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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2017年12月14日 02:37:48
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Laughter research has found that only a small percentage oflaughter, less than 20%, is a sincere response to someones humor.对笑容的研究表明只有小部分—不超过20%的笑容是发自肺腑的对于某人幽默的回应。In fact, laughter is primarily asocial signal, as opposed to an emotional outburst.事实上,笑容主要是一种社交讯号,而非感情释放。People are 30 times more likely to laugh in a group setting than when they are alone, leadingobservers to conclude laughter has a primarily social function.人们在人群中笑的次数是他们在独处时的30倍甚至更多,使研究人员由此推断笑容首先具有一种社交作用。For instance, theres “polite” laughter. How often have you found yourself laughing at someonesattempt at being funny in order to spare their feelings or make them feel good?例如,“礼节性”的笑容。你发现你有多少次对别人试图表现的幽默报之一笑,只是为了照顾他们的情绪或者让他们感觉更好?Research has also found that women tend to laugh a good deal more than men.研究还发现女人比男人发笑的次数更多。And malespeakers tend to elicit more laughter than female speakers.而男性演说家比女性更倾向于逗人发笑。Laughter may very well be a sign of power dynamics between people, signaling dominance andsubmission, acceptance and rejection.笑容是人们之间一个非常好的权力演变信号,代表配和屈,接受和拒绝。Certainly, that seems to be the case when someone islaughing at you rather than with you.当然,这似乎出现在当别人嘲笑你而不是和你一起笑的情况下。 201402/275164

  

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  Finance and Economics;Centrally cleared derivatives;Clear and present danger;财经;集中清算衍生品交易;迫在眉睫的危机;Clearing-houses may add danger as well as efficiency;清算所的危险和效率料并行上升;Stock exchanges have not been lucky in love recently. Deutsche Borses proposed merger with NYSE Euronext was blocked by regulators in February. Romances between the exchanges of Singapore and Australia, and between the Toronto bourse and the London Stock Exchange (LSE), have also fizzled.券交易所近期的“联姻”不那么顺利。德国券交易所( Deutsche Borse)与纽约泛欧交易所集团(NYSE Euronext)的合并提议2月份被监管当局否决。而新加坡和澳大利亚券交易所的联姻以及多伦多券交易所和伦敦券交易所( LSE)的联姻也都已搁浅。Tired of such dalliances, the LSE has taken up with the plumber. On April 3rd its shareholders backed its plan to take control of LCH.Clearnet, a big clearing-house. Clearing-houses are the back-room wizards of the exchange-traded securities and derivatives markets. They ensure that once a deal has been agreed upon it will be honoured, even if one of the parties goes bust. The 2008 financial crisis proved their worth. Interbank markets seized up because no bank knew how big a risk the other was carrying, but the clearing-houses had a much better idea of their exposures and could rapidly demand more cash or other collateral from counterparties.LSE厌倦了此类周旋, 开始对“管道工”产生兴趣。4月3日该集团股东持掌控LCH.Clearnet的计划,LCH.Clearnet是一家大型清算所(欧洲最大的衍生品独立清算所)。清算所是股票交易和衍生品市场的幕后向导。他们确保一旦交易达成,就会生效(即买卖双方分别与交易所发生关系),即使交易一方破产。2008年发生的金融危机明了清算所的价值。间市场失灵,因不知彼此担负多大的风险,但清算所对其敞口却知之甚详,进而可快速的要求交易方提供更多现金或其他抵押品。Regulators now want clearing-houses to act as central counterparties (CCPs) for as many derivatives transactions as possible. Their biggest target is the mountain of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives products, whose notional amounts outstanding, reckoned at around 700 trillion dollar in June 2011, easily dwarf the 83 trillion dollar of derivatives on exchanges.目前监管当局想让清算所扮演中央对手方(CCPs)的角色,尽可能多的为衍生品交易进行清算。其最大的目标是大量的衍生品柜台交易(OTC),2011年7月OTC名义总值约达700万亿美元,而交易所的衍生品交易名义总值为83万亿美元,明显低很多。Some OTC derivatives are aly centrally cleared: LCH.Clearnets Swap Clear service has 290 trillion dollar of interest-swaps on its books. Many are not. A G20 resolution in set a framework for moving standardised OTC products into clearing-houses. This is being applied through bits of legislation worldwide, most importantly via the Dodd-Frank Act in America and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) in Europe, which was voted through the European Parliament on March 29th. Any remaining bilateral deals would be much more expensive for banks to carry on their books.部分衍生品柜台交易已被集中清算: LCH.Clearnet的掉期清算业务中利率掉期账面值达290万亿美元。但多数OTC衍生品交易并未进行清算。年颁布的一项20国集团决议为标准化OTC产品进入清算所制定了一个框架。这一框架可通过世界范围内的零星立法来实施,最重要的立法有美国的多德·弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank Act)和欧洲的欧洲市场基础设施监管条例(EMIR),该条例于3月29日获欧洲议会投票通过。剩下的双边交易对来说都要昂贵得多。All of which means that the volume of business flowing to clearing-houses, and the fees they can charge, will rise. For a stock exchange like the LSE, whose trading volume in cash equities is being eroded by much cheaper multilateral platforms, it makes sense to risk overpaying—the deal values LCH.Clearnet at around 800m (1.1 billion dollar)—to secure a business that is almost bound to grow by regulatory fiat.所有这些都意味着流向清算所的业务量,及其收取的费用会增加。对于像LSE这样的券交易所来说,其股票现货交易量将受到更便宜的多边交易平台打压,(因此)冒险多掏钱购入一项在监管法令下势必会增长的业务是有意义的。LSE购入LCH.Clearnet 股权的交易额约达8亿欧元(11亿美元)。Others are also crowding round. NYSE Euronexts merger with Deutsche Borse would have plugged it into Eurex Clearing, the German exchanges CCP. Now it will work on making NYSE Liffe Clearing, which clears the trades on Londons Liffe futures exchange, a full CCP. On March 28th it announced plans for its continental derivatives-clearing activity to migrate there by early 2014, subject to regulatory approval (its continental cash equities will continue to be cleared by LCH.Clearnet).其他交易所亦前仆后继。纽约泛欧交易所集团与德国券交易所的合并本可与欧洲期交所清算公司( Eurex Clearing)拉上关系,欧洲期交所清算公司是德国券交易所的CCP。目前纽约泛欧交易所集团将致力于打造泛欧交易所清算所(NYSE Liffe Clearing),该清算所清算伦敦国际期货金融交易所(Liffe)的期货交易,完全是一个CCP。3月28日LSE宣布计划在2014年初将其衍生品清算业务扩张至欧洲大陆,而这取决于监管当局的许可(其欧洲大陆股票现货交易将继续在LCH.Clearnet进行清算)。This will create new concentrations of risk. If the CCPs consolidate into three or four big players in Europe, and a handful more worldwide, that will be a lot of risk tied up in a few institutions. Since they are involved in cross-border business and meant to be “interoperable”—ie, allowing access to a wide number of counterparties—the responsibility for the bail-out of a CCP may not be a clear-cut geographical one. All this should be sorted out before the game goes much further.新风险集中将应运而生。如果欧洲的CCPs整合成三或四个大机构,全球则整合成稍多几个,那么大量风险就将会被集中在几个机构上面。因为这些机构的业务涉及跨境,意味着会“相互影响”,即业务向更广泛的交易方开放,那么要负责救助一个CCP,或许就不是地理上明确划分的那一个了。在进一步整合之前,所有这些问题都应解决。Another looming problem is the quality of collateral that CCPs take. Apart from cash, the most common type of collateral posted with clearing-houses is government bonds. These no longer have the “risk-free” status they used to enjoy. As more deals migrate to CCPs, the pressure to find suitable collateral could intensify (by how much depends on the extent to which clearing enables offsetting transactions to reduce the amount of collateral needed). There is a risk that clearing-houses could expose themselves to assets which are not as stable as they should be.另一个若隐若现的问题是CCP接受的抵押品质量问题。除现金外,清算所接受的最普遍抵押品是政府债券。而这些债券已不再是过去享有的“无风险”地位。随着更多交易转向CCP,其找寻合适抵押品的压力料加剧(这多少取决于哪一种清算令对冲交易削减所需抵押品数量的程度)。这就存在一种风险:清算所面临的资产敞口不如应该那样稳定。Clearers swear blind that they would never relax their standards. “Were not plumbers, were risk-management firms,” says Ian Axe, the boss of LCH.Clearnet. This is true, but it and many other CCPs are run for profit, and are bound to steer a course between risk and reward. The European Securities and Markets Authority is supposed to set new capital rules and collateral standards for CCPs by June 30th. What regulators give with one hand, they may take away with the other.清算所誓言决不会放宽标准。LCH.Clearnet老板Ian Axe表示:“我们不是管道工,我们是风险管理公司”。虽然这是事实,但LCH.Clearnet和其他CCP都是逐利的公司,定会在风险和收益之间前行。欧洲券与市场(European Securities and Markets Authority, 简称ESMA)应在7月30日前为CCP制定新的资本规则和抵押标准。上有政策,也许下就有对策。 /201306/245311

  Business商业报道A Mexican start-up一个墨西哥式的开始Border buzz边境上的嗡嗡声A small dronemaker is a fine example of cross-border co-operation一个小小的遥控飞行器是跨境合作的一个典型范例。FEW companies embody the spirit of Mexican-American co-operation as much as 3DRobotics, founded by a Mexican, Jordi Muoz, and an American, Chris Anderson.很少有公司像3D机器人公司,由一个墨西哥人和一个美国人建立,一样象征了美国墨西哥裔合作精神。The factory in Tijuana where they make their small drones is so close to the border that they could, if they were allowed, fly across to San Diego.在蒂华纳的工厂,那里他们制作他们小小的遥控飞行器,距离边境非常近以至于它们,如果允许的话,可以飞越边境去圣地亚哥。That is where the firms boffins engineer them.那是他们公司的工程师。Mr Muoz, born a few hours south of Tijuana, grew up dreaming of building robotic flying machines, but only managed to do so after moving to California.Mr Muoz,出生在离蒂华纳南部开车要几个小时的地方,从小梦想着制造一个遥控飞行器,但仅仅在他搬到了加利福尼亚后才实现这个梦想。He says he could not have succeeded without the ed States technological prowess and entrepreneurial culture.他说道如果没有美国的技术实力和创业文化他是不能够成功的。Yet chicanadas—the knack Mexicans reckon they have for using whatever is at hand to solve a problem—were also crucial.但是墨西哥人自己的思维方法—墨西哥人认为他们拥有的利用任何手边的条件来解决问题的做事窍门——也很关键。He began to make progress in 2006, when the imminent launch of Apples iPhone triggered a plunge in the cost of the motion sensors he needed to build his dream.他在2006年开始有进展,当时苹果的iphone即将发行引起了对他需要的构建梦想的动作传感器的经费投入。He found that in America he got plenty of encouragement.他发现在美国他得到了许多的鼓励。Unlike Mexico, it has a culture that lets you believe you can be the best in the world, he says.不像在墨西哥,它有一个让你相信你能够成为世界上最优秀的人的文化,他说道。It is easy to buy supplies on eBay—and, again in contrast to Mexico, the postal system delivers them quickly and reliably.在eBay上很容易买到供应的材料,并且,与墨西哥相反的是,邮政系统交付货物迅速可靠。Mexican bureaucracy makes it hard to get started: even a tiny garage start-up requires an industrial permit.墨西哥的官僚主义让它很难起步:即使是一个小小的车库的运营也需要工业许可。Mr Muoz says most Americans dont trust Mexicans very much;Mr Muoz说大部分美国人并不非常相信墨西哥人;but he credits Mr Andersons untypical background for helping him to see beyond the racial stereotype and write a 500 cheque for Mr Muoz the first time he met him: The best 500 hes ever spent.但是他相信安德森的非典型背景,帮助他打破种族思维定势;并且在安德森第一次见他的时候就开了一张500美元的票给他:他曾经花过的最值的500美元。As for chicanadas, he says his first plastics were moulded in a toaster.至于墨西哥人的诀窍,他说他的第一次作品模型是在面包机理做出来的。Before the firm had its own premises, Mr Muoz got some friends to assemble the drones in their kitchen.在这家公司得到自己许可之前,Mr Muoz和他的朋友聚集在他们的厨房装配无人机。From such humble beginnings, 3DRobotics hopes its pilotless craft will be used for anything from monitoring crops to lifeguard duties on beaches.从如此低的起点开始,3D机器人公司希望它的无人机技术被用来监视任何东西,从沙滩上的人群到救生员职责。Its neither a San Diego firm nor a Tijuana firm, says Mr Muoz. It will always be both.它既不是一个圣地亚哥公司也不是一个蒂华纳公司,Mr Muoz。它总是两者兼有。 /201311/262947

  

  Books and Arts; Book Review;History of diplomacy;Dealing with the enemy;文艺;书评;外交往事;应敌之策;George Kennan invented the American post-war policy of “containment” of the Soviet Union. His biography, 30 years in the making, fills in the detail;乔治·凯南是战后美国对苏“遏制”政策的始作俑者。他这本耗时30年而成的传记,充满了“遏制”政策的点点滴滴;George F. Kennan: An American Life. By John Lewis Gaddis.乔治·凯南:大国之策 约翰·加迪斯著。Three decades ago George Kennan— former American ambassador to Moscow, multilingual diplomat and conceptualiser of “containment”, the heart of his countrys foreign policy towards the Soviet Union—agreed to allow an American cold-war historian, John Lewis Gaddis, to serve as his biographer. Kennan had decamped from public service to the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton more than 20 years earlier and was aly 78 years old. When he began giving Mr Gaddis interviews and stacks of personal papers in 1981, their understanding was that the biography would appear in the presumably not-too-distant future after the elder mans passing.三十年前,乔治·凯南—前美国驻莫斯科大使,掌握多种语言的外交官,美国对苏外交核心“遏制”政策的始作俑者—同意由美国冷战历史学者约翰·加迪斯为其撰写传记。那时,已78岁高龄的乔治·凯南,早退出政界在普林斯顿高级研究院从事研究已超过二十个年头。1981年起乔治·凯南开始与约翰·加迪斯会面并给予后者大堆个人资料,两人商定乔治·凯南的传记将在其过世后不久的将来面世。Decades of interviews later, Mr Gaddis, who is now 70, had become accustomed to his students “speculating sombrely about which of us might go first”. Even Kennan felt sorry for “poor John”; in 2003 he lamented the “serious burden” of his own “unnatural longevity”. It was only in 2005, when death finally claimed Kennan at the age of 101, that Mr Gaddis could begin thinking about publishing this long-awaited biography.自两人会面后的几十年里,如今已古稀之年的约翰·加迪斯已经习惯了让他的学生们“严肃地预测一下我们两个谁会先走一步“。即便是乔治·凯南也对约翰·加迪斯心怀愧疚;2003年他曾为自己的“超然长寿”带来的“不堪重负”而悲叹不已。2005年,101岁的乔治·凯南终于等到了生命的终点,也是从那时起,约翰·加迪斯才可以开始考虑出版这本经历了漫长等待的传记了。The extraordinary length of the books gestation meant that much changed between conception and publication. Had it appeared in the mid-1980s, the context would have been cold-war stalemate; in the early 1990s, celebration; a decade ago in 2001, concern about terrorism. Because “George F. Kennan: An American Life” finally arrives in the uneasy year of 2011, its context is economic misery and questions about the future of American dominance in international affairs.这本书无与伦比的超长“妊娠期”意味着其起初构思与最终出版之间的多次变更。在书中,80年代中期的背景主要是冷战僵局;90年代早期是庆祝冷战胜利;2001年之后的十年主要涉及反恐。熬到了经历漫长艰辛最终出版的2011年,背景则又成了经济困局和对美国将来是否能主导全球事务的疑问。Mr Gaddis is unequivocal on this topic. He told the New York Times in 2004 that “American imperial power…has been a remarkable force for good, for democracy, for prosperity.” He has also expressed his admiration for the former presidents, Ronald Reagan and George Bush junior, and their versions of “grand strategy”, a topic he now teaches at Yale University. All of these developments have naturally given rise to much speculation. Could Mr Gaddis, who admits that he speaks no foreign languages, get on top of the mountain of material and do credit to such an international polymath? Would his own views emerge along with Kennans? The 784-page answer to both these questions is yes.约翰·加迪斯对每一个话题都不含糊。2004年他曾告诉《纽约时报》的记者:“美利坚帝国有种非常不平凡的力量,一种使之优秀、民主、繁荣的力量。”同时他也表达了对前总统里根和小布什以及他们的“伟大战略”的敬佩之意,这也是他在耶鲁大学教授的课题。这些言语自然引起了人们进一步的猜测。承认自己不懂外语的约翰·加迪斯,能否征堆积如山的资料,为乔治·凯南这样的国际大家赢得赞颂?他的观点是否来自乔治·凯南?这部厚达784页的作品肯定的回答了这两个问题。Mr Gaddis has mastered the sources that came his way over the decades. The resulting biography is engaging and lucid. The first half of the book almost has the sweep of a novel. Readers join Kennan in Germany as the Nazis rise; in Norway in 1931 as the awkward young man meets the parents of his fiancée, to whom he would remain married for 73 years; in the Soviet Union in 1933 as he establishes the first American embassy; in Czechoslovakia as Adolf Hitler arrives and the world descends into another war; and back in Moscow again in 1945 when he receives skin-crawling personal compliments from Joseph Stalin on his Russian language skills. The chapter detailing Kennans breakthrough—achieved by redesigning American foreign policy at a stroke, via his 5,000-word “Long Telegram” from Moscow to Washington, DC, in 1946—is particularly gripping. As he himself put it: “My reputation was made. My voice now carried.”约翰·加迪斯掌握着几十年里符合自己观点的资源,所创作出的传记引人入胜又清晰明了。传记的前半部读起来几乎就是一部小说的翻版。读者们一起与乔治·凯南在纳粹兴起时造访德国;1931年在挪威,一起与这位笨拙的青年会见之后陪伴了他73载未婚妻的父母;1933年与之一起建立美国第一个驻苏联大使馆;和他一道与希特勒一起来到捷克斯洛伐克并目睹了第二次世界大战;之后又一块在斯大林对其俄语技巧令人起鸡皮疙瘩般的恭维下于1945年返回莫斯科。而描写乔治·凯南事业取得重大突破的章节—在1946年通过其从莫斯科发往华盛顿的5,000字“长电”,一举改写了美国外交政策—尤为精。就如同乔治·凯南自己给自己的评价一样:“功成名就,四海扬声。”Before this, Kennan was a promising young officer in the American foreign service; after it, he joined the top ranks of American strategists. His arguments convinced the Truman administration that efforts to continue wartime co-operation with Russia were fruitless. America should recognise the Soviet Union as a new kind of enemy, one seeking to destroy “our traditional way of life”. Rather than fighting a conventional war, America would need to contain Soviet hostility firmly and consistently over the long term. As America resisted Moscow more and more, Kennan felt it was crucial that his country maintain the “health and vigour of our own society” and not become a garrison state.而在那之前,乔治·凯南不过是美国外交界里颇有前途的小青年,之后则位列顶级战略家之层。他的论据实了杜鲁门政府继续与苏联战时合作的努力终究无果。美国应当把苏联做为一个新的,一个试图摧毁“我们传统的生活方式”的敌人来认识,应当放弃传统的战争方式,坚决地包纳苏联的敌意并长期持之以恒。随着美苏争霸的愈演愈烈,乔治·凯南意识到,对美国来讲最关键的是保持“我们这个社会的健康与活力”而不是变成一个堡垒式的国家。After the “Long Telegram”, Kennan returned to Washington and founded the State Departments influential Policy Planning Staff. But, according to Mr Gaddis, his prestige had peaked by 1948. After that, Kennan became increasingly sidelined for opposing what he judged to be excessive militarisation of his containment strategy. Yet he continued to condemn overly militarised policies for the rest of his life.“长电”之后,乔治·凯南返回华盛顿,组建了国务院颇具影响力的机构政策计划处。不过根据约翰·加迪斯的讲述,其名望在1948年达到了顶峰。之后由于抵制其认为的过度军事化遏制政策而逐步边缘化。而乔治·凯南终其余生都在谴责过度军事化的政策。Kennan took particular offence at the attitude of the Reagan administration, which he viewed as “simply childish, inexcusably childish, unworthy of people charged with the responsibility for conducting the affairs of a great power in an endangered world.” Nor did the end of the cold war change his mind. In 1992 Kennan made a point of stating that “nobody ‘won the cold war”. It had been a long, costly tragedy, “fuelled on both sides by unreal and exaggerated estimates of the intentions and strength of the other side.”对于里根政府,乔治·凯南的态度尤其地冒犯,他认为里根“简单幼稚,无法理解地天真,根本不配担负起在有危险的世界指导一个超级大国事务如此之重任。”冷战结束后他也没有改变自己的看法。1992年乔治·凯南曾阐述自己的观点,认为“冷战无赢家”。这场旷日持久,代价高昂的悲剧,“将对另一方意图和力量进行了不现实和扩大估算的双方同时埋葬。”Mr Gaddis disagrees. He closes his study by condemning Kennan for having “blinded” himself to the fact that, in Mr Gaddiss opinion, Reagan brought Kennans “strategy to its successful conclusion”. If Kennan were alive, he would probably still disagree, and not without reason. If the elder mans concern for the costs of bellicose foreign policy, rather than the younger mans enthusiasm for imperial exercise of American power, had dominated the last decade, it would have made for a sounder grand strategy. In ways that this biography seems not entirely to appreciate, Kennans far-sighted opposition to American over-militarisation makes his personal career history less gripping than his legacy.约翰·加迪斯对此并不认同。在传记结尾他责备了乔治·凯南对事实的“视而不见”,按照约翰·加迪斯的观点,是里根的采纳“成就”了乔治·凯南的战略。但是如果乔治·凯南还健在,他可能还会反对,而且还自有道理。如果这位老人担心的是好战外交政策所付出的代价,而不是在其后的十年起决定性作用的青年人对美国超级力量运用的热情,那么它将会是一个更加合理的宏伟战略。如此来看这部传记对乔治·凯南也不全是赞誉,乔治·凯南颇有远见地反对美国过度军事化使其个人职业生涯的精程度比其传记略逊一筹。 /201304/236955

  

  

  Afghanistans election阿富汗选举A useful crisis有效的转折A fudge between two feuding presidential candidates may offer a political road map两个长期不和的总统候选人相互挤兑,这或许能提供一个政治路线图HOLDING a presidential election in Afghanistan only months before the withdrawal of Western combat forces was bound to be risky—even before one of the candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, reacted to preliminary results showing a suspiciously big lead for his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, by alleging “industrial-scale” fraud. The political crisis could have plunged the country into chaos and even war.于西方作战部队撤离前几个月在阿富汗举行总统选举注定是充满风险的。候选人之一的阿卜杜拉断言,对手阿什拉夫的持率远远领先于他是可疑的,是“工业”欺诈。这场政治危机可能会使该国经济陷入混乱甚至战争。Yet this dangerous moment could turn out to be oddly productive. Disaster has been averted thanks to the banging-together of heads by Americas secretary of state, John Kerry, and to the good sense of the presidential candidates, who stared into the abyss and retreated. Their deal points towards a political structure that should work better than the current one.然而,这一危险时刻可能会出奇地有效。由于美国国务卿约翰·克里的群策群力和陷入深渊和撤退时总统候选人们的理智,灾难得以避免。他们的策略指向更有效工作的政治结构。Come on, its Afghanistan来吧,这就是阿富汗In the first round of the election to replace Hamid Karzai as president, nearly 7m Afghans turned out to vote. But in the second, Dr Abdullah made no gain at all from the 45% of the vote he had secured in a crowded field; meanwhile, the share of his rival, Mr Ghani, leapt from 31% to 56%. Suspiciously, turnout increased by more than 1m votes. Mr Ghani has the backing of Mr Karzai, who stole the election from Dr Abdullah in . This time Dr Abdullahs backers threatened to establish a breakaway government. That might lead to civil war.在第一轮选举中,近700万阿富汗人持替换哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统。但在第二轮中,阿卜杜拉并没有在他有把握的45%领域中获得选票,与此同时,他的竞争对手阿什拉夫的持率从31%上升到56%。可疑的是,选票增加了100多万。卡尔扎伊是持阿什拉夫的,他在年的选举中从阿卜杜拉手中窃取了选举的胜利。这一次阿卜杜拉的持者们扬言要建立独立政府,这可能导致内战。Barack Obama called Dr Abdullah and threatened to stop all American military and financial aid. Dr Abdullah backed down. In return, America has promised a full, internationally supervised audit of every vote cast. The inauguration of a new president has been postponed from August 2nd to the end of the month. In truth it is not at all clear how much fraud an audit will pick up. But both candidates have promised to accept the result, and that matters more than the actual tally.巴拉克?奥巴马同阿卜杜拉联系,威胁称美国将停止所有军事和经济援助。阿卜杜拉做退缩了。作为回报,美国已承诺对投票过程进行完全的国际监督审查。新总统的就职典礼已从8月2日推迟到这个月底,事实上,还不清楚在审查过程中会发现多少舞弊行为。但两位候选人都承诺接受结果,这比实际数字更重要。As well as being a short-term fix, the deal holds out the promise of a solution to the structural problems of Afghanistans politics. Too much power resides in the office of the president. In 2004, when the constitution was ratified, extreme centralisation—for example, all provincial governors and police chiefs are appointed by the president—seemed the best way to hold the country together. Now it is pulling it apart. Political loyalties and social ties require local expression. But Mr Karzais ability to bypass institutions by forming his own network of patronage has stunted the development of Afghan democracy and done nothing to cut corruption. A bizarre voting system, crying out for reform, has prevented the formation of real political parties and resulted in a weak and fractious legislature.作为一个短期的解决方案,该协议同时提供了解决阿富汗政治结构性问题的方法。总统办公室拥有太多的权力。2004年宪法生效时,极度的中央集权—例如所有省长和警察局长由总统任命—似乎是将整个国家团结在一起的最好方式。现在,中央集权却使国家分裂了。政治忠诚和社会关系需要地域表达。但卡尔扎伊绕过机构形成自己的资助网络,阻碍阿富汗民主的发展并且未能削弱腐败。一个奇怪的迫切需要改革的投票系统,阻碍了真正的政党形成,并形成了脆弱又难以控制的立法机构。Under the deal brokered by Mr Kerry, there will be a government of national unity. The election-winner will be president, but the loser (or his nominee) will be “chief of the executive council”, a new position implying power-sharing. Then, after two years, there will be a loya jirga (a gathering of tribal elders, local power-brokers and elected officials) to approve constitutional changes that include the creation of the post of prime minister. He would rank below the president but have executive powers.根据克里的谈判交易,将会成立一个民族团结的政府。选举获胜者将成为总统,但失败者(或其指定人)将作为执行委员会的主席,,新职位意味着分权。两年之后,将会有一个尔格大会(部落长老们、地方政治掮客和民选官员们的聚会)来批准修改宪法,包括建立总理一职,该头衔低于总统但有行政权力。Such a structure would better reflect the reality of a country that is ethnically diverse, corrupt, Byzantine and more comfortable with give and take than a winner-takes-all politics. It might also offer a route out of violence for those Taliban who are not implacable ideologues but feel shut out by the present system. If Afghanistans leaders can make it work, they will be doing their country a huge service.这样的结构可以更好地反映一个国家的现状—多民族的、腐败的、拜占庭式的、更适合平等交换而不是赢者通吃的政治。它还可能给那些觉得被现有制度拒之门外的塔利班们一条远离暴力的道路。如果阿富汗领导人能使之生效,它们将会为这个国家做出巨大贡献。As so often happens in Afghanistan, everything could still go suddenly wrong. But Mr Kerry has helped ensure that a good crisis has not gone to waste.这种事情在阿富汗时有发生,一切都仍有可能突然失败。但克里确保了这个良好的转折点还没有被浪费。 /201407/314008

  Business商业报道Women in management女性管理者A word from your sponsor后台一句话的事Time for women to stop being shrinking violets at work职场女性,从此不再羞答答的I DONT know any successful women who havent had a powerful sponsor in their organisation to give them their first big break, says Avivah Wittenberg-Cox, the boss of 20-first, a consultancy that helps companies put more women into senior jobs.在一个组织里,对于女性而言,没有过硬的后台帮助她们完成人生的首次突破,还能够风生水起的,我实在是没咋地见过,阿维娃·维滕贝格-考克斯,性别顾问公司20-First总裁,如是说。That sentiment is echoed by many people who work in this field.顾问公司20-First帮助很多的公司,让更多的女性做高层领导。她的这一观点得到众多同行的呼应。But why do women need so much help?但是为啥女性需要那么多的帮助呢?Many women who climb the corporate ladder have sponsors, too.许多女性要想晋升,必须有后台,这一道理同样适用于公司。Indeed, they find it easier than women to persuade a senior colleague to sponsor them. They are also less likely to build up useful networks of contacts.确实,女性要想劝高层领导帮助自己,不是件太难的事。But women need help more because they are generally more reluctant to promote themselves.但是女性需要更多的帮助,原因就是,一般来的来说,她们不愿意推销自己。同时,她们也不大可能去建立一个对自个有用的关系网。That may help to explain why women, although they now enter white-collar jobs in much the same numbers as men in many countries, still find it so hard to get anywhere near the executive suite.这也解释了这样一个现象,在很多的国家,白领女性的数量跟男性持平,但是女性进入高管还是一个字,难。A new report, Sponsor Effect: UK, produced by the Centre for Talent Innovation, a New York think-tank, offers a detailed picture of the female talent pipeline in Britain, based on a survey of about 2,500 graduate employees, mostly of large companies.一份新的报告,《后台效应:英国》,制作者为纽约智囊团人才创新中心,详述描绘了英国女性人才的分布状况。这份报告的制作,是基于对2500个左右研究生雇员的调查,且她们基本上都来自大公司。It notes that although women in Britain account for 57% of new recruits to white-collar jobs, they make up just 17% of executive directors and a mere 4% of chief executives of the FTSEs 100 biggest companies.它指出,虽然女性新雇员占白领比例57%,但是在富时指数的100个大公司里,执行理事也就17%,首席执行官只有可怜的4%。It is not that the women lack ambition, says the report.报告表示不是说女性没有雄性壮志。No less than 79% of senior women in the sample said they aspired to a top job and 91% were keen to be promoted.调查者中,多达79%的大龄女性表示希望成为高管,91%希望得到晋升。Nor, say the authors, are they necessarily held back by family responsibilities:作者称,家庭责任并不一定会拖累她们:nearly two in five of those aged 40 or over had no children.年龄在40或是以上的,接近五分之二,是没有孩子的,有五分之三的女性是有孩子的,这个确实不假。Three in five of the over-40s did have children, and talented women who quit work to raise kids are not included in the sample.那些为了照顾孩子而放弃工作的才女们并不在这个范围之内。Still, the surveys main finding is striking.仍然,这个调查的主要发现还是会吓人一跳。Only 16% of the sample had sponsors, defined as people several levels above them who give them career advice, introduce them to contacts and help them get promotions.调查者中,只有16%的人有后台,后台的意思指的是那些比她们的位子要高那么几级的人,在工作当中给予她们建议,给她们接触的机会,帮助她们晋升。Having a sponsor dramatically improves a womans career prospects.有个后台,女性在职场上的路要好走非常多。The British report is a follow-on from a similar study by the CTI on America, The Sponsor Effect, published last year by the Harvard Business Review.这份英国报告,其实是美国CTI的一份类似研究的后续。The CTI is now working on India;这份研究的名称为《后台效应》,去年在期刊《哈佛商业》上出版。Germany may come after that.CTI现在正在对印度进行研究;印度之后可能就是德国。It is also preparing a road map to make it easier for women everywhere to find sponsors.CTI同时也在酝酿一幅公路图,目的就是为了让各地的女性更好地找到后台。Sylvia Ann Hewlett, the CTIs boss, who co-wrote the report, says there are some differences between countries.西尔维亚·安·休利特,CTI老板,是此份报告的共同撰写者。她说,各个国家的情况真的还不大一样。But the broad picture is similar everywhere:但是从更大范围来看,情况其实差不多:women underestimate the importance of sponsorship and fail to cultivate business relationships effectively.女性低估了后台的力量,并且没能够有效地培养商业关系。This may be true, but networking takes time, often after hours.这可能是对的,但是关系网的维护还是需要时间的,尤其是下班时间。Are women with children equally willing to put in that extra time?那么,女性会把跟孩子在一起的时间花在培养关系网上吗?Drawing attention to the problems of women in upper management makes a useful change from the usual lament about the lack of women on boards.把注意力集中到高管女性的问题上,而不是像往常一样,哀叹董事会的女性怎么就这么少,要有用的多了。The scarcity of both is a symptom of something bigger:高管女性和董事会女性的稀缺只是问题的一个症状,更大的问题是:a lot of employers neither know nor care how many senior women they have working for them.许多老板对这个有多少女性在为他工作上,不关心也不在乎。Studies show a correlation between more women in senior positions and superior company performance, though it is hard to know whether more sexual diversity improves performance or top-notch firms promote more women.研究显示,女性高管越多,公司的表现越好,这之间是有一定的关系的,虽然还不是很确定,到底是性别多样化促进绩效呢,还是一流的公司更多的提拔女性呢。How much can sponsorship help?后台到底能有多大用?Ms Wittenberg-Cox is glum.维滕贝格·考克斯女士不清楚。She says there have been so many initiatives that many firms suffer from diversity fatigue,她说,有太多的公司因为性别单一而缺乏主动性,but none has dealt with the appalling reality of the pipeline.但是并没有什么人来解决这个可怕的人才分布事实。The only remedy, she reckons, is a change of thinking at the top.她觉得,唯一的解救方法,恐怕就是高层的变动。 /201307/248143

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