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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年05月21日 03:43:26
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These are strange and unnerving times in global financial markets, and if Thursday’s jaw-dropping move in the Swiss currency didn’t prove it, nothing will.全球金融市场会经历一些让人不知所措的异常时刻,瑞士货币汇率周四令人瞠目结舌的波动就是最好的明。It is not every day that the currency of an advanced, economically important country rises by double-digit percentages against the currencies of other such countries within mere hours. But that is what happened to the Swiss franc on Thursday. It is up 18 percent against the euro as of Thursday morning, and at one point was up 39 percent. Currency strategists were searching for any analogue in modern history for a similarly abrupt move in major Western currency and coming up empty.一个拥有重要经济地位的发达国家的货币,兑换同类国家货币的汇率,在区区几个小时之内以两位数的百分比上涨,这可不是什么每天都能见到的事。然而在周四,这种情况就发生在了瑞士法郎身上。截至周四上午,瑞士法郎兑欧元汇率上扬了18%,而且曾一度暴9%。货币策略师们正在当代历史中寻找主要西方货币陡然大幅升值的相似状况,但一无所获。The Swiss move offers interesting lessons about the oddly precarious state of the global economy, but first it’s worth working through what exactly the Swiss National Bank has done.瑞士市场的波动提供了关于全球经济脆弱状况的有趣明,但首先,我们应该弄清楚瑞士国家银Swiss National Bank)究竟做了些什么。Back during the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, fear was high that banks in countries that use the euro would go belly up. If you were a company or rich person in a country like Greece or Italy or even France or Germany, fearful that the euro could go kablooey and your local banks with it, you were sorely tempted to catch a flight to Zurich or Geneva and deposit your money in a Swiss bank. Amid a general atmosphere of global panic, the same could be said of plenty of savers outside Europe: Russians, Middle Easterners, Chinese, you name it.2011年欧债危机期间,对欧元区各国央行可能破产的担忧四起。在希腊、意大利,乃至法国或德国这样的国家,如果你是一家企业的负责人或者一位富人,担心欧元可能把当地的一同拖下水,你巴不得能跳上去苏黎世或日内瓦的航班,把钱存进一家瑞士。在全球恐慌的大环境下,可以说欧洲之外的储户也是如此:俄罗斯人、中东人、中国人,不一而足。All those people looking to park money in Switzerland, a country of only 8 million people, created incredible upward pressure on the Swiss franc. From the start of 2010 to mid-2011, the value of the franc rose 44 percent against the euro.这些人都想要把钱存到瑞士这个仅有800万人口的国家,从而为瑞士法郎构成了难以想象的升值压力。从2010年初011年中,瑞士法郎对欧元上涨4%。Think about that for a minute. It would be as if dollars in the state of Virginia (with a population similar to Switzerland) suddenly were worth 44 percent more than the dollars used in the rest of the country. Virginians would be wealthier, but it would be a catastrophe for businesses in the state. Suddenly their costs would be 44 percent higher, effectively, than that of competitors in other states. Tourism would dry up; why go to a Virginia beach when it is 44 percent more expensive than a North Carolina beach?让我们思考一下。这就好比弗吉尼亚州(人口与瑞士相当)的美元价值突然比美国其他地方高出4%。弗吉尼亚民众是更富有了,但这对于该州的企业来说却是个灾难。与其他州的竞争者相比,它们的成本突然跃升了44%。旅游业会枯竭;弗吉尼亚海滩的消费要比北卡罗来纳州的海滩高出44%,谁还会去那儿呢?That’s exactly the situation Swiss businesses faced. Swiss watchmakers, pharmaceutical firms and ski resorts were suffering mightily because a scary global economy made people want to park their money into Swiss banks.这正是瑞士企业面临的处境。那里的钟表制造商、制药企业和滑雪度假区遭受了重创,就因为可怕的全球经济让人们想要把钱存进瑞士的。The Swiss National Bank came to the rescue. After its earlier efforts to cut interest rates hadn’t done enough to dampen interest in the franc, it pulled out the big guns, and set a peg, announcing it wouldn’t allow the franc to appreciate such that one franc buys fewer than 1.2 euros. They backed it by going onto foreign exchange markets at will and buying euros as necessary to defend the peg.瑞士央行在这时挺身而出。早先下调利率的举措未能抑制对瑞士法郎的兴趣之后,它拿出了杀手锏,设定了一个汇率上限,宣布不会允许本国货币任意升值,而是要将汇率保持瑞郎士法郎兑.2欧元以下。他们到外汇市场大量买入所需要的欧元,从而守住这个上限。It worked for a long time. But now, the European Central Bank looks to be on the verge of an extensive new effort to try to pump money into the European economy to get it out of its doldrums, which is creating downward pressure on the euro. The pressure is particularly pronounced against the dollar, the benchmark of global commerce, which is rising in part because of a strong ed States economy and plans by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.在很长一段时间内,这种做法起了作用。但是现在,欧洲央行(European Central Bank)似乎即将采取大规模行动,设法为欧洲经济注入资金,使之摆脱低迷。欧洲经济的低迷正在促使欧元下行。在兑换美元——国际贸易的基准货币——的汇率方面,这种压力尤其明显。美元正在升值,这在一定程度上是因为美国经济走强,以及美联Federal Reserve)提高利率的计划。Meanwhile, Russia is a basket case, increasing the desire of Russian oligarchs to avoid exposure to a falling ruble.与此同时,俄罗斯深陷危机,从而增加了该国寡头规避因卢布不断贬值而带来的风险的意愿。All that means that the 1.2 euro peg is becoming more and more expensive to defend. And on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, led by Thomas Jordan, basically waved the white flag.这一切都意味着,坚.2的汇率上限需要付出越来越高的代价。到了本周四,由托马斯·约尔丹(Thomas Jordan)所领导的瑞士央行基本举了白旗。In a news release, the bank said that it believed the franc was less overvalued now than it had been when the policy started, so no more peg. “Recently, divergences between the monetary policies of the major currency areas have increased significantly a trend that is likely to become even more pronounced,the announcement said.央行在一则新闻稿中表示,它认为目前瑞士法郎估值过高的程度,比开始实施这项政策时要低,所以无需再坚守汇率上限。“最近,各大货币区在货币政策上的差异已显著增加——这一趋势很可能会更加明显,”文中称。In other words, this situation is only going to get worse, which means we would be throwing Swiss francs down a money pit if we tried to continue defending the 1.2 currency peg.换而言之,情况只会越来越糟,这意味着,如果我们试图继续坚.2的汇率上限,就相当于把瑞士法郎往无底洞里扔。The central bank simultaneously cut interest rates, hoping to offset some of the damage in foreign exchange markets. It didn’t work. The Swiss franc-to-euro exchange rate moved back to where it was before the peg was introduced. Shares of major Swiss companies like Nestle plummeted. Exporters in Switzerland (and people thinking of traveling there, such as the global elite soon heading to Davos for the World Economic Forum) are in for serious sticker shock.瑞士央行在同一时间降息,希望能冲抵对外汇市场的一些损害。但是没用。瑞士法郎兑欧元的汇率回到了设定这一上限之前的水平。雀Nestle)等瑞士大公司的股价暴跌。瑞士的出口商(以及考虑前往该国的人们,比如很快将奔赴达沃斯出席世界经济论坛[World Economic Forum]的全球精英)会面临严重的“价签休克”。One can sympathize with the Swiss National Bank as it defended its peg in the face of mounting potential losses. But the bigger lesson here is this: The six years and counting of aggressive monetary activism out of major central banks like the Fed and E.C.B. may have rescued the global economy over and over. But it has also created a range of spillovers far beyond ed States and European borders that people all around the world will be grappling with for a long time to come.在面对日益严重的潜在损失时,瑞士央行坚守了它的汇率上限,这一点值得同情。不过,这里有个更大的教训:美联储和欧洲央行等各大央行为期六年而且仍在继续的积极货币政策,或许是多次拯救了全球经济,但是,它所产生的一系列后果,远远超出了美国和欧洲的范畴,而世界各地的人们将需要花很长时间来消化。来 /201501/355028

VLADIVOSTOK -- Russia is seldom thought of as an Asia-Pacific country. Yet it is one -- thanks to its Far East. The Russian Far East is a huge area of northeastern Eurasia stretching from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean. Allowing Russia direct access to the Asia-Pacific region, the RFE makes it a truly transcontinental nation, the only other such a country being the U.S.符拉迪沃斯托克—俄罗斯很少被认为是一个亚太国家,尽管它的确属于亚太地区——多亏了它的远东地区。俄远东地区是亚欧大陆东北部的一大片区域,从贝加尔湖延伸到太平洋,使得俄罗斯名副其实的属于亚太地区。远东地区使俄罗斯成为一个横跨大陆的国家,除此之外唯一一个横跨大陆的国家是美囀?The RFE contains all kinds of natural treasures -- oil and natural gas, iron ore and copper, diamonds and gold, pristine fresh water (Lake Baikal alone has 20 percent of the worlds unfrozen surface freshwater), timber and fish stocks (for example, the Sea of Okhotsk is one of the most biologically productive areas of the world ocean).远东地区蕴含着丰富多样的资源——石油、天然气、铁矿石、铜、钻石、黄金、以及纯净的淡水(仅仅贝加尔湖就拥有世界上20%的融化的地表淡水)、木材、鱼类资源(例如,鄂霍次克海是世界海洋中生物生产力最强的地区)The entire vastness of the RFE contains just over 6 million residents. Being remote from, and having tenuous transportation links to, the countrys European core, suffering from underdevelopment and the lack of infrastructure, the RFE is a source of constant concern for Moscow. Ever since Russia acquired these territories, there have been recurring worries that they are at the risk of being lost due to external aggression, foreign encroachment, internal separatism -- or a combination of the three.偌大的远东地区却仅仅00多万居民。远东地区距离俄罗斯欧洲核心地区遥远,交通连接薄弱,饱受发展滞后和基础设施匮乏之苦,远东地区成了莫斯科一直以来的头痛之源。自从获得这部分领土之后,俄罗斯就就一直担心它会因为外部侵略、外国侵占、内部分裂或者三者的综合而失去远东地区。Chinas Looming Shadow中国逼近的阴影The RFE has historically had an ambivalent relationship with its giant neighbor, China. It is seen as an indispensable economic partner. Yet China is simultaneously a source of threat. After all, the southern part of what is now the Russian Far East used to be under the Qings nominal sovereignty until the second half of the 19th century. Despite the fact that, at the official level, the border issue between Moscow and Beijing is fully settled by legal treaties, there are lingering concerns in Russia that China might in the future reclaim the land. This is not helped by the well-known sentiments of many in China who still see the 19th-century border treaties with the Russian Empire as ;unfair; and count them as part of ;the century of humiliation.;俄罗斯远东地区在历史上与它的强大的中国邻居曾有过一段喜忧参半的时期。中国被俄视为必不可少的经济伙伴,尽管中国同时也是一个危险的根源。不过毕竟在19世纪后半叶以前,远东地区的南部地区还是处于清朝的主权管辖范围的。尽管莫斯科与北京关于边界问题已经在官方层面上通过法律条文完全解决了,但是俄罗斯一直有人在担心中国会在不远的将来会重新索要回这片土地。许多中国人都认9世纪与沙皇俄国签订的条约是“不平等”的,并且认为这些条约是“屈辱的世纪”的一部分,这种普遍的观点又会助长俄罗斯的担忧。For the time being, Moscow and Beijing are ;strategic partners,; with the relationship increasingly resembling a quasi-alliance. One major reason China needs a strong bond with Russia lies in the Russian Far East.目前莫斯科与北京是“战略合作伙伴”,并且二者的关系正逐步向准联盟靠近。中国需要同俄罗斯维持紧密关系的一个重要原因就是远东地区。First, Beijing wants to have a secure and peaceful northern border with Russia, so that it can concentrate its military resources and planning on other strategic theaters, above all in the Western Pacific. The memories of confrontation with the Soviet Union, when China had to expend enormous efforts on reinforcing its frontiers with a hostile neighbor to the north, have not yet faded away.首先,北京想同俄罗斯维持一个稳定和平的北方边界,这样它就可以集中他的军事资源应对其他的战略地区,主要是西太平洋地区。与前苏联的对抗,中国不得不花费巨大的精力来加强他同北方敌人的边界(防卫力量),而中国对此还记忆犹新。Second, Chinas voracious economy needs the RFEs natural resources, which makes sense not only economically but also, at least as much, strategically. There are signs that China is beginning to see Eastern Russia as an important ;strategic rear area;, a proximate overland supplier of a range of vital primary commodities. This is directly related to Chinas intensifying contest with the U.S. for primacy in the Asia-Pacific. Beijing is increasingly worried that, if this rivalry comes to a head, Washington may use its trump card -- launching a naval blockade of the sea lanes through which China receives most of its imported primary products.The growing dependence on imported raw materials and rising concerns about the fraught relations with the U.S., and its Indo-Pacific allies, seem to have resulted in Beijings attaching much greater priority to the RFE than was the case five or 10 years ago.第二中国经济增长的巨大需求需要俄罗斯远东地区的自然资源,这在经济和至少战略上都说得通。有迹象表明中国开始将俄罗斯远东地区视作重要的后方战略区域;一个多样且重要的初级产品(未经加工或因销售习惯而略作加工的产品)的内陆直接供应地。这直接和中国强化同美国在亚太地区的主导权的竞争有关。北京愈来越担忧如果这场竞争激化,华盛顿可能使用其杀手锏-对中国海上通道进行封锁。中国大多数初级产品进口依赖于海上通道。对原材料进口不断加强的的独立性和对对美关系极其印度洋盟友的担忧似乎已经使北京,相0年以来,将俄罗斯远东地区视作重要目标Until recently, the Chinese economic presence in the RFE was quite limited. The number of Chinese migrants in the RFE has also been modest -- no more than 300,000 -- most of them as sojourners rather than permanent residents. There are, however, indications that Chinas footprint in the RFE is about to grow. Chinas interest in the RFE has coincided with Moscows hour of need. Although just a few years ago the Kremlin was reluctant to allow the Chinese direct access to the most valuable industries of the Far East, it had to change its mind when faced with Western isolation over Ukraine and now having few alternatives but China. Moving, or rather being pushed, closer to China amidst confrontation with the West, Moscow has lifted formal and informal restrictions on Chinese investments that existed hitherto and begun to actively court Chinese capitals.直到最近,中国在远东地区的经济存在还很有限。远东地区中国移民的数量也不是很多—不超过300000—大部分都只是暂住居民而不是永久居民。然而有迹象表明中国在远东地区的存在感将要加强,中国在远东地区的利益正好与莫斯科的需求一致。尽管几年前克里姆林宫还是不情愿中国直接插手远东地区最有价值的产业,但是现在俄由于乌克兰问题而受到西方的孤立,它不得不改变想法了,并且除了中国它也没有多少备选的国家。莫斯科在于西方的对抗中,更接近或者说被迫接近中国,它已经放宽了目前对中国投资的正式或非正式的限制,并且开始积极寻求中方的投资。The main thrust has been in the hydrocarbon sector, epitomized by the gargantuan 400 billion, 30-year contract signed in May 2014 by Gazprom and CNPC to supply the RFEs gas to China. In other landmark developments, focused on eastern Russia, Moscow agreed to sell Chinese companies stakes in the countrys most lucrative oil field and the worlds third biggest copper field.最主要的推动力是在油气方面,集中体现在2014月俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)与中国石油天然气公司(CNPC)签订的远东地区向中国提供天然气的协议,总额达极其庞大的4000亿美元,时间长达30年。其他具有里程碑意义的进展方面,集中在俄东部地区,莫斯科同意出售给中方公司俄罗斯最赚钱的油田和世界上第三大铜矿的股票。Recent Russo-Chinese deals in the RFE have not been limited to resource-extraction industries. In 2014, Russian and Chinese government-affiliated companies announced they would jointly develop Zarubino port, strategically located in the south of the RFE at the junction of Russian, North Korean and Chinese borders. The port at Zarubino will give China direct access to the Sea of Japan, which it has long coveted. The port, with the expected throughput capacity of 100 million tons, will mostly handle Chinese cargoes. Chinese companies have also become the principal investors in a large-scale integrated casino resort near Vladivostok, which is slated to open in 2015 and aims to service mostly visitors from China.最近中俄在远东地区的贸易不再仅限于资源开采业014年中俄政府的附属公司宣布他们将共同开发扎鲁比诺港,这个港口位于远东地区南部,是中朝俄三国交界的地方,极具战略意义。中国可以通过位于扎鲁比诺的港口直接进入日本海,这时中国觊觎已久的。这个港口,预期有一亿吨的吞吐量,将主要装卸中国的货物。中国企业也是一个位于符拉迪沃斯托克附近的大兴综合性度假村的主要投资者,该度假村预定015年开业并且务对象主要是中国游客。Speaking at Saint Petersburgs Economic Forum in May 2014, Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao called for the linking up of the RFE with northeast China in order to ;turn the two into a big market -- a new economic bloc in Asia.; In dealing with the RFE, Beijing can deploy its giant state-owned corporations, which boast some of the deepest pockets in the world and are driven by the governments strategic calculations as much as by purely commercial considerations. Compared to Western companies with shareholder responsibility, they can make hefty investments with much longer planning horizons and without expecting short-term returns. This gives China a significant advantage in the RFE, where business projects often require massive financial outlays, are accompanied with significant risks, and do not promise quick profits.014月的圣彼得堡经济论坛上,中国国家副主席李源潮发表讲话并呼吁加强远东地区与中国东北部地区的衔接,为了“是这两个地区合成为一个大市场——一个亚洲的新的经济联盟”。在对待远东地区方面,北京可以部署他的庞大的国有企业,其中一些是世界上经济实力最雄厚的企业,国企以此为傲。这些企业是为了国家战略计划务并且纯粹的为了追求经济利益。和西方股份制的公司相比,它们可以用更加长远的目光进行大型的投资,并且不要求短期的回报,这使得中国在远东地区有了一个极其重要的优势。(因为)远东地区的投资经常是需要数额庞大的出并且伴随着明显的风险,而这些投资也不一定能获得快速的收益。The RFE is one piece in Chinas long-term geopolitical game aimed at creating zones of influence along its continental frontiers in Eurasia. Two other major areas, where Beijing pursues similar goals of securing its borders, getting preferential access to rich natural resources, and probably gaining there a degree of political control in the future, are continental Southeast Asia and Central Asia. Incidentally, large parts of these regions, like the RFE, were in the past under Chinas sovereignty or suzerainty. Another common feature of Beijings policy toward the ;rear areas; is to bind them up with the neighboring regions of China: southwestern China (especially Yunnan province) for Southeast Asia, western China (Xinjiang) for Central Asia, and northeastern China (Heilongjiang) for the RFE.远东地区是中国长远的地缘政治策略的一部分,目的是为了在亚欧大陆上创造一个沿着中国大陆边界的势力范围。另外两个主要的地区是东南亚和中亚,在这些地方中国想达到类似的目的,即保卫边疆,获得对丰富得然资源的优先开采权,并且将来可能对这些地方拥有一定程度上的政治控制。顺便说一下,在过去,中国对这些地方都曾经拥有主权或宗主权。北京对于他的“后方”地区的政策的一个共同的特点是把这些地区同他们相邻的地区捆绑在一块:中国西南部(尤其是云南省)和东南亚,中国西部(新疆)和中亚,中国东北部(黑龙江)和远东地区。Despite its seeming enthusiasm about the growing intimacy with Beijing, Moscow is aware of the costs and risks of embracing China. Chinas privileged access to the RFE could lead to Chinese economic dominion which would not only exclude other foreign competitors but can also begin to squeeze Russian companies out of the RFE. Economic sinicization may, sooner or later, set the stage for the erosion of sovereign control尽管莫斯科和中国好像打得火热,它也清楚向中国靠近的代价。中国在远东地区的特权可能会确立中国在该地区经济上的统治地位。这不仅会赶走其他国家的竞争者也会把俄罗斯的企业从远东地区排挤出去。经济上的中国化,迟早都会为弱化(俄罗斯在该地区的)主权控制打好基础。There is a probability that Chinas exclusive economic penetration of the RFE would eventually be followed by a rising degree of geopolitical control, ultimately jeopardizing Russian sovereignty and threatening to turn the RFE into not just a raw material appendix but also a military-strategic base for China in the North Pacific, especially if Moscow enters a full-fledged alliance with Beijing. The RFE could become exactly what some Chinese prefer to call it -- ;Outer Manchuria,; a territory where Russian sovereignty is getting increasingly tenuous and where matters are decided in Beijing and Harbin rather than Moscow or Vladivostok.中国在远东地区的排他性的经济渗透很有可能最终会导致一个(对该地区)更高程度的地缘政治控制,到最后会危机俄罗斯的主权,并且有把远东地区不仅当做他的原材料提供地而且还是一个太平洋北部的的中国的军事基地的威胁,尤其是如果俄罗斯成了中国的一个全面的盟友。远东地区有可能真的成为一些中国人称呼它的那样—“外满洲里”,在该地区俄罗斯的控制力正在减弱并且(关于它的)重大事项是由北京和哈尔滨决定而不是莫斯科和符拉迪沃斯托克。Some security experts in Russia even discuss a scenario in which China moves to annex the RFE by a surprise attack. This is not to say that such an invasion is imminent or likely. However, it cannot be ruled out, if Russia becomes too weak -- particularly if it descends into chaos due to a severe political or economic crisis. If China tries to grab the RFE, this may draw in other players Would the U.S. pre-emptively occupy Chukotka, Magadan, Kamchatka and the Arctic shore of Yakutia before Chinese enter these territories? And would Japan, in turn, take control of Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands?俄罗斯的一些安全部门专家甚至讨论了一种情景——中国通过突袭来夺取远东地区。这并不是说这种侵略即将发生或者有可能发生。但是如果俄罗斯变得很薄弱——尤其是当它由于一些政治或者经济危机而突然陷入混乱的时候,并不排除有这种可胀?如果中国夺取远东地区,这可能会招来其他国家。美国会先发制人的抢在中国前面占领楚科奇,勘察加,马加丹和雅库特的北极海岸吗?并且日本会随后占领库页岛和千岛群岛吗?The ed States and the Russian Far East美国和俄罗斯远东地区Sarah Palin may not have been too far from the truth when she said that she could see Russia from her backyard. In fact, Alaskas Little Diomede Island sits just over two miles from Russias Big Diomede Island in the middle of the Bering Strait.Sarah Palin说她在她的后院里能够看见俄罗斯,这可能真不是在说谎。实际上,阿拉斯加的小代奥米德岛仅仅距离俄罗斯的白令海峡中心的大代奥米德岛两英里开外。The RFEs may not at present have a major economic importance for the U.S., as America has its own abundant supply of many of the natural resources the RFE has to offer. However, from a geopolitical perspective, the RFEs significance for the U.S. is only growing, as Sino-American rivalry in the Asia-Pacific shows no signs of abatement.现在远东地区对美国来说可能并没有重要的经济价值,因为许多远东地区能够提供的自然资源美国都有他自己的充足的来源。然而从地缘角度上看,远东地区对于美国的重要性正在增加,因为中美在亚太地区的对抗丝毫没有减弱的迹象;The greater involvement of Asias developed economies, such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore, would help offset Chinas rising economic influence in the RFE and contribute to a more stable equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific.;“亚洲发达经济体,像是日本、韩囀?新加坡(在远东地区的)更多的参与,会帮助抵消中国在远东地区的逐渐增加的经济影响,并且有助于亚太地区的更加稳定的(势力)平衡”As previously noted, China seeks to secure ;rear areas; along its continental periphery -- in mainland Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the RFE. Control over them would greatly expand Beijings sway in Eurasia and make it feel more confident vis-à-vis Washington. Of the three mentioned areas, the RFE carries an added significance because of its adjacency to North America as well as fronting the ever more significant Arctic. The higher the level of Chinese penetration of the RFE, the more risks it poses potentially for the U.S.正如之前提到过的,中国试图把它的“后方”同其相邻地区(东南亚大陆、中亚和远东地区)捆绑在一块,对这些地区的控制会大大扩大北京在亚欧大陆的影响并且使北京在与华盛顿的角力中更加自信。在上面提到的三个地区中,远东地区更加重要,因为它与美国相邻并且正对着一直以来极具战略意义的北冰洋。中国对远东地区的渗透越深入,对美国的威胁就越大。American interest in the fate of the RFE would not be without historical precedent: it was partly thanks to the U.S. diplomatic intervention that the Russian Far East remained Russian, when in the early 1920s Washington successfully pressed Japan, Americas main geopolitical opponent at the time, to pull out its troops from the region.美国对于远东地区命运的关注并不是没有先例:这一定程度上多亏0世纪20年代美国政治上的干预,成功迫使日本撤回了在该地区的军队,使俄罗斯远东地区仍属于俄罗斯,这时候日本还是美国主要的地缘政治上的对手。The goal of the U.S. should not be to keep China out of the RFE, for it is neither possible nor desirable. Rather, it should work toward enabling the RFE to integrate with the Asia-Pacific economies, so that China does not become the predominant player. Russia would definitely welcome such a strategy, as it fully corresponds with its own strong interest in having economic alternatives to China. Moreover, Russians are aware that China will not provide the RFE with what it needs, no less than cash, advanced technologies and expertise. This is precisely where America and other developed economies retain a remarkable edge over China.美国的目标不应该是把中国从远东地区的排挤出去,因为这不可能也是不可取的。相反,美国要确保使远东地区整合到亚太经济体中,这样中国对于远东地区就不能占领导地为了。俄罗斯肯定会对这个战略表示欢迎,因为这正好满足它的强烈需求——找到俄罗斯在经济方面中国的替代者。并且俄罗斯知道中国提供不了远东地区需要的东西——不仅仅是投资,还有先进的技术和专业知识。在这些方面美国和其他发达经济体相比与中国拥有很大的优势Of course, the Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia now make it difficult for the U.S. to invest in the RFE. However, Washington would be well-advised to at least let the Asians do business with the RFE rather than pressuring them into joining Western anti-Russia sanctions. The greater involvement of Asias developed economies, such as Japan, South Korea and Singapore, would help offset Chinas rising economic influence in the RFE and contribute to a more stable equilibrium in the Asia-Pacific.当然,美国因为乌克兰问题而对俄罗斯的制裁使得它很难向远东地区投资。然而,华盛顿也会被建议至少要让亚洲国家在远东地区贸易而不是迫使他们加入西方的反俄制裁中来。亚洲的发达经济体,像是日本、韩囀?新加坡,在远东地区的更多的参与,会有助于抵消中国对于远东地区逐渐增长的经济影响同时也有助于建立亚太地区更加稳定的平衡。Artyom Lukin:Professor Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, RussiaArtyom Lukin:俄罗斯符拉迪沃斯托克的远东联邦大学教授。来 /201501/355822

  

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  FRANKFURT It will shut down a city for two days, cost hundreds of millions of dollars and oblige 20 of the world’s top leaders to make long journeys to the east coast of Australia. So it would be a bit of a letdown if the Group of 20 summit meeting in Brisbane on Saturday and Sunday failed to accomplish very much.法兰克福——它让一座城市停止运转两天,它耗费的资金达数亿美元,此外,它还迫使20位国家元首不远万里来到澳大利亚东海岸。因此,如果本周末在布里斯班召开0国集团(Group of 20,简称G20)峰会不能取得多大成就,那可有点让人扫兴。Expectations are that the gathering will be a disappointment. Past summit meetings have fallen short of their goals, and the latest meeting will take place when collegiality among leaders is at a low ebb, strained by conflict in Ukraine, territorial disputes in Asia and war in the Middle East.不过外界预测,这次峰会将以失望告终。以往的G20峰会均未能达成目标,而本届会议召开之际,各国领导人的关系正处于低潮,造成他们关系紧张的因素包括,乌克兰冲突、亚洲领土争议,以及中东的战争。Failure of the G-20 meeting would be more than just a diplomatic setback for the countries involved, which include the ed States, China, Russia, Japan, Germany and France. If they fail to coordinate their economic policies the forum’s primary goal the leaders will squander an opportunity to make the global economy grow faster and improve the living standards of millions of people, economists say.如果本届G20峰会失败,将不光是与会各国在外交上的一次挫折。参会的成员国包括美囀?中囀?俄罗斯、日本、德国和法国等。经济学家们表示,如果无法协调各国的经济政策——这是峰会的主要目标——这些领导人将浪费一个让全球经济更快增长并改善无数人生活水平的机会。John P. Lipsky, former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, has said that the Brisbane summit meeting is a make-or-break moment for the G-20. If the leaders fail to achieve anything concrete, or fail to follow up later, it will raise questions about whether they are capable of working together in service of global prosperity, Mr. Lipsky told an audience in Melbourne this year. During a recent telephone interview, he did not sound optimistic.国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund,简称IMF)前第一副总裁约翰·P·利普斯基(John P. Lipsky)称,此次布里斯班峰会对于G20是一次成败攸关的机会。他今年在墨尔本发表演讲时曾表示,如果G20的领导人无法达成任何实质性成果,或者未能在会后有效跟进,将会引发对他们能否共同务于全球繁荣的质疑。在最近的电话采访中,他似乎并不乐观。“In the way of these summits, agreements will be announced on all the principal agenda items,Mr. Lipsky said by phone from Washington. “What remains to be seen is whether the specifics will be sufficiently credible and whether they will receive strong enough political backing by the G-20 leaders to make them politically convincing as well.”“按照峰会的安排,各国将宣布就各项主要议程达成共识,”利普斯基在华盛顿通过电话表示。“仍需拭目以待的是,协议的具体内容是否足够可信?它们能否得0国领导人足够的政治持,从而在政治上同样令人信?”The G-20 nations held their first summit meeting in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, when the world was in danger of falling into economic depression.首届G20峰会召开008年金融危机最严重的时期。当时,全球正面临着陷入经济衰退的危险。Initially, the leaders, including those from developing countries like Brazil and India that had been excluded from the Group of 7 summit meetings focused on creating a financial system less vulnerable to the kind of crisis that was then raging. Later, a more ambitious goal evolved coordinating economic policies with the aim of lifting world growth.起初,G20的领导人只是想打造一个不那么容易受到当时正在肆虐的危机影响的金融体系。后来,他们有了一个更宏伟的目标——协调经济政策,促进全球增长。G20包括了一些七国集Group of 7)之外的发展中国家,如巴西和印度。World leaders would work together to remove the roadblocks to economic progress, including corruption, trade restrictions and regulations that discourage hiring and firing. Countries would spend more on research and development, create more equitable tax systems, and invest in public infrastructure like transit systems.各国领导人决心共同扫除经济发展的障碍,包括腐败、贸易限制措施,以及阻碍劳动力市场发展的监管规定。他们打算在研发领域投入更多资金,建立更加公平合理的税收体系,并且投资运输系统等公共基础设施。The stakes were big. In 2010, the I.M.F. estimated that if the 20 leaders could follow through on their commitments, global growth would have been 2.5 percentage points higher. The extra economic output would be worth .5 trillion, the I.M.F. said, while 30 million new jobs would be created and 33 million people would escape poverty.它的意义非同小可010年,IMF估计,如0国领导人能够贯彻他们的承诺,全球增长本来可以高出2.5个百分点。IMF称,这意味着增加1.5万亿美元(约万亿元人民币)的经济产出,与此同时,还可以新000万个就业岗位,并300万人摆脱贫困。The I.M.F. also sketched out a worst-case scenario in which members of the G-20 did not follow through on their promises and growth missed forecasts. The difference between the best-case and worst-case scenarios was trillion in output and 52 million jobs.IMF也预计了最糟糕的情形,0国领导人没有履行承诺,增长低于预期。它与最好情形的差距万亿美元的经济产出,以及5200万个就业岗位。In fact, it was the worst-case scenario that proved to be the more accurate prediction. If anything, Mr. Lipsky said, it was too optimistic.事实明,最糟的情形成了更为准确的推断。利普斯基表示,甚至可以说这种看法还是过于乐观。Strictly speaking, the G-20 is not a forum to achieve rapprochement with Russia over Ukraine or adjudicate conflicting claims to waters in the South China Sea. The G-20 is supposed to be about economics and finance. The ed Nations is supposed to be responsible for geopolitical issues.严格来讲,G20并不是一个用来在乌克兰问题上与俄罗斯恢复友好关系,或者对多国在南海水域存在冲突的主张做出裁定的论坛。G20的关注点应该是经济和金融。联合国才应该对地缘政治问题负责。But heightened tensions will inevitably affect the mood in the Brisbane convention center, where the leaders, 4,000 delegates and an estimated 3,000 media representatives will gather. Security precautions will be even more intense than usual because of conflict in Syria and Iraq and heightened fear of terrorism. A public holiday has been declared in Brisbane for Friday.但是,升级的紧张氛围将不可避免地对布里斯班会议中心的情绪造成影响。届时,20国领导人000名代表和大约3000名媒体人士将在这里齐聚一堂。由于发生在叙利亚和伊拉克的冲突,以及人们对恐怖主义的担忧加剧,此次会议的安全防范会比以往更加严格。周五,布里斯班将进行公休。The government of Australia will spend 400 million Australian dollars, or about 0 million, hosting the event, according to local press reports. That figure does not include what the G-20 leaders and their entourages will spend during the meeting.据当地媒体报道,澳大利亚政府将斥亿澳元(约合3.5亿美元)来举办这次活动。这个数目还不包括G20领导人和他们的随从人员在会议期间的开销。The summit meeting is the culmination of intense preparation by officials below the rank of head of state. In September, central bank governors and finance ministers from the G-20 countries met in Cairns, farther up Australia’s eastern coast, and agreed to a range of measures designed to add 1.8 percent to global growth by 2018. This included more investment in public works and measures to combat tax evasion.峰会召开之前,国家元首以下各个级别的官员进行了紧锣密鼓的筹备工作月,G20成员国的央行行长和财政部长在位于澳大利亚东海岸更北面的凯恩斯会面,就旨在018年将全球经济增长提升1.8个百分点的一系列举措达成了共识。其中包括对公共工程进行更多投资,以及一些打击逃税行为的措斀?But such high-minded policy declarations often prove to be inconsistent with the domestic politics of individual members. Germany, for example, has been reluctant to spend more fixing roads and bridges, even though the government has a budget surplus and can borrow money on international financial markets at interest rates close to zero. Cautious German voters would rather save than invest in, say, their country’s overcrowded public universities.然而,事实明,这些雄心勃勃的政策声明往往与单个成员国的国内政策相左。例如,德国就一直不愿意在修缮路桥方面增加开,尽管政府预算存在盈余,而且还能以接近零利率的水平从国际金融市场借贷。谨慎的德国选民宁愿把钱存起来,也不愿意对诸如过度拥挤的公立大学之类的领域进行投资。Even under the best of circumstances, the G-20 is an unwieldy group. Unlike the G-7, whose members are all wealthy democracies, the G-20 includes authoritarian countries like China and poor countries like India. But is it all just a waste of time and money?即便在最佳状态下,G20仍然是个运转不灵的组织。与成员均为富裕民主国家的G7不同,G20包括中国这样的威权国家和印度这样的贫穷国家。那么,G20是否只是在浪费时间和金钱呢?The G-20 has arguably had a significant impact in addressing one pressing global issue: the fragility of the financial system. G-20 support has been crucial in addressing the problem of banks that are too big to fail, an underlying cause of the financial crisis that brought the world leaders to Washington in 2008 for the first summit meeting. Another likely outcome of the Brisbane gathering will be to endorse rules that further strengthen banksability to absorb losses.在处理一个紧迫的国际议题方面,G20可以说是产生了巨大影响。这个议题就是金融体系的脆弱性。G20的持对于应对那些“大到不能倒”的的问题十分重要,而此类问题就是这轮金融危机的潜在诱因。由于这场危机,各国领导008年在华盛顿召开了首次G20峰会。布里斯班会议另一项可能的成果是,让各国承诺持进一步加强承担损失能力的规章。“Has the G-20 done enough to support a vision of well-functioning, integrated financial markets? I would say no,said Nicolas Véron, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a research organization in Brussels. But he said the progress on bank regulation “has been useful.”“G20是否已经为持一个运转良奀?完整统一的金融市场做出了足够努力?我认为没有,”在位于布鲁塞尔的布勒哲尔国际经济研究所(Bruegel)任高级研究员的尼古拉斯·韦Nicolas Véron)说。但是他表示,监管方面的进展“起到了作用”。Moreover, he and others pointed out, there is something to be said for getting leaders together in one room where they have a chance to take each other’s measure, where they must deal with each other as mortal human beings.此外,他和其他一些人还指出,让各国领导人共聚一堂是有好处的:他们必须作为普通人与彼此打交道,有了机会来增进了解。“Maybe there are too many people attending and too much taxpayersmoney spent,Mr. Véron said. “But the fact that we have these meetings to discuss the world economy at the highest level with the most important leaders is useful.”“或许参与者过多,也花了纳税人太多的钱,”韦龙说。“但是,我们召开这些会议,与最重要的领导人一起在最高层面讨论世界经济,还是有用的。”来 /201411/342584

  21st Century Fox this afternoon announced that it has withdrawn its billion takeover offer for Time Warner , instead launching a billion stock buyback. Seems that Rupert Murdoch wasn’t too pleased with how his company’s stock price has slumped since the deal was first announced, while Time Warner’s shares had climbed.21世纪福克斯(21st Century Fox)周二宣布,公司已撤回对时代华纳(Time Warner50亿美元的收购要约,取而代之的是一0亿美元的股票回购计划。在收购提案宣布伊始1世纪福克斯的股票曾大跌,而时代华纳的股票则应声上涨,看起来默多克对这个结果不太满意。Three immediate thoughts:我马上想到了三点. This is not the end1. 好戏应该还在后面People like Rupert Murdoch do not base massive strategic decisions on short-term stock fluctuations. There is nothing in Fox’s statement that precludes Murdoch from making a future bid, at whatever price. Don’t be surprised if this is just a negotiation ploy.像默多克这样的人物不会仅凭短期股票波动来制定公司的重大战略方针。至于在未来会不会再次提出收购要约或以什么样的价格收购,福克斯在声明中只字未提。要说这次的事只是一种谈判策略,也没什么好大惊小怪的. Time Warner must be spooked2. 时代华纳想必是坐卧不宁Time Warner shares are cratering in the aftermarket, down nearly 12% as of this writing to just per share. That’s nearly billion in market cap. It’s still above the or so that it was trading at prior to the Fox bid leaking, but this is a giant message to the Time Warner board that investors were bidding up based on the takeover offer, not the underlying story. Fox stock, for what it’s worth, is going in the opposite direction up more than 8% on the news.在福克斯撤回收购要约之后,时代华纳的股价狂跌,在本文撰写时跌了近12%,至每股5美元,相当于0亿美元的市值蒸发,但这一价格仍高于收购消息泄露之前时代华1美元的交易价。然而,这对时代华纳董事会来说却是一个异常沉重的消息:投资者纷纷抢筹的原因在于公司要被默多克收购,而不是公司本身有多么吸引人。不管怎么样,新闻一出,福克斯股票反其道而行之,涨幅超过%. He can’t lose3. 杰夫o布克斯稳赚不赔If Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes really is playing poker with Rupert Murdoch, he is in a pretty sweet position. After all, who else can get snookered at the table and walk away with nearly million?如果时代华纳首席执行官杰夫o布克斯真的愿与默多克较劲的话,那么局势对他来说还是相当有利的。毕竟,就算输了,他还能拿到,000万美元的分手费 /201408/318931

  

  

  Three people were injured and 27 remain missing after a landslide buried 22 residential and industrial buildings in an industrial park in south China Sunday.周日20日),中国南方城市深圳市发生山体滑坡,导致一个工业园区内多达22幢楼房被掩埋人受伤,27人下落不明。A nearby section of the West-to-East natural gas pipeline exploded after the landslide struck the Hengtaiyu industrial park at around 11:40 a.m., causing more than 100,000 square meters of debris as of 7 p.m. The park is located in the Guangming New District in northwestern Shenzhen, Guangdong Province.上午110分许,广东深圳市光明新区恒泰裕工业园发生山体滑坡,附近西气东输管道发生爆炸。截至下点,现场塌方面积0多万平方米。A clip on microblog Sina Weibo shows powerful mud rocking the site with roaring sounds. A resident living about four kilometers away from the site told Xinhua that he heard ;a loud explosion; at around noon. ;It must be a big accident, as I could hear the sound from so far away.;新浪微上的一段视频片段显示了事发现场滑坡的场景,并伴随着强大的地动山摇般的咆哮声。一位住在离现场四公里处的居民告诉新华社记者,约中午时分他听到了“大爆炸”的声音。“这一定是非常大的事故,因为距离这么远我都听到了声响。”An employee with the Liuxu Technology Co. in the park said power supply in the company suddenly went down at around noon. ;I saw red earth and mud running towards the company building,; he said. ;Fortunately, our building was not hit, and all people in our company were safely evacuated.;工业园内柳絮科技有限公司的一名员工说,中午突然断电了。“我看到了山体崩溃,红色的泥土朝着公司的大楼方向涌来。”他说。“幸运的是,我们的大楼没有被击中,所有员工都安全地撤离了。”He said the landslide first crushed into a fish pond before burying buildings in the park, with water splashing up to three stories high. ;Without the ponds buffer, there would be more damage,; he said.他补充说道,这次泥土滑下来,多亏附近有个大鱼塘,水被泥土激荡起两三层楼高,起了缓冲作用,随后才掩埋了其它建筑物。要不然肯定有更多损失和伤亡。A woman surnamed Hu told the local Shenzhen Evening News that she saw her father engulfed by earth in his own truck. The family make a living by recycling hardware waste. ;Its been hours after he was buried, and we are quite worried,; Hu said.一位姓胡的女子告诉当地的深圳晚报,她看到她父亲在自己的卡车里被泥土吞没了。这家人靠回收五金废品为生。“他已经被掩埋了几个小时了,我们都非常担心。”她说。Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have ordered immediate rescue efforts following the disaster.中国国家主席习近平和立即作出重要指示,要求开展抢险救援。Xi ordered Guangdong and Shenzhen authorities to do everything possible to minimize casualties, treat the injured and comfort the family members of the victims. He said scientific rescue efforts are needed to prevent further damages.习近平要求广东省、深圳市迅速组织力量,尽最大努力减少人员伤亡,做好伤员救治、伤亡人员家属安抚等善后工作。注意科学施救,防止发生次生灾害。Li urged the ministry of land and resources and other central authorities to send officials to help the local government in its rescue efforts. He ordered investigations into the cause of the disaster. The State Council, Chinas cabinet, has sent a working group to Shenzhen to help coordinate rescue efforts. Guangdong and Shenzhen officials are aly at the site.李克强要求国土资源部和其它主要部门要派员指导地方做好抢险救援工作。同时命令查清事发原因。国务院已派出工作组到深圳,以帮助协调救援工作。广东省和深圳市的官员也已赶赴现场开展救援。More than 1,500 people, including firemen, police and health workers, are involved in the rescue operations, with more than 900 residents having been evacuated by 5 p.m.超过1500多名的消防员、警察和医护人员参与了本次救援行动,截至下午5点,现场已安全撤00多名居民。A total of 94 fire engines, 44 life-detectors, 4 drones and 13 sniffer dogs have been employed in rescue work, according to the official Weibo account of the Fire Department under the Ministry of Public Security.据公安厅下消防部门的官方微账号称,省公安消防总队已调派广州、深圳、东莞、惠州、佛山等地共11救援队4辆消防车4台生命探测仪台无人机3条搜救犬参与救援。来 /201512/417046

  MALACCA, Malaysia —When Zheng He, the seafaring eunuch explorer of the Chinese Ming dynastic court, guided boats packed with porcelain to Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, he brought giraffes back to China and founded stockades along the shipping lanes of Southeast Asia.马来西亚马六甲——郑和是中国明朝的宦官,也是一位航海探险家,他率领着满载瓷器的船队抵达了非洲和阿拉伯半岛,把长颈鹿带回了中国,同时也在东南亚航道的沿岸修建了城寨。One of those tropical bases was here in Malacca, now a modest town of preserved pink Portuguese colonial buildings, Chinese merchant homes and Hindu and Buddhist temples on the west coast of Malaysia.其中一个热带基地就位于马六甲,现在它是马来西亚西海岸边上一座规模不大的城市,保留着粉红色的葡萄牙殖民时期建筑、中国商人的宅邸,以及印度教和佛教寺庙。In the 15th century, this was the midway point on the maritime crossing between China and the lands along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Here, sailors from Zheng He’s fleets built homes and storehouses on the Straits of Malacca. Only one-tenth of the crew members who set out from China returned to their homeland.15世纪时,它是贯穿中国与印度洋西部沿岸的海上通路的中间点。郑和船队的水手在马六甲海峡修建了房屋和仓库。从中国出发的船员,只有十分之一回到了中囀?Some scholars and business people in Malaysia and neighboring Singapore, which have significant ethnic Chinese populations, now want to ensure that Zheng He’s name is as synonymous with Malacca as it is with China. At least two guesthouses in Malacca bear his name, rendered as Cheng Ho in Malaysia. A large replica of a junk, or Chinese ship, covered with billboards rises from a crossroads in the old town.目前,在马来西亚及其有着很多华裔人口的邻国新加坡,一些学者和企业界人士,努力要让郑和的名字成为马六甲的代名词,正如他的名字一直与中国紧密连系一样。马六甲至少有两家宾馆以他的名字命名。在老城区的一个十字路口,矗立着一艘中式帆船的巨大复制品,上面覆盖着广告牌。But the real centerpiece of the Zheng He revival is a sprawling two-story red building called the Cheng Ho Cultural Museum built on the grounds of eight former shop houses. It aims to give visitors the definitive narrative of the life and times of Zheng He, including his sojourns in Malaysia. The museum’s appeal and reputation extend to Zheng He’s motherland: Last year, Jia Qinglin, a top Chinese Communist Party official, visited.但是,郑和文化馆才是郑和热再次兴起的真正体现。它是一处不规则的红色二层建筑物,前面有八个门面。其目的是向游客明确介绍郑和的生平和那个时代,其中包括他在马来西亚停留期间。这个文化馆的魅力和声誉传回了郑和的祖国:去年,中国共产党最高层官员贾庆林参观了这家文化馆。“Cheng Ho’s voyages contributed a lot to the Malacca Empire,said the museum’s founder, Tan Ta Sen, a scholar and entrepreneur in Singapore who is president of the International Zheng He Society. “Without the support of the Ming, Malacca’s history would have been rewritten.”“郑和对马六甲帝国贡献良多,”文化馆创办人陈达生说。他是新加坡学者和企业家,也是国际郑和学会会长。“如果没有明朝的持,马六甲的历史就会改写。”A Chinese historian, Zheng Yijun, at the Institute of Oceanology under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that Zheng He brought the lifestyle of the Chinese to the area. “It is evident in the local history of Malacca,he said. “Around that time, people started wearing Chinese style clothing. The Chinese also married local people. The two cultures merged and the Chinese became part of the local society.”中国科学院海洋研究所的历史学家郑一钧说,郑和给这片区域带来了中国的生活方式。“在马六甲当地的历史,这种影响很明显,”他说。“在这段时间里,人们开始穿中式装。中国人也和当地人通婚。两种文化发生融合,中国人成为了当地社会的组成部分。”The museum was founded on the site of the old government depot, which had warehouses and granaries on the west bank of the river. An account by Ma Huan, an Arabic-language translator who accompanied Zheng He on three expeditions, said an inner wall protected the warehouses, while an outer wall with four watchtowers surrounded the entire compound. Guards with bells did night patrols.郑和文化馆是在官厂旧址上修建的,它在河的西岸设有库房和粮仓。曾陪同郑和三次下西洋的马欢是名阿拉伯语翻译,根据他的记录,有一道内墙保护着库房,外墙则围绕整个建筑,带有四个瞭望塔。带着铃铛的卫士在夜间巡逻。Ma Huan also wrote, according to a translation by J. V. G. Mills, that the town had “tigers which turn into men; they enter the markets and walk about mixing with people; after they have been recognized, they are captured and killed.”根据J·V·G·米尔J. V. G. Mills)的翻译,马欢还写道,镇上有“老虎变成的男人;他们进入集市,混迹于人群中;他们被认出后,遭到了捕杀。”The museum officially opened in 2005, timed to the 600th anniversary of the start of Zheng He’s seven voyages to the Indian Ocean, which took place from 1405 to 1433. Zheng He died at age 62 as he returned home on the last of those. Shipmates wrapped his body in a white shroud and flung it into the ocean.郑和文化馆正式开放是005年,郑和首次下西洋的600周年。从1405433年间,郑和七次下西洋。在最后一次回国途中2岁的郑和与世长辞。同船船员用白布将尸体包裹好,抛入海中。As the museum was being built, workers found five ancient wells on the site. Two had Ming artifacts, including shards of porcelain. One of the wells sits by the lobby cafe. The interior of the wells were lined with granite blocks. “This type of practice can be found throughout places visited by the admiral,Mr. Tan said.郑和文化馆兴建的时候,工人在工地发现了五口古井。其中两口中有明代文物,包括瓷器碎片。其中一口井位于文化馆大堂的咖啡厅。井的内壁以花岗石块衬垫。“在郑和去过的各个地方,都发现有这样的做法,”陈达生说。Mention of Zheng He can evoke strong reactions. Many Chinese speak of him with reverence, citing him as a pioneer who temporarily established China as a sea power. In the West, his legacy has been the subject of debate, largely fueled by a best-selling book by Gavin Menzies, 421: The Year China Discovered the World.Many historians have criticized the book, published in 2002, for asserting with scant evidence that Zheng He traveled well beyond East Africa and reached the Americas decades ahead of Christopher Columbus.提到郑和,可以引起人们的强烈反应。很多中国人对他心怀崇敬,称他是一位先驱者,让中国暂时性地成了海上强国。在西方,郑和的功业一直是人们争论的话题,这在很大程度上是拜加文·孟席斯(Gavin Menzies)的畅销书所赐。这002年出版的421:中国发现世界1421: The Year China Discovered the World)遭到了很多历史学家的批评,因为它在据很不充分的情况下,就断言郑和的海上行程远远超出了东非,到达了美洲,比克里斯托弗·哥伦布(Christopher Columbus)还早数十年。But no one doubts his presence in Malacca, which he visited at least five times. “He stayed in this building here,said David Khor, a museum guide. “He built up Malacca. Before, it was small and backward.”但没有人会怀疑郑和到过马六甲,他至少五次抵达这里。“郑和在这里的时候,就住在这栋建筑里,”文化馆导游戴维·霍尔(David Khor)说。“他建起了马六甲。之前它是个又小又落后的地方。”More than 95 percent of the mosques in Malacca have a strong Chinese architectural influence, Mr. Tan said. More important, Zheng He and the Yongle Emperor, the ruler of China at the time, helped the native people of Malacca stand up to the kingdom of Thailand.陈达生说,在马六甲,95%以上的清真寺都深受中国建筑的影响。更重要的是,郑和与当时的中国统治者明成祖协助了马六甲当地人抗击暹罗王囀?“The tribal chief was recognized by the Yongle Emperor as the ruler of his kingdom,said Mr. Zheng, the Chinese historian. “With that recognition, the Thai didn’t dare invade Malacca anymore. Zheng He is remembered by the people of Malacca as the one who helped them gain independence.”“明成祖承认当地的部落首领是王国的统治者,”中国历史学者郑一钧说。“在此之后,暹罗就不敢再侵犯马六甲了。马六甲人认为是郑和帮助他们获得了独立,将他铭记在心。”Zheng He bestowed on the chief two silver seals, a hat, a girdle and a robe, Ma Huan wrote. Then he placed a stone tablet on the site before building the stockade.马欢写道,郑和赠给部落首领“双台银印、冠带袍”。然后,在当地“建碑封域”。Artifacts in the museum recount other aspects of the Zheng He story. A bell, presented by Zheng He to a temple in Fujian Province of China in 1431, before his final trip to Africa, was a supplication for a safe journey. A glass case houses the tools used during that era to turn a boy into a eunuch: a dagger, a rope, a candle and an urn (to store the private parts). There was “no anesthetic, no pain killers,Mr. Khor said. “Very painful.”文化馆里的展品呈现了郑和故事的其他层面431年,在最后一次前往非洲之前,郑和向福建的一座寺庙赠送了一口钟,以祈求一路平安。一个玻璃柜里陈列着那个时代把男孩变成宦官的工具:一把匕首、一根绳子、一蜡烛和一个缸子(用来盛放割下的私处)。“没有麻醉剂,没有止痛药,”霍尔说。“非常痛苦。”Zheng He was born into a prominent Muslim family in southwest China and was made into a eunuch after being captured at age 13 by an invading army of the Ming court. Zheng He then served Zhu Di, who later became the Yongle Emperor.郑和出生于中国西南部一个显赫的穆斯林家族3岁时,他被来犯的明军俘获,成了一名宦官。之后,郑和侍奉朱棣,也就是后来的明成祖。For the Chinese, the reputation of Zheng He rests on his role as a peaceful envoy of the Ming who sought to build diplomatic relations with far-flung kingdoms. As modern-day China’s rise leads to friction with other Asian nations, some scholars cite Zheng He as evidence of China’s historical goal of global peace.对中国人而言,郑和的声誉在于其充当了明朝的和平使者,寻求与遥远的王国建立邦交。随着当今中国的崛起引发与其他一些亚洲国家的擦,一些学者以郑和为例,明中国在历史上向来以世界和平为目标。“The Europeans started a storm of blood with their long voyages, robbing and pillaging along the way,said Zhuang Guotu, a history professor at Xiamen University in southeast China. “Zheng He was fundamentally different from them.”“欧洲人通过长途航行掀起了腥风血雨,一路强取豪夺,”厦门大学历史学教授庄国土说。“郑和跟他们有着本质的差别。”Other scholars have argued that Zheng He’s voyages were military expeditions carried out by soldiers representing an expansionist Ming Empire. “They were military missions with strategic aims,wrote Geoffrey Wade, a scholar at the National University of Singapore, in a 2004 paper published by the university’s Asia Research Institute.不过,另有一些学者认为,郑和的航海实际上是由士兵进行的军事远征,代表的是明王朝奉行的扩张主义。“它们是带有战略目标的军事任务,”新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)的学者韦杰夫(Geoff Wade)在该校亚洲研究所(Asia Research Institute)004年发表的一篇论文中写道。Mr. Wade wrote that the stockade built by Zheng He in Malacca was proof of the military nature of the expeditions. “To enable these great fleets to maintain the Pax Ming in the immediate region and sail through the Indian Ocean to Africa, it was necessary to create staging posts in what is today Southeast Asia,he wrote.韦杰夫说,郑和在马六甲筑造的城寨实了探险行动的军事本质。“要用这些庞大的舰队维持周边地区的‘大明’统治,打开通过印度洋前往非洲的通道,在今天的东南亚一带修建中途集结地是有必要的,”他写道。But Mr. Tan said it is today’s global order that is militarized, “chaoticand obsessed with what the West calls “zero-sum games.These days, he said, “one must conquer your opposition instead of finding all-win solutions in the Cheng Ho spirit.”但陈达生说,这种军事化的、“混乱的”、痴迷于西方所说的“零和弈”的全球秩序,是今天才有的。他说如今“你必须征你的对手,而不是本着郑和精神去寻找一种共同受益的解决方案。”来 /201501/352913

  The European Unions foreign policy chief has called for an immediate truce in eastern Ukraine, where fresh fighting has killed three people, according to officials.欧盟外交政策主管呼吁乌克兰东部交战各方立即停火。当地官员说,最新战斗造成3人死亡。Witnesses saw at least three bodies outside a hospital that was hit by shells in the rebel-held city of Donetsk on Wednesday.反政府武装控制的顿涅茨克市一家医院星期三受到到炮击,目击者看到至少三具尸体。In a statement, the EUs Federica Mogherini said the ;fighting, provoked by the continued separatist offensive, notably around Debaltseve, is causing great human suffering and undermines all efforts aimed at a political solution.;欧盟外交政策主管费代丽卡#8226;莫盖里尼说,分离分子连续发动攻势引发战斗,特别是在德巴尔切夫附近的战斗造成巨大痛苦,破坏了推动政治解决的努力;The shelling of civilians, wherever it happens, is a grave violation of international humanitarian law. Artillery should immediately be withdrawn from residential areas,; she continued.她还说,无论在什么地方,炮击平民都严重违反国际人道主义法律。火炮应立即撤离居民区。Mogherini called for the establishment of a ;local temporary truce for a minimum of three days, taking immediate effect.;莫格里尼呼吁双方立即停火,停火期至少三天。Fighting has raged in the self-declared separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, especially around the Ukrainian-controlled town of Debaltseve, since the rebels launched a new offensive late last month and peace talks in Belarus between the two sides collapsed Saturday.自从反政府武装上个月底发动新一轮进攻,以及双方上周六在白俄罗斯的和平谈判破裂之后,分离分子自行宣布独立的顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克爆发了激烈战斗,特别是在乌克兰控制的城镇德巴尔切夫周围。来 /201502/358984

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