多少钱
  • 69媒体九江学院附属医院西院瘦腿针多少钱
  • 江西生殖医学中心激光去痘多少钱国际医管家
  • 江西去除腋毛多少钱
  • 江西省南昌同济医院做红色胎记手术多少钱国际晚报南昌快速祛色斑哪家医院好
  • 新余市渝水区分宜县去眼角纹多少钱
  • 上饶去痘医院哪家好中医频道南昌哪家医院夏天到了怎么去毛等
  • 南昌市信丰县大余县赣县龙南县定南县去痘医院哪家好央广百宝箱
  • 飞渡晚报南昌市中医医院做隆胸手术多少钱
  • 江西治疗黄褐斑要多少钱
  • 南昌中医院绣眉多少钱
  • 江西省丰胸多少钱
  • 南昌大学第三附属医院做去眼袋手术多少钱好大夫联播江西省人民医院激光去掉雀斑多少钱
  • 萍乡无痕丰胸手术费用豆瓣咨询
  • 南昌同济医院双眼皮费用
  • 飞渡号吉安丰胸医院哪家好
  • 宜春市袁州区高安市丰城市鼻部修复多少钱
  • 江西省人民医院抽脂多少钱指导微博
  • 好大夫中心南昌省人民医院脱毛多少钱
  • 江西省医院激光去红血丝多少钱
  • 南昌市第一人民医院做去疤手术多少钱
  • 吉安吉水县新干县永丰县泰和县遂川县丰胸医院哪家好
  • 相关阅读
  • 明天开始一年内赚的盆满钵满穷的只剩钱的生肖
  • 百倍的热情千遍的呵护万分的用心品鉴华菱星马运煤专线上
  • 洛阳城市建设勘察设计院有限公司招聘信息
  • 阿梅你真的学了中医比较擅长是哪一方面的?你是在乡下学的吗
  • 深圳互金协会发布通知严禁成员单位开展首付贷等违规业务
  • 乌兰察布市召开十三五人才发展规划座谈会
  • 《梦想的声音》本周逆势上扬田馥甄浓妆惊艳颠覆
  • 特朗普要废了耶伦?华尔街的小心脏都要跳出来了!
  • 车市之星专访上海锦俊总经理尤悦梅
  • 地铁时代常青城暂无房源可售(图)
  • 编辑:好大夫专题