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2018年05月22日 04:31:33 | 作者:首都活动 | 来源:新华社
It was a short, well-flagged mission and no shots were fired. But Beijing has been pitched into uncharted waters over how to respond to Tuesday’s operation in which a US warship challenged its claims in the South China Sea.这是一个短暂的、预先打过招呼的任务,没有放一一弹。但在如何回应美国军舰周二挑战中国在南中国海领海主张的问题上,中国政府进入了未知水域。While state media lit up with emotional appeals to nationalism on Wednesday, the official response has so far been muted.尽管周三的官方媒体充满了情绪化的民族主义呼吁,但中国政府迄今的回应相当低调。“China’s defence ministry is strongly opposed to this act and lodges solemn representations,was all the military could muster on Tuesday, while the foreign ministry summoned the US ambassador to lodge a complaint.周二军方作出的唯一表态是:“中国国防部对此表示坚决反对并向美方提出严正交涉,”同时中国外交部召见美国驻华大使提出抗议。But support seems to be building for a firmer response and one option, alluded to obliquely by one senior official on Tuesday, is to militarise the islands something Beijing has this far insisted is not its objective.但持做出更强硬回应的观点似乎逐渐占据上风,一位高官周二含蓄提到的一个选项是将这些岛屿军事化——北京方面迄今坚称,这并非其目标。“We do not hope that in the end China has no choice but to find that it is indeed necessary for us to accelerate and strengthen our capabilities there,said Lu Kang, a foreign ministry spokesman.外交部发言人陆慷表示:“事实上,如果有关方面一再在本地区制造紧张,无事生非,最终也许会使中方不得不得出这样一个结论,那就是我们确实有必要加强、加快相关能力建设。”Aerial pictures taken by the US aly show airfields and fortifications: on Fiery Cross Reef a 3,000m runway has been constructed that is capable of handling fighter jets. A second such airfield appears to be under construction on another island.美国的航拍图片已经显示出这些岛屿上建有简易机场和防御工事:在永暑Fiery Cross Reef)上已经建成了长达3000米、能够起降战斗机的跑道。在另一个岛屿上似乎正在建设第二个此类跑道。Wu Shicun, president of the Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, is among those who believe Beijing may choose the militarisation route, stationing fighter planes and warships on the islands.一些人相信,中国政府可能选择军事化路线,派遣战斗机和军舰进驻这些岛屿,总部位于海南的中国南海研究院(National Institute for South China Sea Studies)院长吴士存就是其中之一。“If America only comes into the South China Sea this one time, then China might only take one-time action. If America decides to frequently enter this region, this will make China feel threatened... will have a reason to militarise the islands in order to ensure their safety.”“如果美国只是这次进入南海,那么中国也只会采取一次性行动。如果美国决定频繁进入该地区,就会让中国感到威胁……他们将有理由军事化这些岛屿以确保安全。”Richard Bitzinger of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore concurs. “I don’t think the Chinese need much excuse to militarise the islands,he says. “The escalation so far has been chiefly on their side. They will wait to see how often the US does this and for how long, and whether other countries, such as Japan, get involved.”新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究S Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的理查德毕辛Richard Bitzinger)对此表示赞同。他说:“我不认为中国人需要很多借口才会军事化这些岛屿。事态是否升级迄今主要取决于他们这边。他们将拭目以待,看看美国采取这种行动的频度和持续时间,以及日本等其他国家是否卷入。”Others see less bellicose outcomes. Gary Li of Beijing-based consultancy Apco Worldwide sees China finding a “face-saving and de-escalatory pathout of the confrontation if the US makes no further incursions.其他人则认为不会出现剑拔弩张的结果。北京安可顾问公APCO Worldwide)的加里丠(Gary Li)认为,中国将找到“既保全面子又不会升级事态的方法”摆脱对峙——如果美国不再进一步靠近的话。“The islands are always going to be militarised to an extent. But the difference is whether there are 10 guys living in houses with stilts, or several hundred guys in reinforced bunkers with fighter planes,he said.他说:“这些岛屿本来就会在某种程度上军事化。但不同之处在于,是10个人住在高架房里,还是数百人驻守在加固掩体里,还配备有战斗机。”Much will hinge on the next US move and whether or not it targets other countries, which would demonstrate impartiality.事态在很大程度上取决于美国的下一步的举措,以及它是否针对其他国家——进入其他国家人造岛周边水域将表明美国是不偏不倚的。Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie Tsinghua Centre in Beijing, says: “The fact that [the US] hadn’t operated near the features in question since 2012, and are now doing so after a period of heightened tension in US-China relations over this issue, likely contributes to China’s perception that the primary US goal here is to target them.”卡内基-清华中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)主任韩磊(Paul Haenle)表示:“美国自2012年以来没有在相关岛屿附近执行任务,而现在在美中在这个问题上关系紧张了一段时间后采取这样的行动,这很可能让中国认为,美国的主要目标是针对他们。”来 /201510/406681

Shortly after David Cameron’s arrival in Downing Street, an official observed that the UK prime minister showed slight interest in global affairs. In a phrase recalling the biting satire of the television sitcom Yes Minister, the aide continued that Mr Cameron was more inclined to see the world as “somewhere to go on holiday在英国首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)入住唐宁街之后不久,一位官员称,卡梅伦对全球事务兴趣不大。这位助手接着说了一句令人想起幽默电视剧《是,大臣!Yes Minister)中的辛辣讽刺的话,他说,卡梅伦更倾向于将世界看作一个“度假的地方”。At the time I thought this a touch unfair. In the British system it is rare for incoming prime ministers to know, or care, much about foreign affairs. Five years later it is evident that the principal markers of Mr Cameron’s foreign and defence policies have been drift and retreat. Some weeks ago he told his office to clear his diary of all “discretionarytravel. America’s Barack Obama and Germany’s Angela Merkel could be left to douse the fires raging in Ukraine and the Middle East. He had an election to fight. So his appearance at this week’s Brussels summit was only a brief break from the campaign.当时我认为这有点不公平。在英国体系下,新任首相很少有了解或关心外国事务的。五年过去,卡梅伦外交和防务政策上的主要特点很明显是放任自流和向后撤退。数周前,他让首相办公室取消所有“随意”旅行的行程。美国的巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)和德国的安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)完全可以自己去扑灭乌克兰和中东地区的“大火”。卡梅伦得应对选战,因此他出现在上周的布鲁塞尔峰会只是选举活动中的短暂休息。In retrospect, the signs were indeed there in the early days. The new government embarked on what was called a strategic defence review, promising to reshape the armed forces in the light of new threats and capabilities. The exercise was anything but strategic. The Treasury took control. Unsurprisingly given the size of the nation’s fiscal deficit, the result was a series of deep and haphazard spending cuts.回过头来看,这方面的确早有端倪。新政府当初启动了所谓的战略防务评估,承诺根据新的威胁和能力重塑军力。这绝对和战略无关。它由英国财政部掌控。考虑到英国财政赤字的规模,该评估的结果是一系列重大而随意的减也就不奇怪了。Politically sensitive projects such as an order for two aircraft carriers and a commitment to renew the Trident nuclear deterrent survived the axe. Much else did not. The army is being cut by a fifth to 82,000 troops. Britain is now among a handful of island nations without any maritime surveillance aircraft. When Russian submarines prowl the waters near Trident’s base, Britain must beg aerial assistance from allies. It struggled to find a few ageing Tornado bombers to join the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.一些政治敏感项目逃过了被裁减的命运,比如两艘航母的订单以及更新三叉戟核威慑系统的承诺。其他许多项目则未能幸免。军队人数削减五分之一,至8.2万人。英国现在是少数几个没有任何海上侦察机的岛国之一。当俄罗斯潜艇在三叉戟基地附近海域潜行时,英国不得不请求盟友的空中援。它勉强才找到几架老化的“狂风Tornado)轰炸机来参加对“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的作战。The aircraft carriers are due in service from 2020 but the Ministry of Defence has yet to work out what to do with them. The problem is money. A carrier group can be a powerful statement of military prowess but the carrier needs the protection of destroyers and frigates as well as aircraft to sit on the deck. A typical US carrier operates with about 72 fixed-wing aircraft. The British ships are promised 12. The shortage of escorts may limit ocean-going deployments to three months. If the carrier were to set off for, say, the Pacific it would have to turn around almost as soon as it arrived.英国的新航母将从2020年起役,但英国国防部迄今仍未制定出相关计划。问题出在资金方面。一个航母编队可能展示出强大的军力,但航母需要驱逐舰和护卫舰的保护,而且还要有舰载机。一艘普通的美国航母通常载有大约72架固定翼飞机。而英国的航母被许诺了12架。缺少护卫可能让远洋航行时间限制个月之内。比如说,如果航母的目的地是太平洋,那它差不多刚抵达那里就不得不返航。Mr Cameron has surrendered the security of the realm to the Treasury’s bean counters. A prisoner of fiscal fundamentalism, the Treasury wants five more years of austerity if the Conservatives are re-elected. The prime minister has thus reneged on a pledge that the 2010 defence cuts would be followed by modest increases from 2015. He has refused to renew a commitment to hold spending to a Nato target of 2 per cent of national income. Instead he wants to fiddle the figures by including spending on intelligence in the Nato calculation.卡梅伦将国家安全拱手交给了财政部那帮精打细算的“数豆人”。如果保守党再次当选,作为财政原教旨主义的囚徒,英国财政部希望再过五年的紧缩日子。因此卡梅伦已经食言——他010年削减国防预算时曾承诺从2015年起将会小幅增加国防预算。他拒绝继续承诺将国防开占国民收入的比例保持在北约(NATO)制定%的目标。相反,他希望将情报出算作国防开来糊弄这一目标。A promise that the army will be spared further cuts has been emptied of meaning by the budgetary arithmetic. A report by the Royal ed Services Institute, a respected think-tank, suggests that the army may soon be heading down towards 50,000, the smallest since Britain lost the American colonies during the 18th century. Little wonder the US administration thinks that Britain is becoming an unreliable partner.此前承诺的不会对英国陆军进一步裁军,在预算数字面前也成空头票。根据受敬重的智库英国皇家联合军种研究院(Royal ed Services Institute)的报告,英国陆军可能很快会削减至5万人,缩小至8世纪失去美洲殖民地以来的最小规模。难怪美国政府认为英国正变成一个不可靠的伙伴。Once or twice Mr Cameron has shown a taste for liberal interventionism in Libya and in a thwarted attempt to back air strikes against the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. He has had some tough things to say about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These are exceptions to prove the rule. His typical response to the present era of tumultuous geopolitical upheaval is insouciant indifference.卡梅伦有过一两次表现出他对自由干涉主义的偏好,比如在利比亚局势上,以及在一个遭到否决的企图上——卡梅伦曾欲持对叙利亚巴沙#8226;阿萨Bashar al-Assad)政权的空中打击。他对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰也发表过一些犀利言论。这些反常行为只是明了一条定律——对于当今时代动荡的地缘政治剧变,他的典型反应是漠不关心。Even before he promised a referendum that could see Britain quit the EU, Mr Cameron had stepped back from Europe. British policy had been always to keep a seat at the table, even when it chose not to join a particular enterprise. Now the government exults in leaving an empty chair. The prime minister says his preference is for Britain to remain in a “reformedEU. He never answers the question as to why. As for the rising powers, China, India and the rest are viewed as markets or sources of investment rather than as potential allies or adversaries. The Foreign Office has been rebadged as a sales force for Britain PLC.甚至在卡梅伦答应举行可能导致英国退出欧EU)的全民公决前,他就已经退出了欧洲。英国过去的一贯政策是保留一席之地,哪怕是它选择不加入某个特定计划时。而现在英国政府正洋洋得意地留下一个空椅子。英国首相表示他更愿意让英国留在一个“改革后”的欧盟里,却从不回答为什么要这么说。而对于中囀?印度等正在崛起的大国,卡梅伦将它们视作市场或投资来源,而不是潜在的盟友或对手。英国外交部已经改头换面成了英国这一“商号”的销售部门。In some ways all this fits the temper of the times. Economic circumstances have been tough and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have damped public enthusiasm for expeditionary warfare. There is a mood abroad that says Britain has done its fair share.在某些方面,这一切都顺应了当今时代的脾性。经济环境一直不太乐观,伊拉克和阿富汗的连番战火已降低了大众对远征作战的热情。国外有舆论表示英国已经做好了分内工作。But why then is Mr Cameron building aircraft carriers and nuclear-armed submarines? Explicable as it may be the temptation to retreat collides with two central facts of geopolitics. The first is that world is a more dangerous and unpredictable place than it has been since the end of the cold war think, most obviously, of the sp of jihadi terrorism from west Africa to south Asia and, closer to home, of the efforts of Mr Putin to upend the peace in Europe.但是,那为什么卡梅伦还要造航母和核武器潜艇呢?后撤的诱惑虽然可以理解,但与地缘政治两大核心事实相冲突。首先,现在这个世界比冷战结束以来的任何其他时候都要危险和不可预测,最明显的莫过于圣战恐怖主义从西非一直蔓延到南亚,而且就在英国家门口,普京在努力不懈地颠覆欧洲和平。Secondly, however much Mr Cameron hides under the bedcovers, Britain’s security and prosperity are inextricably tied to events elsewhere in the world. A nation that aspires to be a global hub cannot be indifferent to international disorder. If nothing else, it must contribute towards making the world safe for the prime minister’s holidays.其次,无论卡梅伦在床罩里藏得多么好,英国的安全和繁荣都与世界其他地区发生的事件密不可分。一个渴望成为全球中枢的国家不能对混乱的国际秩序无动于衷。最起码,它必须出力把世界变成一个安全的地方,好方便首相度假。来 /201503/365710

Smuggler is caught trying to sneak 94 iPhones into China after strapping them to his body... and customs officers noticed his strange walk.走私犯身4个苹果手机试图走私到中国A smuggler tried to sneak 94 iPhones into China by strapping and concealing them around his torso - but was foiled when customs officers noticed his weird walking posture.一名走私犯4个苹果手机绑在自己身上,试图将它们走私到中国,但是海关人员看到其奇怪的走路姿势后被发现了。Embarrassing pictures show the man standing with his trousers down as officers reveal the startling number of mobiles attached to his body.从这些尴尬的照片中可以看出,这名男子站在那里,裤子被脱下,可以看出他身上尽是手机。He was seized at Futian Port, an immigration port of entry on the border between mainland China and Hong Kong.他在福田口岸被抓获,这是中国大陆同香港之间的一处边境移民口岸。Customs officers grew suspicious after seeing a male passenger with weird walking posture, joint stiffness and muscle tension, reports the Huffington Post.海关人员看到这名男性走路姿势怪异,关节僵硬以及肌肉紧张,所以产生了怀疑,《赫芬顿邮报》报道。Smuggling under Hong Kong law, where this man was said to be caught, can warrant a seven-year prison sentence and a fine as high as m (#163;171,000).这名男子在香港一方被逮捕,在香港法律下,走私可以年刑期以及最00万美元的罚款。According to the report, so-called mobile armor is a fairly common tactic for phone smugglers.据报道,这种所谓的“手机铠甲”是手机走私者经常使用的一种手段。All of Apples iPhones are actually made in China under contract before being shipped to countries around the world -but purchasing one in the country can be a challenge.所有手机实际上都是在中国制造,然后再运到全世界,但是在中国买苹果手机却是一种挑战。Not long ago, the only way to do so was through the black market.在不久前,在中国买苹果手机只能通过黑市购买。Recently, deals can be agreed to with legitimate providers such as China Mobile but supplies of the latest models are usually limited.最近,法定供应商可以获得苹果手机的供应协议,比如中国移动公司,但是最新型手机的供应通常是有限的。And contracts and handsets are expensive compared to the devices made by Chinese manufacturers.相比于中国厂家制造的设备,苹果合同及其手机都更加的昂贵。According to the FT, an unlocked 16GB iPhone 6 is around #163;577. At around 18 per cent of the annual salary in China, its a costly buy.根据《金融时报》的报道,一个未上锁6GB大约577英镑。相当于中国人平均年工资8%,所以相当昂贵。As a result, buying new or second-hand handsets outside China and smuggling them into the country can be a lucrative business.所以从境外购买新的或者二手的手机然后偷运到中国成了一门有利可图的生意。Most of the devices in the pictures appear to be the iPhone 5S but there are also some iPhone 6 and 6 Plus models in view.图片中大部分的机型似乎都是iPhone 5S,但是也有iPhone 6 6 Plus。来 /201501/353691

Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, has warned Angela Merkel that it will be “impossiblefor Athens to service debt obligations due in the coming weeks if the EU fails to distribute any short-term financial assistance to the country.希腊总理亚历克西#8226;齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)警告安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel),如果欧盟不能向该国发放短期经济援助,雅典方面将“不可能”履行未来几周到期的偿债义务。The warning, contained in a letter sent by Mr Tsipras to the German chancellor and obtained by the Financial Times, comes amid mounting concerns Athens will struggle to make pension and wage payments at the end of this month and could run out of cash before the end of April.齐普拉斯在写给德国总理的一封信中发出这一警告;英囀?金融时报》看到了这封信。目前各方越来越担心,雅典方面本月底付养老金和工资将有难度,并可能在4月底之前耗尽现金。The letter, dated March 15, came just before Ms Merkel agreed to meet Mr Tsipras on the sidelines of an EU summit last Thursday and invited him for a one-on-one session in Berlin, scheduled for this evening.这封信的日期5日,之后不久,默克尔同意上周四在欧盟峰会间隙会晤齐普拉斯,并邀请他今晚在柏林进行一对一会谈。In the letter, Mr Tsipras warns that his government will be forced to choose between paying off loans, owed primarily to the International Monetary Fund, or continue social spending. He blames European Central Bank limits on Greece’s ability to issue short-term debt as well as eurozone bailout authoritiesrefusal to disburse any aid before Athens adopts a new round of economic reforms.齐普拉斯在信中警告,他的政府将被迫在还清贷款(主要是欠国际货币基金组IMF)的贷款)和维持社会出之间作出选择。他指责欧洲央行(ECB)限制希腊发行短期债务的能力,还指责欧元区纾困当局拒绝在雅典方面推行新一轮经济改革之前发放任何援助。“Given that Greece has no access to money markets, and also in view of the ‘spikesin our debt repayment obligations during the spring and summer#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;it ought to be clear that the ECB’s special restrictions when combined with disbursement delays would make it impossible for any government to service its debt,Mr Tsipras wrote.“鉴于希腊无法进入货币市场,鉴于我国将在春季和夏季迎来偿债义务的短期激增……应当十分明显的是,欧洲央行的特别限制加上援助发放延迟,将使任何政府都不可能偿还债务,”齐普拉斯写道。He said servicing the debts would lead to a “sharp deterioration in the aly depressed Greek social economy a prospect that I will not countenance他表示,偿还这些债务会导致“本已低迷的希腊社会经济急剧恶化——这一前景是我不堪设想的”。“With this letter, I am urging you not to allow a small cash flow issue, and a certain ‘institutional inertia to not turn into a large problem for Greece and for Europe,he wrote.“借助这封信,我敦促您不要让一个小的现金流问题,以及某种‘制度惯性’,变成希腊乃至欧洲的一个大问题,”他写道。Mr Tsipras was rebuffed in efforts to secure quick financing from either the ECB or eurozone lenders at Thursday’s Brussels meeting with Ms Merkel and a small group of other EU leaders including French President Fran#231;ois Hollande and ECB chief Mario Draghi.齐普拉斯上周四在布鲁塞尔与默克尔和其他几个欧盟领导人——包括法国总统弗朗索瓦#8226;奥朗Fran#231;ois Hollande)和欧洲央行行长马里奥#8226;德拉Mario Draghi)开会时,曾试图从欧洲央行或欧元区贷款机构争取到快速融资,但他的努力遭到挫败。In an interview, Luis de Guindos, the Spanish finance minister, said his eurozone counterparts would not sign off on any new bailout funding until a full set of approved reforms was passed and implemented by Greek authorities, a process that could take months.西班牙财长路易斯#8226;德金多斯(Luis de Guindos)在接受采访时表示,在希腊当局通过和实施一整套经批准的改革之前(这个过程可能需要几个月时间),他的欧元区同行不会放行任何新的纾困资金。Mr Tsipras’s five-page letter is particularly critical of the ECB, which he said has forbidden Greek banks from holding more short-term government debt than they did when they requested an extension of the current bail out last month a cap that has prevented Athens from relying on Treasury bills to fill its urgent cash needs, since Greek banks have become nearly the only buyer of such debt.齐普拉斯页信函对欧洲央行的批评格外尖锐,他称,在希腊各上月请求延长当前纾困时,欧洲央行禁止它们增持短期政府债券——这一上限使雅典方面不能依靠国债来满足紧迫现金需求,原因是该国的已近乎成为此类债务的唯一买家。来 /201503/365706

Paris might have been Berlin, London or Rome. Europe has something of the feel of a continent under siege. On its eastern edge, governments have been overwhelmed by the numbers arriving from Syria, Afghanistan and many troubled points beyond. The Paris atrocity, the murderous work of the self-styled Islamic State, has seen Syria’s brutal civil war transferred almost casually to the heart of one of Europe’s great cities.受到攻击的城市原本可能不是巴黎,而是柏林、伦敦或罗马。欧洲有一种整体遭到围攻的感觉。在欧洲东面,来自叙利亚、阿富汗和许多其他受难地区的难民的巨大数量,令各国政府不堪重负。从发生在巴黎的暴行——即自封的“伊斯兰国Islamic State)所犯下的杀人事件——可以看到,叙利亚的残酷内战几乎在不经意间,就已转移至欧洲最大城市之一的核心地带。The refugees making their way across the Balkans to Germany and Sweden are running from violent sectarian chaos. The murders in Paris show once again how easily this violence can reach deep into the European continent. After this year’s attacks on Charlie Hebdo and a Jewish supermarket perhaps the latest crimes should not have been a surprise. The sense of shock this weekend is no less for that.而穿过巴尔干半岛前往德国和瑞典的难民,在逃离充满暴力的派系纷争。巴黎发生的多起杀戮,再次明这种暴力向欧洲大陆纵深扩散有多么容易。在今年《查理周刊Charlie Hebdo)和一家犹太超市遭遇袭击后,对于这场最新的罪行,人们不应感到意外。然而上周末所造成的冲击丝毫不会因此减少。Most likely, there will be more such moments. The hard fact is that we live in an age of systemic disorder. As we might have learned from New York, Madrid, London and Mumbai there is no hiding place from upheavals elsewhere. In much of the Middle East the state system bequeathed a century ago by Europe’s departing imperial powers has broken down. In this part of the world, terrible shootings and bombings such as those in Paris have become almost a commonplace. Globalisation, identity politics and technology have provided the transmission mechanisms to sp the terror across borders and continents.最有可能的情形是,还会出现更多这样的时刻。一个让人不得不承认的事实是,我们生活在一个系统性动荡的时代。正如我们可能已经从纽约、马德里、伦敦和孟买的恐怖事件中学到的,在其他地方也没有能够免受动荡影响的避风港。在中东大部分地区,一个世纪以前欧洲帝国势力离开时留下的政府体制已分崩离析。在世界的这个角落,类似巴黎恐怖袭击那样的可怕击案和爆炸事件,几乎已成为一种常见现象。全球化、身份政治以及技术进步,已经为恐怖的跨境和跨洲扩散提供了传播机制。French president Hollande called the murders an act of war. They were certainly that. But this is not a war as we usually would understand it. Isis has seized territory in Iraq and Syria, but its potency lies in the fact that it is as much an idea and ideology as organisation. In Europe it wants to provoke an anti-Islamic backlash that will feed it with more recruits from indigenous Muslims. These latest murders, Isis said, were retribution for French bombing of their fighters in Iraq and Syria. That was part of it, but no one in Europe should imagine they could exempt themselves by washing their hands of the Middle East.法国总统弗朗索瓦攠朗 Hollande)称这轮杀戮是一种战争行为。它们无疑是战争行为,不过这不是我们通常理解的战争。ISIS在伊拉克和叙利亚控制了大片土地,然而它的威力却依赖于这样一个事实:它既是一个组织,也是一种思想和意识形态。在欧洲,它希望激发一种反伊斯兰的反弹,这会把更多欧洲本土穆斯林变成它的新成员。ISIS表示,最新这轮杀戮,是法国轰炸伊拉克和叙利亚的ISIS战士所应得的报应。这确实是其中部分原因。不过,欧洲不应该有人以为,通过置身中东事外,他们就可以让自己免遭恐怖袭击。The immediate demand is for answers and action. Could the plot have been uncovered; did the intelligence services miss something; how important was the complicity of French citizens mentioned by Mr Hollande? At least one of the killers carried a Syrian passport. Were others radicalised in France before being trained for this atrocity in the jihadis war against Syria’s Bashar Al Assad? Is it time for France to reset the balance between personal liberty and collective security? What about the promises after Charlie Hebdo to offer a better future to France’s Muslims?眼下,我们亟待回答多个问题并行动起来。这次恐怖袭击的阴谋原本有可能被发现么?情报机构是不是漏掉了什么?奥朗德提到的法国公民的合谋有多重要?在这些杀手中,至少有一人持有叙利亚护照。其他人是在法国转向激进主义,再在针对叙利亚巴沙尔阿萨Bashar al-Assad)的圣战中,为这次暴行受训的么?法国是不是该重新寻找个人自由与集体安全之间的平衡点了?对于在《查理周刊》事件后提出的为法国穆斯林提供更美好未来的承诺,人们该如何对待?One impulse sensibly forsworn by Mr Hollande will say it is time for Europe to throw up the barricades. Leave it to regional powers to fight it out. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, after all, have given life to Isis by incorporating the Syrian civil war into the struggle for dominance between Sunnis and Shia. Let them suffer the consequences. As for Russia, well Vladimir Putin has aly paid for its intervention with the downing over Egypt almost certainly the work of an Isis-affiliated group of a Russian civilian jet carrying more than 200 tourists.一种冲动的观点认为(奥朗德已经明智地誓言放弃这种观点),欧洲是时候建立起屏障了。把这个问题留给该地区的大国去解决。毕竟是沙特阿拉伯、土耳其以及伊朗把叙利亚内战纳入逊尼派和什叶派的统治权之争,才催生了ISIS。让他们自食苦果吧。至于俄罗斯,弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)已经为其介入付出了代价,俄罗斯一架载有00名游客的客机在埃及坠落——几乎可以肯定这是ISIS附属组织的杰作。In this respect, the Paris attacks are a gift to Europe’s xenophobes. The risk is that the far right, aly prospering by peddling anti-Muslim identity politics, succeed in drawing false connections between migration and terror. The us-versus-them politics of parties such France’s far-right National Front makes the scantiest of distinction between violent jihadis and peaceful Islam. In this twisted mindset every Muslim refugee is a potential terrorist. What should frighten Europeans is that the National Front’s Marine Le Pen is seen as a credible candidate in the contest for the French presidency in 2017.从这个角度看,巴黎恐袭是欧洲排外情绪的产物。危险在于,已经靠兜售反穆斯林的身份政治而壮大的极右翼势力,成功地将移民和恐怖主义建立了错误关联。诸如法国极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)等党派“我们是我们、他们是他们”的政治主张,对暴力的圣战分子与平和的伊斯兰教徒完全不加区分。在这种扭曲的心态下,每一个穆斯林难民都成了潜在的恐怖分子。国民阵线的马琳勒庞(Marine Le Pen)竟然被视为法017年总统大选的可靠候选人,这才应该令欧洲人感到恐惧。An opposing response will say that it is time to “double-up By permitting Isis to hold territory, the west has given it the opportunity to turn a local organisation into a global ideology. Isis can now claim the allegiance of tens of thousands of so-called foreign fighters many if not most of them from Europe and affiliates reaching across the Middle East and Maghreb to the Sahel. I was at a security conference in Beijing last month. Top of the agenda? The boost provided by Isis to Islamist extremism across Asia.一种相反的观点认为,是时候“双倍加仓”了。允许ISIS保持领地,西方赋予了该组织从地方组织转变为全球性意识形态的机会。ISIS如今可以宣称有成千上万所谓的外国战士对其效忠,而这些外国战士中,来自欧洲的战士就算不是占大多数,也着实不少,同时其附属组织已触及整个中东、马格里布(Maghreb,马格里布是历史上对北非地区阿尔及利亚、洛哥和突尼斯的统称——译者注)到萨赫勒(Sahel,非洲撒哈拉沙漠和苏丹草原地区之间一条横跨多个国家的地带——译者注)地区。我上个月在北京参加了一次安全会议。会议的首要议题?就是ISIS对遍布亚洲的伊斯兰极端主义的推动。The case for a more ruthless assault on Isis is a powerful one. Destruction of its strongholds in Iraq and Syria will not wipe it out just as al-Qaeda survived the US march into Afghanistan but you have to start somewhere. This time, though, the west must remember what it forgot after the attacks of September 11 2001. There are no military solutions.持对ISIS予以更无情打击的理由很充分。摧毁其在伊拉克和叙利亚的强大据点并不会将其消灭——就像基地组al-Qaeda)在美国进军阿富汗后仍然得以存活一样——但是你必须从某处下手。不过,这一次西方国家必须记住其0011日恐怖袭击后所忘记的事情。军事手段解决不了问题。Ending the Syrian civil war, and thus depriving Isis of its organising mission, requires a political agreement. Most probably it will be an ugly one. Almost certainly, it will require western leaders to retreat from past rhetoric. But Europeans will feel safer in their cities only when there is a settlement of sorts in Iraq and Syria.结束叙利亚内战、并以此使ISIS失去组织使命,需要一份政治协议。只不过这极可能是一份难堪的协议。几乎可以肯定,这将需要西方领导人放弃过去的言论。但是,只有当伊拉克和叙利亚的问题得以解决时,欧洲人才会在自己的城市里感觉更安全。来 /201511/410960

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